I have to chuckle because a couple of weeks ago some folks were selling that the pattern change would happen around 1/20 and our winter would be from 1/20-2/20, well that went down faster than...oh never mind, probably too soon but I digress, the past two years have reinforced that the long range is a total crap shoot. That said, there will always be people who hang their hat on 10 day model runs.