JenkinsJinkies

If the PDO is truly improving then we may be entering another heater. Imagine a Niño with this improved PDO.

I wonder how he’ll respond if the warm up getting walked back materializes?

PSU also has a rule of thumb type of thing where the odds of a certain type of snow season are based off of when his area records an inch of snow for the first time. It’s been a while since I saw the post but from what I remember it was something along the lines of if he gets his first inch around December 1st then there’s a good chance of a blockbuster winter, if it’s around this time of December then there’s good odds of reaching climo, but if it’s in the lead up to New Years and beyond then it’s going to be a dead ratter.

I mean based on the previous posts the pna may be improved by late January.

North of the city the lowlands got decent amounts for this time of year. Technically the solstice hasn’t happened yet.

Similar recent Decembers for DCA are 2013 and 2018. Last time they got at least 2 inches was 2010.

Even with the localized dud this is still the best December snow totals since 2018.

BWI is officially safe this year. DCA and IAD are still in play.

DCA: 0.3 BWI: 1.0 IAD: 0.5

Yeah this is going to be all rain for me isn't it?

Got your first inch before the 15th. What does that usually bode per your analogues?

Perry Hall

Still not sticking. Probably will later so I’m not sticking the fork in.

It’s snowing in parkville. Not sticking but it’s snowing.

It’s gotten rain right more often than not in recent years at the local level.

I’m confused, my Apple weather app shows it sleeting until the very last hour of the event, yet all the maps show my area getting 2-4”.

Subtract 15-20 degrees.

Plus it’ll be relatively short lived.

Prime climo for the region isn’t until mid/late Jan.

I asked some of the more knowledgeable people around here and this warmup does have legs. MJO moving to phase 5 being one piece of the puzzle. However it’ll be more like a week of 50s instead of a 70 degree torch.

About time too.

From what I saw on the enso thread the most extreme anomalies are supposed to be further south and west of the east coast. So I’d be more on board with 50s.

I mean highs in the 50s are still above average.

It’s weird, 70s in December is usually a blip but if it’s 70s in January then it’s a harbinger of a dead ratter.