cleetussnow

That last storm moved hundreds of miles in just a few model cycles before game time. Different set up, of course. Models were steadfast prior and a miller b cut instead. The coast should be interested in this one at least. Inland nasomuch.

I’m pretty sick of that song and dance but I keep coming back. Seriously the 18z eps just cooked up a miller b with inland runners in the mix. Might be a head fake but that’s the reason I come in here.

MWGA. MaWGA...

12z was meh. Tonight’s Oz may not be

Well I don’t know if sampling is what’s behind the big changes but many said now is about when to expect a big swing.

Maybe we can make lemonade with this lemon fresh storm - 50/50 block so we can lock in the next one.

It times well with the next system. Without a block the fast flow lends credence to a fish storm so that's what's in the offing this weekend. There isn't a whole ton of support for the snowy solution now save a couple runs here and there for this weekend. Let the fish have at it, and we can feast on the next one.

I was thinking 4 days is when models will home in on solutions, but they might already be homed in. Looks whiffy. However that last 2 events, which were never really interesting for these parts, moved in 100 mile increments right up until game time and outcomes were west and warmer. Different scenario, but point is don’t buy anything esp. in marginal conditions until game time. If I had to bet, this whiffs or rains. Too many variables have to align for the snowy solutions.

Confirm huge iguanas in Miami. scart me half to death when I reached for a drink in my beach chair at the pool at the fountainblue and a 5 footer was quietly eating lettuce next to my chair. I know they are vegan and everything but still....yichhh. This was right after the kill on sight order the state issued!

Weekend rule is in effect this winter. Uncanny.

The upstate NY forum is on that one. It’s probably going to be dismissed until it scores some coups.

Honestly this thing isn't moving around that much on the GFS for this time lead. 1 wild pitch in there yesterday up and in, but the rest grazing the plate. slight adjustments are all we need. Edit. 6z was well outside in the dirt too.

Ha I was just thinking about his old Weekend Rule. That has been in play this winter a bunch of times (outcomes notwithstanding).

I mentioned that earlier - it might have been a real bias in the old days, or it might have been voodoo. I'm sure there are a host of new issues with the Euro that are more "real." It is uncanny though that we are seeing that again.

not horrible, GFS looks like it fringes eastern areas. The trough is too positively tilted for a solid turn up the coast, and northern stream interaction is muted. At least its not a total whiff. just to add, i don't think it would take much to get more said interaction

I expect meaningful changes around Wednesday or Thursday

Lol yes Maine gets whacked. I would not celebrate yet if I were them. Dr no doesn’t even sniff them

Snowfall maps are not effective at this range. 7.5 days? 2 days maybe... its not not a world beater anyway with a 990 LP

Not a lot of wiggle room. 4 of the last 5 gfs runs have a similar track, so that’s a plus. But there is a lot of time and dr. No to contend with.

Gfs is a decent hit but...east of previous run.

IIRC the old euro had a bias of hanging the sw back too long, only to correct later? Seems like I remember that. this storm has that sort of back and forth modeling we saw many times in the snowy years. Probably won’t play out the same way: gfs picks up on something early, euro agrees, then they both waver with the euro out underneath due to slow eject. Then wham a nice euro run and everything else catches up. Would be fun to track like the old days. Edit just snow snow88 post. Yeah...but I think the model has a new set of issues nowadays...i.e. it’s generally more erratic

In the old days we liked whiffs right in this time range.

It seems trends are coastal or whiff, rather not a cut through Detroit this time. Suppose that’s a pattern change. We will see if it holds. I am actually thinking hugger when all is said and done.

Agree. It’s not going through Detroit there. That’s a good sign at this point. As long as we never see that between now and game time we have a shot.

Door number 3 sort of on the EPS. Ots. Kick a field goal?