Baum

highest amounts in Mchenry easy toss. 4-8 envelope seems unchanged. And 00Z NAM less than 24 hrs from storm initiation is known for huge hiccups this is barely a breath.

see ILX posting warnings suspect in collaboration with LOT. Guessing a call for 4-8 across the board.

where's spartman when you need him?

I would not expect any changes.

mid morning LOT update: "NO CHANGES TO TOMORROW'S FORECAST AS WE AWAIT THE REST OF THE MODEL SUITE, BUT THE GOING MESSAGE OF AN IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM REMAINS ON TRACK. SEEING SOME SIGNS OF SOME EARLY LAKE-ENHANCEMENT THAT MAY EVEN START OF AS DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS PARTS OF NE ILLINOIS BEFORE THE DEEPER SATURATION AND ASCENT ARRIVES THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS"

I rode that trend to over 40" in a 6 week period last year. And multiple back to back 6" events as well.

^ wasn't the icon the first to sniff out the southeast weaker strung out POS trend?

Gino Izzi with a nice succinct on point AFD for this AM. Clearly hits on Alek's lakeshore call: " NEAR THE LAKE IN NORTHEAST IL, AS WARMING MARINE LAYER COULD CUT DOWN ON ACCUMS INITIALLY AND IF THE LAKE EFFECT DOESN'T RESULT IN MUCH ACCUMULATIONS, THEN THAT AREA COULD END UP WITH LIGHTER TOTALS. CONVERSELY, IF THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT REACHES ITS FULL POTENTIAL, THAT AREA COULD END UP WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS" time to make a call and will go middle of the 4"-8" envelope with 6". Shame this thing is sort of booking. That said, breaking ORD's New Years Day snow record the same winter season we set the late snowfall futility record and all within one week will be frosting on the trees so to speak. And as LOT points out:"WINTER IS OFFICIALLY HERE!"

when it disappears on tonight's NAM please don't panic. Of course, that's usually within 24 hours not this far out.

hmmm. He didn't it mention while trolling our snow thread.

looking good still. Seems were on track for a 4-8 or perhaps a 6-10 event. Hoping we don't land in the 3-5 advisory level category in the western burbs. Tonight's runs should really begin to tell the tale.

Thank you.

did I miss the GFS snow maps? Feel I didn't see either a 12Z or 18Z.

when i saw ICON scared me. Thought the virus thread reappeared.

sincerely, doesn't this belong in Buckeye's thread: "Pray for snow for Ohio" it's been an ongoing thread for years. It's where all the Ohioans congregate.

wrong thread.

is this where the 18Z NAM becomes my model of choice?

gonna bust high.

New Years 1985 Redux on the table

MLK Weekend outlook:

Don't disagree. Jerry Taft made a nice career in doing so. So did Roger Triemstra.

given the model trends this seems conservative even for you. If storm goes as currently progged even losing accumulation to intial warmth back end lake enhancement sure to counter that aspect by a good bit. Unless, your eyeing a shift in track from current model runs. Still a ways to go and plenty can and will change.

like a who's who of the pessimists in my neck of the woods

sh*t.