BuffaloWeather

Upstate NY has had a far above average November so far and will likely finish in the top 5 of warmest Novembers on record. Buffalo is at +5.2 on the month with a mean temp of 46.9 1 47.9 2 47.8 3 47.1 4 46.9 5 46.9 6 46.5 7 46.2 8 45.1 9 45.1 10 44.8 For temps next 2 weeks, should average around normal for this time of here. Highs around 40 and lows in the upper 20s. The next few days look to be slightly above average. Our next system comes in on Monday with lots of possible scenarios EPS mean track GEFS NWS discussion The entire system will become vertically stacked as it slowly weakens while rotating about somewhere from the eastern Great Lakes to southern Quebec Tuesday into Wednesday. This will place our region in a much more showery type regime, with likely periods of dry time built in, especially away from any lake influences. That said, this will allow cooler air to filter in across the area from the west, with the air off the deck cold enough to produce a lake response downwind of the lakes. Precipitation will possibly mix with rain over the lower terrain during the daytime, with p-type remaining all snow across the higher terrain. There will likely be some accumulating snowfall, especially in lake prone areas across the higher terrain. To speculate on anything in the way of any snow amounts is not possible at this point. There are some hints that the main closed upper low will pull away to the northeast by Thursday, however upper trough looks to remain intact over the Northeast. Cyclonic flow and a general west to northwest flow will keep at least the chance for some precipitation in the forecast. Temperatures will slowly fall through the period. Daytime highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s on Monday, will fall into the 30s for the mid-week timeframe. Next week should feature a lot of rain, a lot of wind and possibly some snow? Any snow will likely be from wrap around, but still too early to pinpoint where the low pressure tracks. The EPS is more progressive with less lake effect, the rest of model guidance features it stalling northwest of lake ontario. Either way should be a fun week to track.

Yeah, but cold air is defintely lacking. If there is a lake snow event, if may be elevation driven.

Members are still all over the place, concentrating on track near Cleveland.

GFS GEM

Same post, same time wolfie. Great snow minds think alike.

UKIE

Marginal conditions, but that's a 24 hour decent WSW/SW flow on Euro. Would easily be double digits somewhere.

That's a nice SW flow though

200" or bust. Also has to include 1 3 footer minimum.

I'll see you guys later next month when we get some cold air around here.

This is pretty cool data

Positivity rate going down!

Yeah, that was a weird evolution. GEFS is a little different. But unless we see the low pressure strengthening quite rapidly we likely see a rain storm as the only "cool" air is self generated from the low pressure system. A 996 MB low isn't going to cut it. Lots of spread on the ENS

Such as Feb 2015, by far the coldest month in Buffalos history. These types of months are the rare exceptions to the rule. As long as we get snow I'm fine. We've been right around average for snowfall last 30 years, even a small increase actually. https://www.weather.gov/buf/BUF_top10

I'm looking to plan a Post Covid beach party on July 4th. What are we looking at? @Brian D

Lots of good hits in there

You can lock above normal temps for nearly every winter going forward. I mean how many negative winters have we had in the last 20 years 2-3? It's just the new norm with global warming.

We should be using the GEFS and EPS for next few days. OP should only be used in days 1-3 before the storm IMO.

EPS is farther east. Similar to GFS.

Sitting and spinning in Ohio for 3 days is also pretty odd. Never seen that lol

There were very few if any contact traced cases to gyms in Western New York. That's the facts.

It just sits and spins in Ohio for days. Tossed.