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PhiEaglesfan712

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Everything posted by PhiEaglesfan712

  1. PhiEaglesfan712
    Many of those months had widespread warmth. In fact, with the exception of February 2019, PHL had a +5 temperature departure (1981-2010 normals) Dec…2015….51.2….+13.8 JAN…2017….38.5…..+5.6 FEB….2017….44.2….+8.5 FEB…..2018…41.9….+6.2 JAN….2020…38.9….+6.0 DEC….2021….45.3….+7.9 JAN….2023….43.3….+10.4 FEB….2023…..42.7…..+7.0 DEC….2023….43.5…..+6.1 Feb 2019 was just barely above average for us, and was in fact the snowiest month of that winter. Come to think of it, 2018-19 was probably the most consistent winter post-2015 here at PHL. 2017-18 and 2020-21 may have had more snow, but 18-19 didn't have the prolonged warmth that Feb 2018 had or the snow shut-off that mid-Dec to Jan 2020-21 had. Plus, Nov 18 and Mar 19 were well below average temperaturewise, making 18-19 the coldest Nov-Mar post-2015.
  2. PhiEaglesfan712
    I think 2001-02 is the best measuring stick. That was the mother of all droughts. It went on for months on end until Q4 2002.
  3. PhiEaglesfan712
    Dare I say, could 1978-79 be a good analog? Like this year, that was a failed la nina near a solar max and a dry fall for most of the Eastern Time Zone. Even the PDO (though not perfect) isn't the worst match, with it being a slight -PDO.
  4. PhiEaglesfan712
    I don't know, this feels like the period after the 2010-12 la nina was declared over, and people were in a rush to print out their "2012-13 super el nino" headlines. Because that will grab a reader's eyeballs more than "2012-13 ENSO neutral". I am skeptical of there being any type of el nino in 2025-26. For one, we are in a deeper -PDO than we were in 2012. (It's very rare to have 2 el ninos in 3 years, let alone in this deep of a -PDO.) What I think is more likely is that the PDO retreats towards neutral in 2025, like it did in 2013. It will happen in this order (1) we stay ENSO neutral for an extended period, (2) the PDO turns positive in 2026 or 2027, and (3) we have the el nino. The "2025-26 el nino" headlines will be printed, but I won't be fooled by them like I was in 2012-13. Yes, the el nino will happen before the decade is over, but like in 2012, the ingredients aren't there just yet.
  5. PhiEaglesfan712
    This drought is going to give 2001-02 a run for its money. I'm not sure if this drought will match that one in terms of longevity, but barring a major rainstorm (and none is in the forseeable future), a drought emergency has to be declared at some point.
  6. PhiEaglesfan712
    Also, the MEI (if it ever updates) is almost certainly sub -1, and possibly even sub -1.5 This year is going to be the toughest one to classify.
  7. PhiEaglesfan712
    It's looking like 2025-26 is going to have a 2013-14 setup. Should I start getting my hopes up or is it too early?
  8. PhiEaglesfan712
    It looks to me like it will be one month shifted this year, though. I get the feel that DJF 2024-25 is going to resemble NDJ 2021-22, and we're going to get the MJO 8/1 mismatch in February, rather than January.
  9. PhiEaglesfan712
    I see the dry pattern continuing in December and January, with the first third of December being colder than average, the second third of December being warmer than average, and the final third of December being cool. December is going to be like November 2021. January will be a torch, like December 2021. The best hope for this winter is for February to end up being an MJO 8/1 mismatch to the -PDO la nina, like January 2022.
  10. PhiEaglesfan712
    Yeah, I'm liking my prediction of a cold first third of December, warm middle third, and cool final third of December (in the mid-Atlantic). November 2021 looks like a very good analog month for December. January is going to torch (like December 2021), though.
  11. PhiEaglesfan712
    Are we getting AS and SO numbers for the MEI today or tomorrow, or has this been discontinued again?
  12. PhiEaglesfan712
    I raise you this: https://weather.com/en-IN/india/news/news/2024-11-08-saudi-arabias-al-jawf-desert-region-sees-historic-snowfall-and-hailstorm
  13. PhiEaglesfan712
    Almost looks like late 2012. I expect the PDO to move towards neutral in 2025, like it did in 2013. +PDO el nino in 2026-27 or 2027-28?
  14. PhiEaglesfan712
    Since the start of the 2010s, 2014 and 2023 are the only summers with below average temperature departures (using 1981-2010 normals) at PHL. Though if you use JAS (which was warmer than JJA), 2023 turns positive. 2010-11, 2013-14, and 2014-15 are the only winters with below average temperature departures, with JFM 2014 and 2015 being the coldest since 1978.
  15. PhiEaglesfan712
    I see December being up and down, kind of like November 2021. The first third of the month will be colder than average, the second third warmer than average, and the final third a bit cool. December is going to be mostly dry, so not much snow. I see January being the torch month, like December 2021. If there is going to be the classic la nina, -PDO, MJO 8/1 mismatch month this winter, it's going to be February.
  16. PhiEaglesfan712
    Last drought emergency in Philly/South Jersey was 2001-02.
  17. PhiEaglesfan712
    February is no, but I think March is possible if we can get a heatwave very close to the end of the month. We got close, and locations actually reached 90, on 3/30 and/or 3/31/1998.
  18. PhiEaglesfan712
    There was a snowstorm here in the East on April 19-20, 1983. Some places as far south as North Carolina got multiple inches of snow. For PHL, which got 2 inches of snow, this is the latest snow event on record. I can't imagine snow sticking with that high of a sun angle here near PHL, let alone in North Carolina. The sun angle is equivalent to August 20 or 21.
  19. PhiEaglesfan712
    Yeah, I totally whiffed all winter on this prediction. I thought we'd get a 2009-10 type winter to start with, but when December was warm, I changed my tune to a 2006-07 type winter (one that started warm, but the bottom dropped out in February). It looked good for a while in January, but the cold never materialized in February.
  20. PhiEaglesfan712
    November 2020 and October 2021 were uber warm. The following month in each case (December 2020 and November 2021) were much close to normal temperaturewise. Three months later (February 2021 and January 2022), we got the -PDO la nina mismatch month. I've already accepted that the die is cast for a slow start to winter this December and January. If 2020-21 and 2021-22 are an indicator, I still think we could milk out a close to average or even below average December. However, I'm keeping hope alive that February 2025 will be another mismatch month like February 2021 and January 2022.
  21. PhiEaglesfan712
    Which is why I think a near to slightly below average temperature December is possible. However, I think it will be a dry cold like November 2021. Though with it being December instead of November, I think we can get a 1"-3" snow event somewhere. January is going to be a torch month like December 2021. The best hope for this winter is for some sort of MJO 8/1 mismatch in February to save the winter.
  22. PhiEaglesfan712
    2015 I had the A/C on in the car on December 12 and Christmas Eve.
  23. PhiEaglesfan712
    October 2021 -> November 2024 (uber warm month) November 2021 -> December 2024 (cool, but mostly dry month) December 2021 -> January 2025 (uber warm month) January 2022 -> February 2025 (mismatch month, cold and snowy) Overall, the winter will be warmer than average, but it won't be warm throughout. I see a 1"-3" early December snowstorm in the mid-Atlantic, with Arctic air coming immediately thereafter. January is going to be warm. The winter will hinge on whether we get a January 2022/February 2021 type mismatch in February 2025. If we don't, then this winter will be a huge bust and FMA will be 3-5 degrees above average.
  24. PhiEaglesfan712
    Possibly both. I know there are wildfires going on around here, but I watched the Chiefs game last night, and there was fog in KC (and that may have possibly moved east overnight). It looks like a fast moving storm, and the fog is gone.
  25. PhiEaglesfan712
    FTFY. The pattern we are in isn't going to give us much rain, much less a snowstorm, in November. We're staying torch and mostly dry for the rest of the month. I do agree on a pattern in change in early December. I think the snow event happens around December 4-5, and arctic air invades after that.
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