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Baum
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Everything posted by Baum
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encouraging write up with a reasonable perspective from LOT:"STILL TOO EARLY FOR A SNOWFALL AMOUNT OFFERING, BUT GIVEN THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WHAT APPEARS TO BE A DECENT REGION OF DEFORMATION SNOWFALL TOWARDS MONDAY EVENING, THE POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS (>6") IN THE FORECAST AREA, JUST STILL QUITE A FEW MOVING PARTS TO NAIL DOWN YET."
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Just catching up. Why so conservative on the intial WAA event Saturday Eve ? The main event still has a lit of ups and downs to ride but your call seems legit hopefully on the lower end of the spectrum.
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ban.
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negative vibes. It's the chase and the hope that's all part of it.
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a consensus on those two 4 days out is the kiss of death.
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was not specific to any particular region. More relating to a more standard winter event with Heavy Snow, Freezing Rain, and Rain depending on your proximity to the low pressure area.
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Read it. Weather porn to say the least. Don't think Mchenry will get through it.
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I actually did follow these guys for a bit. Problem is they don't really provide a uniform forecast rather a variety of forecasts and than hype themselves as correct if one of their six scenarios pan out. Worse, they inundate social media with these various mets who push these conflicting/contradicting scenarios. Most of it geared I suspect to give the impression of accuracy and lure unwitting energy traders/clients.
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obviously. Or a number of other scenarios. However, as previuosly stated virtually every model now shows a decent event within the forum.
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Agreed. Every model now depicts a sizebale accumulating event. Was not the case at 12Z yesterday.
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someone always gets screwed. That's the way this works.
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LOT has some early AM advice for you:"KEEP IN MIND IT'S NEVER A BAD TIME TO MAKE SURE YOUR WINTER KIT AT HOME OR IN YOUR CAR IS STOCKED AND READY TO GO."
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I thought you guys let Alek do a trial AFD for sh*ts and giggles. That said, path of least resistance given the prior runs before the 12Z Euro and Gem today isn't an unreasonable call.
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"QUICKLY BY A LOW COMING FROM TEXAS, BUT LATEST RUNS INDICATE THIS SECOND LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FURTHER SOUTH, BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS TRACK IS PRESENTLY NOT HIGH, AND THERE REMAINS A CHANCE THAT THIS LOW TRACKS A BIT FURTHER NORTH, THREATENING THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW THROUGHOUT MONDAY." looks like we have a GFS hugger in the LOT office.
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it was memorable. That's the goal.
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long long way to go. Just good to see a couple models latch on to the idea of a substantial event.
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Alek contrarian post incoming.
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bingo
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12Z GFS operational not what I wanted to see.
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^yep. board infamy. Hate to see Mchenry endure that collapse. Here's hoping for a reverse of this upcoming.
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not a true suicide run. That was last February when a surefire 12" er drifted off into oblivion over 2 runs 36 hours out.
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been the story for awhile. Cutter/Rain or a shredded POS shunted further south and east or into oblivion due to blocking. Something needs to break the several years trend.
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going to be a long slog until sunday.
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Go big or go home:"OTHERWISE, THE GOING FORECAST OF A GENERAL HALF TO ONE INCH OF SNOW LOOKS GOOD, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOCALIZED CORRIDOR OF 1-2 INCHES DEPENDING ON WHERE ANY ISOLATED BANDING SETS UP. SNOW RATIOS WILL BE HIGH WITH THIS EVENT, " a 20/21 winter first with regards to ratios.
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^I'll take the fact we didn't get the eurhtymics response as a positive sign.
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