I saw the future cast radar on WBAL, it reminds me of those troll systems from 2012-2013. They'd start out as snow, accumulate, look picturesque, warm air bleeds in, snow turns to rain, rain melts all the snow away.
The Jan 13 warmup got pulled back on GFS. Now it's in the upper 40s for us instead of yesterday's run showing us pushing 60.
This is why we can't go on thermals more than 10 days out, it can change this fast.
But still, look how far into Canada the freeze line is.
Perhaps it could still be the luck thing (solely for this year though, not the whole 7 year period). I mean there is a nonzero chance of all the good stuff missing by sheer happenstance.