BuffaloWeather

I mean Australia had next to no flu cases this year, the masks, social distancing, and washing hands work. Scientists might be smarter then us.

This is also the reason there are a lot of false positives with covid tests. Many people have tested positive/negative in the same day. This is because the viral load might not be sufficient enough to qualify for a positive covid test so in the same day you can test positive/negative depending on viral load and how much gets on the swab.

https://www.wgrz.com/article/news/local/new-storm-more-damage-hamburg-hoover-beach-hit-hard-by-storm/71-1f4b2973-c5a2-419f-9185-2502ef8553a7

UK

We need some cold air behind these clippers to really get it going but yes our entire forum does well in Clipper patterns.

Yeah, not really feeling it. Thermal issues, track issues, warm lake issues, shear issues, airmass issues. Too many issues. Final call Dusting-2" lower elevations. 3-7" Chautauqua ridge.

GFS has a nice little clipper pattern developing. It's been far too long since we've had one of those. It's by far my favorite pattern. They are more common in Ninas with an active northern jet.

Any snow in Buffalo will be Tuesday night into Weds afternoon.

EPS

Yeah its getting bad and quick. We made the NY Times https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/26/nyregion/buffalo-covid-rates.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20201127&instance_id=24517&nl=the-morning&regi_id=137071596&segment_id=45535&te=1&user_id=5f09e984e56b8b65a7cb5168a5eece04 And the Covid-19 hotline for Erie County, where Buffalo is situated, is getting “annihilated,” the health commissioner said, with 1,500 calls in one 24-hour period this week.

Uh oh

Yesterday BUF was +14 on the day. Even when you think we're around normal were blowing past climo lol

The track is fine, just a warm airmass. No source of cold air at this moment. That changes mid month. Starting to like the look the 2nd half of December.

Agreed 1-3" max for anyone lower than 1k feet.

First time I've seen some true arctic air in the long range. - EPO mid month?

Yeah a lot of the mandatory testing will go away with schools and colleges going full remote. I still think community spread is rampant and based on what I saw yesterday we will see a big uptick in 2 weeks.

Hospitalizations are way up. We blew past the first wave already.

Positivity rate back up today. Our county led all of NYS in confirmed cases. Worldometers said 933 cases yesterday in Erie county. 2nd place was Suffolk with 651

Yeah I would hate that. Really cold in the winter, cool summers, and very little snow (outside mountain regions). I'd rather be on the beaches in Florida.

GEM took a step towards the Euro. Miss the storm and the lake effect. Not looking good.

Looks like GFS is hitting right where the consensus GEFS were near Erie/Cleveland

NAM looks like its going to be more progressive at hour 84 Icon is similar to rest of model guidance and a nice SW flow LES event.

Indexes. We can work with this in December. We will be lacking a -EPO which IMO is the most important index for our area.

New thread!

Upstate NY has had a far above average November so far and will likely finish in the top 5 of warmest Novembers on record. Buffalo is at +5.2 on the month with a mean temp of 46.9 1 47.9 2 47.8 3 47.1 4 46.9 5 46.9 6 46.5 7 46.2 8 45.1 9 45.1 10 44.8 For temps next 2 weeks, should average around normal for this time of here. Highs around 40 and lows in the upper 20s. The next few days look to be slightly above average. Our next system comes in on Monday with lots of possible scenarios EPS mean track GEFS NWS discussion The entire system will become vertically stacked as it slowly weakens while rotating about somewhere from the eastern Great Lakes to southern Quebec Tuesday into Wednesday. This will place our region in a much more showery type regime, with likely periods of dry time built in, especially away from any lake influences. That said, this will allow cooler air to filter in across the area from the west, with the air off the deck cold enough to produce a lake response downwind of the lakes. Precipitation will possibly mix with rain over the lower terrain during the daytime, with p-type remaining all snow across the higher terrain. There will likely be some accumulating snowfall, especially in lake prone areas across the higher terrain. To speculate on anything in the way of any snow amounts is not possible at this point. There are some hints that the main closed upper low will pull away to the northeast by Thursday, however upper trough looks to remain intact over the Northeast. Cyclonic flow and a general west to northwest flow will keep at least the chance for some precipitation in the forecast. Temperatures will slowly fall through the period. Daytime highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s on Monday, will fall into the 30s for the mid-week timeframe. Next week should feature a lot of rain, a lot of wind and possibly some snow? Any snow will likely be from wrap around, but still too early to pinpoint where the low pressure tracks. The EPS is more progressive with less lake effect, the rest of model guidance features it stalling northwest of lake ontario. Either way should be a fun week to track.