JenkinsJinkies

16-17 was a weak Niña. 19-20 was neutral but given the region temps it was a “weak weak Niña” of sorts

Helene made a hard left last year.

The thing is that it compounds over time. Yes growing season being over minimizes impact but if the pattern persistence follows the same trajectory it has since 2023 then we might still be in this mess come spring facing similar event failures. Doubly so if we get another underperforming winter or full blown nonwinter.

If this were winter there would’ve been 10 pages of weenie crashout preceding this.

Is that before or after the mid January heat wave?

The wrong part of the pacific is warm

You misunderstand, you mentioned that it could go dry for a time and I mentioned that models show nothing after today until around the 11th and given how far out that is it's fantasy range. Budding niña autumn plus a monster high pressure ridge means very little in the way of rain. Given our luck these past few years these ridges are self sustaining and can park themselves over us for weeks. Like October into November of last year, there was zero rain accumulation for exactly 5 weeks.

After this there's nothing until at least the 2nd weekend of October. How likely is it that we make a run at last year's rainless streak record?

Stick a fork in Imelda, it's over for us. It may even be over before it even begins.

What went wrong? We keep getting these "day of the event" fails...

This has transcended previous niñas though, there has not been a prolonged wet pattern since 2022. Every opportunity since then to end the overarching pattern has either resulted in it paradoxically intensifying (spring 2023 and last spring) or relatively short reprieves that end with it roaring back (this past June and July). Question is will the end of this niña finally open the floodgates or did the triple dip niña shift the atmosphere some more and now this is permanent for us?

Why is it that we need to have the planets align in order for that to happen? It is not supposed to be this hard to get decent rains around here.

If this busts it's really gonna hurt, and I'm guessing there's 0 chance for the models to do a 180 on the Imelda walk backs?

It's amazing how much Imelda's rain for the MA is following the same rug pull pattern as the Feb. 19-20 incident...

When are we going to get a wet pattern? Every time one gets advertised the rug gets pulled at the last minute...

>Looks at Vermont It begins.

It's supposed to really start late afternoon.

I’ve been looking at the main tropical thread and posts from the people behind CWG. It’s looking like it’s a pipe dream, screwed over again.

Lucy’d with rain… We better get a true prolonged wet pattern after the Niña breaks…

Meanwhile Euro pretty much undid yesterday’s walk backs.

So we fail upwards then.

Euro range to the start of October so it’s about Imelda mostly. If you look at the euro runs it’s been getting walked back further and further since yesterday morning. This is coupled with major forecasters and prominent users advertising a wet pattern for this upcoming week that, with these walk backs, is now in jeopardy. Normally I don’t harp on rain as hardly as snow but it’s fall in a budding Niña, there’s a real possibility that after this there’s nothing for quite some time. Given our luck we could make a run at last year’s rainless record again this year since September seems to be a repeat of last year.

We’ll be lucky if we get half an inch and even that is starting to look overly optimistic. Walk backs beget further walk backs.

I’ve seen this song and dance too just this past winter. It ticks slightly back in our direction to give false hope only to go even further south than before in the subsequent run.

I’ve seen this song and dance before. Once a ridge shows up to spoil our precip it’s here to stay. It goes hand in hand with walkbacks begetting further walkbacks.