Krs4Lfe

If I am not mistaken, I believe MJO phase 5 is the worst for cold and wintry weather

Hopefully New York City can sneak in 4 inches of snow by the end of the month although that is looking increasingly unlikely especially with the big warm-up coming after the 20th. Statistics don’t lie and Decembers that usually feature at least 4 inches of snow in New York City have a high chance of producing average or above average snowfall for the rest of the season. Central Parks measuring has been consistently terrible over the past few years even more so then it had been in the past so I wouldn’t be surprised if they barely record an inch from the snow that is coming on Sunday.

Midwest is getting more heavy snow through this weekend. Clipper moving in tonight, and then another snowstorm that's in Montana/the Northwest tonight moving in through this weekend. It's good to see snow to our north, west, and south. Winter definitely off to a good start for much of the northern tier. Hopefully we get ours this weekend and then we can reset later this month and start off January strong. I'm just concerned about torching late month and then that lasting through January like December 2022. Lots of similarities that month.

When do you think this fast Pacific flow pattern will ease up a bit? Back in the 2010s, there used to be bowling balls traversing the US when there was this much cold air. Now; we’re stuck with clippers. Only have had to shovel snow a handful of times since 2020.

So basically the models that actually matter are light snow at best

Verbatim based on those temperature anomaly maps New York City is pretty much right around average on December 26, while the rest of the country is torching. The craziest statistic is what you just mentioned above is where places down south that are running up to 8° below normal this month could finish close to average because much of the country will be in spring like warmth during Christmas week. Reminds me a lot of December 2022 colder than normal month overall a big-time arctic freeze a few big storms across the north US and then after Christmas, we torched right through right through New Year’s and through the rest of January.

The models are really not backing down with the warmth after the 20th. Not enough to offset the cold we’ve had so far but yikes that’s a pretty warm Christmas week

Sometimes it seems hard to envision a sharp weather pattern change when you’re in a totally opposite pattern at the moment. I remember how cold December 2022 was, especially during Christmastime but then we had straight 50s and 60 degrees right through new year. Patterns can flip on a dime, for better or for worse. The cold has been quite enjoyable but we all know it can’t last forever. It would be a bit unreasonable to believe January won’t at least start out warm. Maybe it doesn’t end up that way in the end, but very likely it ends up warm just by the sheer nature of this cold pattern can’t stick around forever

Looking less and less likely that this will be a “plowable” snowfall. Looks like a minor event at best. Maybe when the cold air relaxes we can get something larger. But then again it’ll probably be too warm to snow

And pursuant to the name of your account, central park under measures everything so I doubt this would get anywhere near 4”

The only question remains: can we get 4” of snow at NYC before then? If we see a shutout for this month given how cold this month has been, that’s a big yikes

I think it would be a lot better if we saw *something* here this month. Ideally, if NYC saw 4”+ we would Be in ok shape because 4” is the magic number. That being said, lots of signs for a warm up after rhe 20th

Unfortunately, in this fast flow pattern that has been dominant since 2019, I doubt storms will pop up out of nowhere. I think if there’s enough storminess around, one will come our way.

Yeah once we ended up getting 0” that month after a great pattern, and January was warm and a shutout; I knew we were in for one of the least snow winters ever.

Things are looking rather ugly later in the month. Looks like we lose the cold real quickly around the 20th or so. If we’re going to see snow for rest of month it should be in that period. La Ninas are notorious for torches in January and February. Not seeing any signs of anything different this time around. I could even seen a December 2022 repeat. Great pattern but 0 snow. The worst of the worst

Yeah at some point this cold air will have to ease up. Very few winters have almost wall to wall cold. And in this climate, it’s nearly impossible. All the more reason to capitalize on the cold now and get some snow

They can, and when they do pop up, I think we know what areas will receive snow, and it likely won't be here. Winter has shown its cards, a continuation of a suppressed, hugger, or cutter pattern that has existed for the past 7 years (exception being 2021 and 2022). It's unfortunate, and at some point I'm sure we'll see some snow. But this is eerily similar to December 2022. Colder than normal, great looking pattern, and snow everywhere except for our region. And in a La Nina, if we have below average snow in December, it likely extends to rest of winter as well.

The worst part is that in our ever warming climate it is increasingly difficult to have a colder than an average month, especially during the winter. However, over the past few years every time we have a colder than average month it is mainly cold and dry, and we barely have any snow in this region. Our bad luck just won’t run out.

Just in time for a mid month warmup, as was a bit expected, but hopefully it doesn’t become like the infamous December 2023 jet extension where we roasted for the rest of the month

Yes, this is very reminiscent of the winter weather pattern we had last January and last February, which mainly has suppressed storms that targeted the southern US and areas of the lower Midwest, while most of the rest of the country was cold and dry. With this next push of arctic air there simply isn’t enough of a southern stream to coincide with the arctic air and produce much meaningful snow. Instead, we are stuck with the winter pattern from last year, which is dry, cold, and any snow is usually suppressed.

Well we received a Dusting here in Queens. Don’t think it would be enough to count as 0.1 at Central park but maybe counts as an our first snow of the season ?

Unfortunately, it looks like we might have to shut the blinds for a bit over here. Both of the next clippers will likely head to our north, with maybe some light rain for our area. On the backside, cold and dry once more. Colder than normal weather seems to be nearly guaranteed for the foreseeable future. But no snow in sight.

Correct. As long as the Northern stream continues to zip across CONUS, it doesn’t have the chance to connect with southern stream and phase. Until this changes, we will undoubtedly have cold air but almost nothing to show for it

Well I guess the present thinking is that we’re due for snow here in the NYC metro. We’ve had snow just to our north, just to our west (today and a few days ago) and now to our south for DC and people further south. At some point I’m assuming we’ll get on board just to fill in the map lol. Hopefully soon. It’s truly looking like this is the coldest December since 2013. In terms of the snow department; who knows? But we will have enough cold. Let’s hope we have enough snow as well

One of the reasons why it's so easy to be pessimistic is because of Jan-Feb 2025 and Dec 2022. Those patterns, observed from a far, would have been a gangbusters wintry weather period in the 2010s. But it just didn't materialize. In fact in December 2022, hardly any of us saw even 1 flake of snow. We've seen numerous good patterns (not just out in model fantasy land, but actually experiencing the good patterns) since winter 2019 that just failed to materialize winter weather events. Sure, those patterns produced cold, and sometimes, serious cold. But almost nothing came of those time periods. If that didn't happen, I think we would all feel more comfortable about this month.