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Baum
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Everything posted by Baum
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I guess that's somewhat of a consensus.....
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Caveat:"locally heavier totals possible." Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
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I don't get disappointed. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
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What's been interesting over the past several days is that LOT has not done much model analysis rather opting for more a feel of the synoptic set up and perhaps a historical approach to how these things can play out to derive the event potential. In short, I don't think I've seen any consternation on their part with regards to the more sheared southern look of the globals versus the more amped approach of the hi-res models. Refreshing approach IMHO.
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2-5" on the FGEN band is conservative. Read the AFD. Pretty clear they are thinking Watch to a Warning in your neck of the woods. Though I'm long past getting caught up in the NWS designations. Today's 12Z runs will dictate that. Though NE IL looks pretty decent even with the fractured nature of this system.
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key will be where that frontogentic band takes up residence. btw....you could be in line for 6" just from lake effect. Alot of potential if it could be relaized.
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I like LOT's read on this. Even in a discombobulated manner your in line for in excess of 6". And of course still the possibility exists all factors come together for a doozy...though that is appearing less likely.
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Quad Cities afternoon afd is a fun read for winter weather aficionados. Nothing in depth just cold and snow for the foreseeable future.
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March 2017 I believe. But that was a straight LE event unlike this one which will be synoptic transferring to lake event
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by march 15th you'll be begging for spring....
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I thought it was another fine job of laying out the possibilities, while clearly stating there is still much uncertainty. As there is with any weather event. The tone has always been cautious....as it should be.
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It's typical to see at least one model hold sway as to what you think might happen. When they all trend in the same direction,despite lack of sampling it's an ominous sign. Could be as Cyclone said a case of delayed, but not denied. Plenty of ingredients in the mix.
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Per usual RC with a fine AFD at LOT. Won't post, but well worth the read for most.
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now I feel better.
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your never positive. Game Ovah!
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perspective. Though I know I'm good for 4 inches per Hoosier....
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there is no such thing as a slam dunk winter storm. That said, you've got a lot of key players on the field as we enter a dramatic pattern change. Percentages are decent of a fairly widespread moderate to high end event impacting a good chunk of this forum.
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whaadya mean? Yesterday it was a sure thing...I had a repeat already pegged of that February 2nd storm from several years back...but with stronger winds. Now it's complicated?
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kiss of death....
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Agreed. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
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way too much talk...way too soon. heartbreak typically follows....you'll excuse me if i don't buy in as the cody parkey therapy tour is still too fresh. That said...winter is coming with a vengeance...me thinks.
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what a world....walk out your back door and stick a ruler in it. not complicated.
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huh? its been snowing since 7 am....got about 3" down here. Thinking another inch to come minimum...
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best rates of the event thus far. Perfect winter day.
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same out this way. sooner than expected. good trend, as I was worried about a shut out.
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