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JenkinsJinkies

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Everything posted by JenkinsJinkies

  1. JenkinsJinkies
    Thing is this is such a small area that a decent sized squall line would impact 90% of us.
  2. JenkinsJinkies
    There's talk of an potential upcoming pattern change in the Philadelphia forum, since we're adjacent to them it could bode well for us too.
  3. JenkinsJinkies
    It’s overcast now, overcast mornings are the kiss of death for severe threats.
  4. JenkinsJinkies
  5. JenkinsJinkies
    If this were winter Thursday would be getting a “time of death” post right about now.
  6. JenkinsJinkies
    That’s because NC has had even worse rain luck than us since August.
  7. JenkinsJinkies
    The severe forecasts north of Anne Arundel County have been more hit than miss this year.
  8. JenkinsJinkies
    Check if the thermohaline circulation has weakened recently. A similar occurrence in 2013 was caused by it.
  9. JenkinsJinkies
    There was a look on some of the reliable models of the storms ushering in a pattern change. It’s just that after the storm hit it got can kicked and then collapsed. I addressed that in a follow up thread.
  10. JenkinsJinkies
    I changed the tags the other day, maybe replace the first part of a variation of that. I would’ve done so if I had the ability to.
  11. JenkinsJinkies
    The thing is will that change stick or be yet another one off?
  12. JenkinsJinkies
    Therein lies the rub, there's been ample opportunities for that to break down these last 3 years but when that opportunity arises the nw flow abruptly injects steroids or if it is beaten back it's only fleeting and it comes roaring back in as little as a few days. A niño should be able to overcome that but like in 2023 we're instead dealing with winter style futility until we're well past the summer solstice.
  13. JenkinsJinkies
    Okay seriously, we got burned by another head fake. The forecast for the Memorial Day soaker didn’t disappoint for the first time in ages, and in the week leading up to it the models did show it ushering in a wet pattern. Yet when the system ran its course the follow up rain events were can kicked an additional week and are now in the process of collapsing. Since 2023 we’ve get these big rain events that happen roughly 6 months apart which mathematically should usher in a wet pattern but every time said pattern fails to materialize despite the storm verifying. Did something else break in the atmosphere to make things permanently drier? It’s not supposed to be this hard to get a wet pattern here.
  14. JenkinsJinkies
  15. JenkinsJinkies
  16. JenkinsJinkies
    https://x.com/scweather_wx/status/2061545870441824660?s=46
  17. JenkinsJinkies
    Cansips has it turning wet, though that's a seasonal forecast.
  18. JenkinsJinkies
    Cansips has it too
  19. JenkinsJinkies
  20. JenkinsJinkies
    There must be a localized force field for you. My first storm was in March.
  21. JenkinsJinkies
    Do you want Ellicott City to flood again? Because that how Ellicott City floods again.
  22. JenkinsJinkies
    It's looking like it's lasting a week max.
  23. JenkinsJinkies
    Watch the rain come back the week after that.
  24. JenkinsJinkies
    Why do I get the feeling that this was yet another one off that tricked us into thinking it’s the start of a sustained wet pattern… Then again those dry maps stop mid next week and it’s just a relax before a reload.
  25. JenkinsJinkies
    The last time we had a super niño it was over 70 degrees on Christmas Eve.
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