JenkinsJinkies

So with the pattern change discussion, how likely is it that it gets can kicked? I know the pattern is different but I remember long range discussion in the CWG during 16-17 and the people there stressed that we shouldn’t discount February, as it was the snowiest month historically and President’s Day has been known for its large storms. That strung us along for the front half of February 2017 but then reality came barging in on the 14th: https://archive.ph/YJ37f Sure enough instead of a back loaded storm season President’s Day had highs around 70. How do we know this doesn’t happen again this year too?

Spring leaf hasn’t even made it out of Florida yet per the USAPN

What’s the title of the thread?

Over the last few years hoping for March snow to “save” us has always ended in disappointment.

Once this “Niña” ends the precip rubber band will snap back hard. I would not be surprised if this drought is firmly in the rear view mirror by May.

Technically it would be 2031-2060

You mentioned at the end of last year's season that it was the final kick in the nuts for most snow lovers and I think that's how it's manifesting.

So I guess reaching climo is officially off the table?

West and North I can actually understand due to latitude and elevation. Garret County will almost always get more snow than Baltimore County and New York will almost always get more snow than DC.

Oh I’m well aware of that, it’s just that when you see parts of Louisiana get more snow than you with an indefinite lull coming up one kind of has no choice but to take stock. It may not care about feelings but it does care about latitude. Probably the only good to come of this is that the “we crossed a snow climo tipping point in 2016” theory no longer holds. Arguably it still didn’t hold before this because North Carolina got a decent bit of snow in 2018. I have noticed a pattern though, starting with 16-17 every third winter is pretty much wall to wall mild and snowless. 16-17, 19-20, 22-23 if this pattern holds then today’s event will sting even more in retrospect. Hopefully the PDO change sticks and that breaks us out of that pattern.

With what happened in the South today and all the fringing that happened on the 6th I think it’s understandable to ask, when is it going to be our turn? Every time we’ve had a good pattern in the last few years that produces snow there’s always some small thing that pops up at the last second and causes it to underperform. Parts of Louisiana and Texas now have more snow than DC. If that remains the case for the rest of this season I am not looking forward to the inevitable hurricane of butthurt from the weenies.

Perfect track rainstorm on the long range

So I can take it snow is off the table for at least the next 2 weeks?

The Deep South is scoring, when is our next window of opportunity?

I wonder if we’re going to end up like 21-22 where the metros nickel and dime their way to within striking distance of climo but something causes the last event of the season to underperform and it ultimately stops short.

I guess the 30/31st event went poof?

And the first week of 2023

Post 2016 every time we get arctic shots like this we usually "pay for it" by temps shooting into the 60s-70s a couple weeks later.

It also means that there will be a lot more bellyaching if other storms this season fail like yesterday's.

The “warm up” this weekend is reaching temps 2-3 degrees below average instead of 20 degrees below average.

So if this PDO change sticks could we be in for one the next time we have a Niño?

DCA needs 5.4 inches to match climo, is that possible before the month is out?

If we fall short of climo while this happens the weenies are going to insufferable for years. Even more so if next year is a repeat of 22-23

A warmup looks likely next month. The scale has been getting walked back the past few days though.