BuffaloWeather

I do like that Canada is finally getting some cold. Maybe a reload for late Dec/into January?

Just a horrible EPS run last night. Pacific completely takes over with zonal flow. Definitely an above average month incoming.

If you want to be selective yesterday through Tuesday is below normal with temps, just no moisture source. We're getting boughts of below normal temps but timing is off for storms and LES.

It gets colder then normal for 2-3 days following the cutter, then a full out torch on the GEFS.

GEFS. Not a bad look. The transition is sometime late next week with 1-2 cutters. I think we hit on one of them.

Ontario peeps have a better shot then Erie. We're below normal next few days and lake is quickly cooling. Just takes 1 LES for you guys, IE 2006-2007.

Here is the full breakdown, sorry was 53 million by end of Sep, not 58. https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1780/6000389 Results We estimated that through the end of September, 1 of every 2.5 (95% Uncertainty Interval (UI): 2.0–3.1) hospitalized infections and 1 of every 7.1 (95% UI: 5.8–9.0) non-hospitalized illnesses may have been nationally reported. Applying these multipliers to reported SARS-CoV-2 cases along with data on the prevalence of asymptomatic infection from published systematic reviews, we estimate that 2.4 million hospitalizations, 44.8 million symptomatic illnesses, and 52.9 million total infections may have occurred in the U.S. population from February 27–September 30, 2020. That was based on 6,891,764 confirmed infections by Sep 30th. We've more than doubled that already and rising quickly.

58 million through Sep 30th. It didn't include Oct-December cases. If you extrapolate, we're near 120 million based on how many cases we've had the last 2 months.

History repeats itself. I think we can learn from the 1918-1919 pandemic. There were 3 discreet waves. They had no vaccines during that time. We are currently in the middle of wave 3. The only part here is that wave 3 is going to hit the hardest, whereas in 1918-1919 wave 2 hit the hardest. That most likely has to do with timeframe. Wave 2 back then hit where wave 3 is hitting today. (October-December) Based on the CDCS data of 1 in 8 confirmed infections being undetected. 15 million*8= 120 million people have had Covid 19 already. Herd immunity is closer than we think.

History repeats itself. I think we can learn from the 1918-1919 pandemic. There were 3 discreet waves. They had no vaccines during that time. We are currently in the middle of wave 3. The only part here is that wave 3 is going to hit the hardest, whereas in 1918-1919 wave 2 hit the hardest. That most likely has to do with timeframe. Wave 2 back then hit where wave 3 is hitting today. (October-December) Based on the CDCS data of 1 in 8 confirmed infections being undetected. 15 million*8= 120 million people have had Covid 19 already. Herd immunity is closer than we think.

The big hike is next year. 8 days on Mt. Kilimanjaro. If they open up international travel. Nov. 2021 is the target.

Mt Hood was insane, we hiked it in the dark for sunrise. We were able to see Mt St Helens, Jefferson, Adams, Hood, Rainer from this peak.

Here is me at the top in October.

South sister was a dormant volcano we climbed to the top. 10,400 feet. Was a blizzard at the top 5 degrees and 50 degrees and sunny at base.

Nothing beats the PNW, aside from Alaska in the USA. Mt. Rainier and Baker. Just awe inspiring mountains.

Pure slop though. They likely keep that base all year now. 2" of QPF.

Yeah the dynamics are insane for this storm. I can see 3-4" per hour at times this afternoon. If this was hitting overnight as the airmass isn't that great I could see 2' somewhere, but during daytime I think maxes around 1' of slop.

Well to be fair almost every long range winter outlook had us 10-20% below normal climo snowfall. So this should be expected.

Anyone know where in Erie County you can get rapid test for free?

Anyone want to run a trendline for this data? It's definitely going down. https://www.weather.gov/buf/BUFsnowdepth

Went to mount rainier in October. One of the most beautiful places in the USA.

A friend at my wifes church had cancer and a severe case of covid. They pulled the plug on the ventilator today. He was in his 50s. Starting to hit home.

Just the LES events that December. What a great month!

Looks like it was a different one. The Bills game one was the week after, what a great few weeks there. That December I think I had over 60"

This just popped up in my Facebook memory. Was this the bills game event?