stormy

I did not include the ICON in the blend.

Out here in Augusta County my 4 model blend has increased from .5" last night to 1.3" with the 12z runs. 1.7" Kuchera. A definite shift south on the GFS, ECM, GEM, NAM and ICON.

One piece of Trivia that some may be interested in. Knoxville, Tenn. received 9.5 inches of snow Tuesday. According to the NWS, their average annual snowfall is 4.6 inches. Doubled that in one storm!!

Historically, Nino winters are not wet, wall to wall. We have been wet for 60 days. This is likely a time-out. I predict a wild and woolly period from Feb 1 - March 25. This would mimic 1958 which psu refers to. Mid Feb. thru Mid March of 1958 was historically brutal, breaking many snowfall records across Virginia/Maryland. We may do it again....

What more could anyone say. My blend has dropped from 2.0 to .5 in 24 hrs.. Here comes the drought!

My 4 model blend for Augusta dropped from 2.0 to 1.4 overnight.

Overnight low of +3 at 12:30. 8 at 7:30 with an 11 mph wind.

My 4 model blend is up to 2.00" for late Thursday night/Friday for Augusta County.

Be careful

Total of 4.25". I'm happy because my prediction in my newsletter Monday morning was 3 - 6". The models did quite well 30 hrs. pre-event at 9 pm Sunday, ranging from 3.0" ECM, 4.0" GFS to 4.7 GEM The winner Monday 6 am was the GFS at 4.2 10:1.

As psu said yesterday, do you want the truth or do you want bs. It's outa here by 2 am.

2- 4 inches tapering off after midnight. The earlier guidance has been sustained by the 18z GFS.

GFS beefs up Thursday night/Friday threat. Also GEM, especially for psu

Saved by the GFS!! The best snow looks to be 6 - midnight. Bring it on!

To drop a .10 is only noise, but to drop .25"? Yea, I know its only the NAM but I certainly hope the GFS and GEM don't follow.

The 12z NAM drops qp from D.C. sw the Staunton. Snowfall also drops accordingly an inch or two. Hopefully the 12z GFS does not follow .

About a half inch and 24 degrees with flurries. Roads are white.

I missed the 18z GFS 6 inch line by about 5 miles. My GFS,ECM,GEM,NAM blend is 4.5 inches. I can handle that light fluffy amount with my blade without getting the blower out. Last winter I put the blade and chains on the tractor and took them off in early April without ever using.

I understand. I was looking at the 10:1 total for Augusta from 12z at only 1.8. This is well under the GFS at 3.1 and GEM at 4.7.

OK , I'll follow your advice and look forward to the 18z GFS for comparison The ECM is really conservative compared to the others. Are the better physics telling?

sure

Just smile and be happy, that's headed in the right direction. The NAM Nest has raised you from 3.5" to 6.3". Wow!!! If this keeps up You may need to get your blower out!!!

Nam raises my Kuchera to 4.7 from 4.0. Mt. psu gets 6.2. He said he needed at least 4 so this should make him happy.

I was debating sending a flash to my Newsletter subscribers but I'm holding off. Maybe the forecaster has had 3 or 4 Mimosa's.

Psu: I hear you, believe me. Most of those comments were provoked by a person directing a snarky post toward me. In the future if snarky comments come my way, I will do my best to simply ignore them. Sometimes I believe we all take this board too seriously. Many feel compelled to clash with others when everything is not going their way. Yesterday, you said that the D.C. mean from 17 - 24 has been 6 inches. My mean during this 7 year period has been 14". My mean for the previous 7 years was 31". During the past several years I have noticed an often repeating weakness in the Lakes region that systems turn into. Lake runners and Miller B's seem to dominate which we hardly ever do well with. Miller "A's" seem to be rare. Others have commented about this. Do you believe this is related to our snowdrought?