JenkinsJinkies
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Everything posted by JenkinsJinkies
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GFS fell off a cliff after DOGE.
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Someone replied this to me the other day but the stuff that was supposed to happen next week kind of popped up out of nowhere as an "added bonus" while the flip was always supposed to be roughly mid month. Even BAM's latest post talking about a potential red flag isn't 100% on board with can kicking it. Neither is CWG: https://x.com/capitalweather/status/2007118457418957123
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No, it's like downvoting a reddit comment if there was no karma system. A lot of people here take it way more personally than they should.
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I mentioned that these models have been flip flopping all season for stuff that's more than a few days out. What's not helping with model accuracy is DOGE trickery messing up GFS and the integration of AI pretty much across the board. Also if this is going where I think this is going I have made numerous comments saying that I'm not expecting a big dog event this year.
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Ah yes, I should get bent out of shape over a rating sticker and lash out at the person who dealt it. That's a totally rational response.
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You're taking weenie ratings way too seriously...
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We’ve seen numerous times how temp forecasts 2 weeks out flip flop as they get closer. Reminder that mid December showed a Boxing Day torch until the models flipped less than a week out. Also if you’re taking weenie ratings this personally then that’s a you problem.
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They’ve been burned by the years where the warmups started and never ended.
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How long until the cliff jumpers lose their minds over a warmup that'll be over in less than a week?
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What if we went over a tipping point after March 2018 that makes snow that month next to unheard of? Similar XKCD: https://xkcd.com/1321/
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CWG January forecast: https://archive.is/ECHhk
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Around 60 can still work out later down the line, but if it’s within a degree or two of 70 then it’s pretty much the kiss of death for the remainder of the season. See also 2017, 2020, and 2023.
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There’s a fine line between mid 50s and low 70s this time of year.
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Looks like the trend now is 6 and 12z punt and happy hour lives up to its name.
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Once you hit NY you get influenced by stuff that doesn’t apply to us. The only time it’s crap for them too is in a 2023 scenario.
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Some runs had us touching 70.
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That’s more the case for Pittsburgh and the Alleghenies. Climo wise Philadelphia proper is practically an extension of ME MD.
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I mean if a pattern is going to be bad for us it’s almost always bad for them too.
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South East is still a funeral parlor TN Valley is sticking the course on mid month improvement for the eastern US Surprisingly no cliff jumping in Philadelphia
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Reminder that it was supposed to torch this week.
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Found this in the TN forum, looks like the SER is getting suppressed to the Deep South.
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I can’t wait until the inevitable 180 bringing us back to the goods. These last 2 gfs runs will age just as well as the runs that had us torching this week.
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The 9th is 10 days away, not too late for it to reverse. It’s only 2 bad runs too far enough out to still get reversed.
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Even weirder, there’s more optimism in the TN valley forum.
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Wasn’t the 6th a long shot anyway?
