From Jan. 27th 2020. Most of the long range showed warm weather last winter.
It's been a combination of not just the +NAO but the -PNA and +EPO/+WPO. All the indices have been going the wrong way. It takes a lot to go wrong to get nearly +10 temps in January. If we get one indice to go the right way, the rest don't. Right now we have a PNA ridge but the EPO is really positive.