Krs4Lfe

Ideally, you would want the ridge closer towards Idaho and Utah, which would force deeper anomalies closer to the east coast as opposed to a deeper trough in the Great Lakes, which can usually signal more clippers and a fast northern stream. Either way it’s a lot better than what will be in place next week and it doesn’t seem to be being pushed back at all.

I’ll probably blow torch for a week, especially here closer to the mid Atlantic. The models are generally honing in on a pattern change around the 11th or the 12th but obviously we should not expect any immediate chances for snow because the pattern change will have to set in first before the chances actually come. Hopefully that pattern changes here to stay because with a properly timed SW during cold anomalies in January, which is already peak Climo, we could do very well.

Dry begets dry, wet begets wet. And snow begets snow. While in theory it’s improbable, we could nearly have a shut out for most of rest of winter because we clearly lack a coastal track. Hard to nickel and dime our way to seasonal average in these parts. Absent a KU and it’s almost impossible to get to seasonal average

This will only be exacerbated by climate change. The warmth and mild weather for Central, south, and west US this season is incredible. Almost all snow outside of highest elevation has been east of the Dakotas and confined to Midwest and northeast. Very impressive warmth and mild weather. Pattern change isn’t until mid January so this will persist for some time

I admit I was very wrong with my call for December. I hope I am wrong with my call for January as well. In fact; I’m usually more wrong than right when it comes to this stuff.

Most of our thaws put us in the 50s. The January thaws in 2020 and 2023 were insane. 65-70 for most of us. Was a telltale sign that winter was finished. 2024 was a bit more muted, and January 2021 and January 2022 were low 50s for the thaw, nothing too crazy, and we went back to wintry conditions after that. I'm certain we'll crack 50 next week, but anything above mid to upper 50s and that's usually a bad sign.

And if the gradient sets up north of you, then it's certainly far north of SNE and NYC area. All the weather stories are talking about the record warmth across CONUS next week. Warmest anomalies will be to our west of course, and Central US has barely seen a flake all season. That's a bit telling imo

Couldn't have said it any better myself. Gradient patterns rarely work out well for NYC, aside from 2013/2014, 1993/1994, and even 2014/2015 to some extent. We always see some sort of snow in those events but usually, nothing to ever push us towards our seasonal average. The only thing going for us is that we had an above average snowfall for Dec, and well below normal temperatures. This thaw will be big and real, from the 7th until the 12th or so. Hopefully, since we're still in peak climo, we can get some storms after that point. It's not necessarily the cold that's the issue (or lack thereof). I think more of the issue is a very fast northern stream and a tampered southern jet. That won't allow for any big storms to traverse CONUS, leading to persistent mild and dry conditions for Central, South, and West US. Naturally, that reduces our chances for snowfall. Even in seasons where the northeast doesn't do well in the snow department: 2023, 2024, 2020, there's still plenty of activity to our west. This year, there's been almost none. Make what you will of it, but I think we'd be a lot better off with more stormy activity to our west. Without that... meh at most

BAM weather is shutting the door on a potential flip to colder weather starting the 12th. They’re not ruling it out completely but they’re saying the polar vortex might not drop through North America, cutting off the cold air source. Remember, it’s been quite cold across northeast and Midwest, but rest of CONUS has been quite warm. Doesn’t look to have any end in sight. Winter never arrived for many places and without some cold air over there, there won’t be snow. It’s always good to see ample cold air and snow to our west. Instead; it’s only been directed towards our region since early December. Would be better for our storm chances if this changes up

It was a nice dusting of snow here in North Queens last night right around .2 of an inch at most

We have warmth from April to September and sometimes even earlier or later. No need to thaw during winter.

The latest temperature anomaly map from the CPC is not looking good. Has us at above average temperatures up until January 14 or so. And it doesn’t look like there will be much precipitation either. Seems like warmer and dry, but if we can get some storms reversing across the US then maybe we can sneak something our way despite the overall above average temperatures. It’s usually somewhat workable when you have an active southern jet and some storms even when the temperatures are a bit above average, especially in January when we are in Peak Climo. But it looks like most of the US will be shut out of any winter weather and cold through the mid month aside from some parts of the Rockies.

Most of the US has been seriously lacking in the snow department outside of Northeast and Upper Midwest this winter. Just warm and mild for most of December and no end in sight for forseeable future in January for the west, Central US, and the south. Snow begets snow and dry begets dry. I think you get the picture, I think the end result of this season is baked in for most of central, west, and south US: warm, dry, mild

Good thing I didn’t uncancel my winter cancel. Pattern coming up looks like warm garbage

And the can gets kicked once more. One more pattern delay after that and we’ll be looking at end of January

Yeah it’s extraordinary how wrong it’ll be. Shut the blinds until mid month. The pattern regression now is quite impressive. Looks like a big warm up around 1/9-1/10 with a trough in the west. Never want to punt peak climo but it is what it is

That’s an epic snow squall marching across from east Ohio throuhh central NY. Wish that would make it over here but they usually die out by the time they reach here. However, it’s a beefy squall. Would be great to see

That was the running theme during Jan-Feb 2023. Let’s hope this is real transient. Deep western troughs are nightmares for snow and cold over here

If I had a dollar for everytime I heard the “better pattern just weeks away”

Unfortunately we have lost the cold in the 2nd week of January. That timing is very poor for the next system which moves through around the start of that week. It’s telling that the models have not hinted at any resurgence of the storm that was depicted a few days ago. The cold has been lost and the NS is too fast and can’t phase with SS so all we get is a weak NS storm at a time when we have warm anomalies. A big let down

The only times I can think of when can kicking actually worked was the big pattern change in late January 2015 and the big pattern change in late January 2021 after a mild month. Aside from that, can kicking has almost never worked. That being said, a cold and snowy December in NYC usually correlates to this entire forum doing well later on in the season. If we don't, then this will indeed be very rare territory. History is almost always on our side after having a cold, snowy december. Hopefully that pans out for us this time as well

As long as we have record warm northwest pacific SSTs for a majority of the year, that helps supercharge the pacific jet, which leads to fast flow. Until the fast flow subsides, we will lack those bowling-ball type amplified systems that were prevalent in the 2000s and 2010s. It's the new normal

Agreed. Right now the south East Ridge has been pushed back quite a bit so any storm that comes towards our area would likely not be interfered by that ridge and we would not run the risk of the storm being amplified too much and cutting to our west. Instead, our current problem is that we don’t have enough amplification because the northern stream is just flowing too fast and cannot phase with the southern stream in time to lead to a large coastal storm. However, it looks to be towards mid month that there is a shake up in the Pacific, which will push the mild air in the west and central US over the east US briefly. Then afterwards we will appear to be in a more of a colder regime similar to what we are in now but this time the cold will be more widespread across the US. While that will likely increase the chances for snow because our snow storms will have already been formed to our west and traverse across the US, we do run the risk of a larger southeast Ridge, which would lead to potential over amplification and temperature issues during those storms. So for now, we have the cold, but we don’t have the snow, and in a few weeks it’s looking like we might have the cold, but we have issues with the southeast Ridge, which will of course affect our chances for snow as well. Either way, we need a big shake up in the Pacific because most of the US is snapping back to warm and dry for the foreseeable future, which doesn’t go well for our chances either.

On this Day in 2013, models started honing in on a winter storm across Midwest that would make Its way to northeast and amplify off the coast. New Year’s Day NHL classic was in Michigan and it was snowing heavily. I remember thinking wow that’s coming to us. By January 2nd we were under winter storm warning for 6-10+” of snow, near blizzard conditions. All out blizzard for eastern New England and Long Island though. Was great tracking that one. A kickstart to an amazing winter in 2014, the best I’ve ever seen second to 2011 (which I wasn’t into weather back then but it was still cool to see all that snow too).

It’s true that it will be cold here. Rest of country will return to warmth which decreases chance for snow across the US and decreases our snow chances as well. We’ll be the only part of the US until mid January with colder weather. Not ideal for the type of amplified bowling ball type systems we’ll need in order to get our snowfall up to average. January 2022 had a big chance across US after a warm December 2021 which provided ample chances for snow across US. Same with January 2024. Even January 2025 after a rather dry and mild December. But still no signs of a wholescale pattern change through mid January imo