BuffaloWeather

Yeah its getting bad and quick. We made the NY Times https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/26/nyregion/buffalo-covid-rates.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20201127&instance_id=24517&nl=the-morning&regi_id=137071596&segment_id=45535&te=1&user_id=5f09e984e56b8b65a7cb5168a5eece04 And the Covid-19 hotline for Erie County, where Buffalo is situated, is getting “annihilated,” the health commissioner said, with 1,500 calls in one 24-hour period this week.

Uh oh

Yesterday BUF was +14 on the day. Even when you think we're around normal were blowing past climo lol

The track is fine, just a warm airmass. No source of cold air at this moment. That changes mid month. Starting to like the look the 2nd half of December.

Agreed 1-3" max for anyone lower than 1k feet.

First time I've seen some true arctic air in the long range. - EPO mid month?

Yeah a lot of the mandatory testing will go away with schools and colleges going full remote. I still think community spread is rampant and based on what I saw yesterday we will see a big uptick in 2 weeks.

Hospitalizations are way up. We blew past the first wave already.

Positivity rate back up today. Our county led all of NYS in confirmed cases. Worldometers said 933 cases yesterday in Erie county. 2nd place was Suffolk with 651

Yeah I would hate that. Really cold in the winter, cool summers, and very little snow (outside mountain regions). I'd rather be on the beaches in Florida.

GEM took a step towards the Euro. Miss the storm and the lake effect. Not looking good.

Looks like GFS is hitting right where the consensus GEFS were near Erie/Cleveland

NAM looks like its going to be more progressive at hour 84 Icon is similar to rest of model guidance and a nice SW flow LES event.

Indexes. We can work with this in December. We will be lacking a -EPO which IMO is the most important index for our area.

New thread!

Upstate NY has had a far above average November so far and will likely finish in the top 5 of warmest Novembers on record. Buffalo is at +5.2 on the month with a mean temp of 46.9 1 47.9 2 47.8 3 47.1 4 46.9 5 46.9 6 46.5 7 46.2 8 45.1 9 45.1 10 44.8 For temps next 2 weeks, should average around normal for this time of here. Highs around 40 and lows in the upper 20s. The next few days look to be slightly above average. Our next system comes in on Monday with lots of possible scenarios EPS mean track GEFS NWS discussion The entire system will become vertically stacked as it slowly weakens while rotating about somewhere from the eastern Great Lakes to southern Quebec Tuesday into Wednesday. This will place our region in a much more showery type regime, with likely periods of dry time built in, especially away from any lake influences. That said, this will allow cooler air to filter in across the area from the west, with the air off the deck cold enough to produce a lake response downwind of the lakes. Precipitation will possibly mix with rain over the lower terrain during the daytime, with p-type remaining all snow across the higher terrain. There will likely be some accumulating snowfall, especially in lake prone areas across the higher terrain. To speculate on anything in the way of any snow amounts is not possible at this point. There are some hints that the main closed upper low will pull away to the northeast by Thursday, however upper trough looks to remain intact over the Northeast. Cyclonic flow and a general west to northwest flow will keep at least the chance for some precipitation in the forecast. Temperatures will slowly fall through the period. Daytime highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s on Monday, will fall into the 30s for the mid-week timeframe. Next week should feature a lot of rain, a lot of wind and possibly some snow? Any snow will likely be from wrap around, but still too early to pinpoint where the low pressure tracks. The EPS is more progressive with less lake effect, the rest of model guidance features it stalling northwest of lake ontario. Either way should be a fun week to track.

Yeah, but cold air is defintely lacking. If there is a lake snow event, if may be elevation driven.

Members are still all over the place, concentrating on track near Cleveland.

GFS GEM

Same post, same time wolfie. Great snow minds think alike.

UKIE

Marginal conditions, but that's a 24 hour decent WSW/SW flow on Euro. Would easily be double digits somewhere.

That's a nice SW flow though

200" or bust. Also has to include 1 3 footer minimum.

I'll see you guys later next month when we get some cold air around here.