Baum

Way too early in the season for a big event in our neck of the woods. But establish the pattern, and hope it sticks as we slide further into December

I was born in 1962. I can recall two Thanksgiving events. 1975 and that tree snapper about 10 years ago. Both were a sloppy mess with crap ratios. Both underperformed just based on early season climatology.

Hate to say it but an amped Madison special at the break of December ain’t necessarily a bad thing based on trends it seems for nearly a decade. We need to bury the south east suppressed program early this year.

It’s Tuesday. A lot of you aren’t going to make it.

The early ride up the roller coaster is my favorite part.

Cruel overnight runs sounds like.

Would be rare indeed to see that kind of snowfall this early. Though I guess we all know to slash ratios at this time of year. Positive would be this type of event falls into a number of winter projections this year. So perhaps it’s a tell.

“Potential”is the key word. Your maturing as a forecaster and have learned the 3 key letters of good forecasting CYA. It’s been a pleasure watching you grow through the years.

You must be new

I’m thinking not: Saturday A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 77.

Festive if anything, to open the holiday season. Maybe a whitening on the newly strung garland and lighting. Beats 62 and open golf courses in my world. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, A POTENTIALLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN PRECIPITATION PAIRED WITH SUFFICIENTLY COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE MAY SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT. WHILE THERE'S A LARGE SPECTRUM OF PLAUSIBLE OUTCOMES AMONGST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, THE MULTI-ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY FOR 1"+ (10:1) SNOWFALL IN 24 HOURS CENTERED ON SATURDAY-SATURDAY EVENING IS >=60% EVEN AT THIS EXTENDED LEAD TIME. THE ECMWF/EPS DEPICTION HAS BEEN GENERALLY MORE ROBUST THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE SUITES, BUT ULTIMATELY IT'S MUCH TOO FAR OUT FOR SPECIFICS, ASIDE FROM FEELING COMFORTABLE WITH ~60% POPS IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST. OUR MAIN MESSAGE IS TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES AS THIS TIMEFRAME DRAWS CLOSER FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS TO POST-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL. -LOT

Too soon. Let the hope and hype build for another 48-72 hours before you crush dreams.

LOT is certainly intrigued. FWIW. Probably should pick the snowblower from Ace Hardware. Dropped it off for pre season maintenance service in October 2019.

Easy toss.

Who’s going to start the thread: “Post Turkey Day Hooker” :BEYOND THANKSGIVING, SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TO A TURN TOWARDS A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS WEEKEND GOING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER. OVERALL, THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA CONTINUES TO FAVOR UPPER TROUGHING SETTING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE PRESENCE OF GREATLY ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN SUCH A PATTERN IS NOTORIOUS FOR STEERING NUMEROUS IMPULSES ACROSS OUR REGION. ACCORDINGLY, SOME PERIODS OF ACTIVE WEATHER, WITH RAIN AND/OR SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE, HOWEVER, THAT AS IS TYPICAL, WHILE THE PATTERN LOOKS INCREASINGLY ACTIVE, THE FINER SCALE DETAILS THIS FAR OUT REMAIN LARGELY UNCLEAR AND WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT IN THE COMING DAYS. NEVERTHELESS, THIS PERIOD WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL WEATHER SYSTEMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THAT COULD IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. STAY TUNED. - LOT

Rarely has anyone captured the pure excitement of our recent run of weather, so well and descript in written word.

He has spoken.

It’s November 18th. The only thing I’ll hang my hat on is we’re more than due for a decent December period. As are we due for a pattern of Oklahoma hookers and Saskatchewan screamers. Until than I’ll have to keep reading statistical posts from the Climate Changer on repeat.

“Delayed” is the polite way of denying “poof” in the weather world I’ve come to learn over the years. It’s like that saying, “how did you go bankrupt? Real slow at first, and than all at once.

Bad sign.

Not a thing this cold season. Build an arc.

Replaced by Bam Weather. Old habits die hard.

https://x.com/ryanhallyall/status/1988365006270771297?s=61 https://x.com/juliecar94/status/1988411163311534385?s=61

You did it to yourself.

Ouch.