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Brian5671

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Everything posted by Brian5671

  1. Brian5671
    SST temps are way above normal. That will keep us warm through December most likely. Then we'll have to see what the AO, NAO MJO etc want to do.
  2. Brian5671
    yeah it must have built back in-we ended with about 1.20
  3. Brian5671
    back half of the system is weaker than modeled....steady rain ended here a few hours ago
  4. Brian5671
    It seems more often than not there's something to track the last week of October. Some certainly delivered, 2011 Snow bomb, 2012 Sandy, Halloween storm of 1991 etc
  5. Brian5671
    Yep the 2 events this week will have delivered a much needed 2-4 inches of rain to most areas
  6. Brian5671
    rain has commenced here...temps down from 65 to 57
  7. Brian5671
    11-12 featured a big PV like last year but was bone dry. Also had some big solar storms that fall that I wonder if they had an influence? Doubt we see anything that dry this year. Last year had the big PV but it was wetter, just zero cold air with the PV locked away.
  8. Brian5671
    Outlier. Most models are around .5 to .75
  9. Brian5671
    The old adage will apply-earlier to start earlier to finish. Happens alot with these fast moving storms-this one is more like a frontal wave vs the storm some models had earlier in the week.
  10. Brian5671
    less marine influence there. Close to 80 degree water for a time this summer which has only slowly cooled off
  11. Brian5671
    Not to mention SST's being 60 degrees...LOL
  12. Brian5671
    Climo
  13. Brian5671
    quick mover-6-9 hrs of rain and that's it.
  14. Brian5671
    Models starting to shift east with the Friday night event. NAM has shifted the heaviest precip western edge from about Scranton to Newark and the GFS appears to be following suit.
  15. Brian5671
    Even past Day 5 is a crapshoot for OP models
  16. Brian5671
    .77 here total for the 2 day event. About 65% of that fell today
  17. Brian5671
    weenie band of rain here all day....still going....
  18. Brian5671
    that dumped about a half inch here earlier
  19. Brian5671
    heavy shower coming through here now....
  20. Brian5671
    from a pandemic perspective an 01-02 style winter would work. From a weenie perspective we want 95-96
  21. Brian5671
    About the same here. Another round coming Friday night-starting to get into stratiform rain/storm season now
  22. Brian5671
    only thing worse than last year is the twin duds of 01-02 and 11-12. The Bar is set pretty low for this coming winter.
  23. Brian5671
    winds picking up here out of the east-gusting to 25 maybe 30 at times....
  24. Brian5671
    Not much here about .15 Hopefully the 2nd round tonight delivers....
  25. Brian5671
    That will likely be a problem into early winter at least-the warm SST tends to make it hard for cold to hit and hold in the east
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