JenkinsJinkies

Yes but it’s mid March. It’ll be too warm.

Lake effect stuff dies in the mountains. Most we get is flurries.

I think it’s safe to say the clippers that gave us a couple inches 20 years ago are gone now. Alongside storms that gave us 6 inches back then give us 3 inches now. The big question is if we’ve permanently lost the 1996/2003/2010/2016 types of storms that give us 12+”. If the pattern didn’t collapse on long range a week ago we’d probably be gearing up for one. Like you said earlier this season busting gets rid of the “it’s just a Nina being a Nina” excuse. Now the only debatable point is if the pdo flipping can get us big snows again or if warming has already ruined those mechanisms.

Have you seen the long ranges?

I remember around that time articles were saying how the "too cold to snow" days were disappearing and that's why all those big snows could be attributed to cc.

I don't know if that would be enough for snow if we're straddling March and April.

DCA is at 8" for the season. Seasonal climo is 13.8".

I haven't seen the Bay frozen to any extent since that arctic blast in early 2018.

The 1960s might be out of reach but there was still a good amount of snows between 2013 and 2016.

Next year is a Nina, and those usually last 2 years.

Yeah I’m calling it for the metros, DC busted hard. Above climo is not happening.

Yes but it’s unrelated

I mean it’s not panic if it’s rooted in science. The cards are stacked against us in Ninas and Ninas more often than not double dip.

I know but we’ll probably have to wait until 2026-2027 for another chance at an AN snow season.

This busting will hurt because a) This is probably it for the metros b) The metros will fail to go above climo and c) Next year being a Nina will probably make it a wall to wall torch for the eastern US and very well a repeat of last year.

And that’s probably all that DC is going to get…

Yeah DC isn’t going above clomp this year if NAM walked back…

In other news water makes stuff wet

Hopefully the mountains don’t cause a pseudo rain shadow for those of us to the east.

Let’s hope this continues on the other side of the mountains.

CWG is holding the line. Looking at their comment section I’m not seeing any cliff jumping.

Yeah but some of the trends show a significant reduction of what the NWS is predicting.

Looks like I was just reading posts from catastrophizing weenies. One of the posters here is in Alexandria and they’re already seeing flurries.

If this underperforms should there be a post mortem what went wrong write up?

Too little too late. If we’re banking on March to save us snow total wise we get burned.