We’re going to pay for it in October. Be it a 90+ in the first week, a week of mid/upper 80s highs mid month, an 80+ day around Halloween, or a combination of these. We always pay for early met fall cool spells.
On top of this could this mean we get a better chance of tropical remnants this fall? Last year all the ones that were heading our way or had the possibility to in September and October missed us.
Some models are looking like our luck will change in September. How much do you want to bet this is like the late 2010s and there's an odd month where there's next to nothing for some reason? In 2017 it was December, in 2018 it was January, and in 2019 it was September.
I think they’re talking about snow storms specifically. The winter base state has gotten warmer meaning that we really need to thread the needle or else it’ll be too warm. psuhoffman can show you that overall snow in the region is trending downward.
Imagine how insufferable the weenies would be here if one year the metros get a half inch of snow in late October, leading them to believe we’re in for an epic winter, only for it to turn out to be a 19-20 22-23 01-02 97-98 style non winter because of the reason you just mentioned. The salt would be legendary.
September 2017 had an early cold shot, only to have the equinox have a high in the 90s. That following winter had an 80 degree day in February. At the time it was the earliest 80 on record.
I'm also thinking of making a "When is it going to be our turn?" thread to serve as a spiritual successor to the "Is it ever going to snow again" thread, probably in December.
With us heading into another Niña I wonder if we’re in this dryness for the long haul? Usually things turn dry between August and October in Niña years and the pattern doesn’t usually break until the Niña does in February/March. Though this past year it actually strengthened and lasted an extra 2 months.