JenkinsJinkies

With our luck we get a 97-98 sequel rather than a 15-16.

BWI: 3.5” DCA: 2.9” IAD: 5.0” RIC: 1.8” Tiebreaker (LYH): 1.0”

2016 sequel

In winter we have to get temps to cooperate, there’s more that can go wrong for us there.

It's a record for the calendar date.

When we score there's only a few pages, when we bust there's a double digit number of pages.

It’s normally quite easy to get decent rain around here. Now if this were happening in winter this wouldn’t be a slam dunk for a big snow because there’s more to go wrong when it comes to that.

I got 7 inches on the 2nd day of spring.

Here come the last minute walkbacks

There's still the "day of" fail though.

Weeniefest 202X

It won’t reach the bay because the mountains are going to be an anti rain force field.

DC hit 82 in February

If nobody beats me to it I’ll make it on December 1st.

I take it Sunday and Monday are nonevents now?

Because it could abruptly collapse tomorrow.

From the ENSO thread

A good chunk of the enso forum thinks 22-23 is on the table.

Never

Looks like we’ve seen our last 80 for the year too.

The big warmth waits for the 2nd week of January as of late.

We’re not going to have any more rain this month are we?

Weather app says rain next sun/mon. How long until that evaporates?

Throughout the preceding work week pretty much every model showed us getting a soaking from the coastal system. Some only showing a region wide inch while others were giving us 2-5 inches. The models held on to that until the 48-72 hour mark before they suddenly and epically collapsed. This has happened more often than not since spring 2023, and there hasn’t been a true wet pattern since 2022. Every big event since then was either a one off or the region gets hit but it underperforms in a way that gives winners and losers, often with a significant cut off gradient. This has been a resilient dry pattern. Usually Niña induced dry patterns end when the Niña dies but it survived the end of the 2023 Niña, stuck around during the transition to the 2024 Niño, precip underperformed during the Niño, when last year’s Niña ended it paradoxically intensified, and here we are now in the latest of a series of rain event busts. It seems as if we need the planets to align to get a decent system. There’s quite a few mechanisms that are required to give us big snows so I can understand why we can have problems in winter, but almost everything that we need for snow not the case for rain. It’s not supposed to be this hard to get rain here. Its like a switch flipped in 2023.