Powerball
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Everything posted by Powerball
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It's crazy that the squall line is still going strong into PA and NY. Might even make it to Philly and NYC later today.
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Seems like 4-6" is the final range for most of Metro Detroit, which is on the lower half of the forecast range and less than what the models yesterday morning were predicting.
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A lot of the snowfall reports through 10pm did seem to be somewhat underwhelming. They confirmed your 3-4" measurement. That said, that was before the heavy band that's moving through now, which might dump another few inches. Should be good enough to meet the forecast range of 4-8", although maybe somewhat less than what the models had depicted this morning.
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Not a chance, lol. Last 6"+ snowstorm, maybe. But I'd bet money this won't be the last snow.
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The changeover is progressing SE pretty quickly from what I can tell. Per the SPC mesoanalysis, the snow/sleet line is over Detroit proper now.
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But the 06z NAM also noticably drier. The WSWs would be quite marginal, with just barely over 6" in the heaviest part of the band. 06z RGEM is wetter though, lol.
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And of course, the 00z RGEM is wetter and bumped NW.
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Heck, I think I've only seen Hail maybe 3 times with a thunderstorm. Two of those times it was stray stones mixed in with rain. And as far as thundersnow, I've only seen it 2 times (one of which was with a LES squall). I'm not exactly a spring chicken either.
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I'm just amazed at how these storms seemingly keep unraveling when we get so close to onset.
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In essence, the NAM suggests that the string of WSW and WWAs in Michigan have been extended 1 row of counties too far north. And that's not even considering it's been on the more amped/NW end of guidance the entire time
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Can't help but feel bad for the mets in Detroit if the bleeding doesn't stop, after what happened with GHD 3.
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HRW FV3 is also drier and it bumped south.
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00z HRRR is also notably drier.
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GHD 3?
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The GEM, which needs love too, has also been on the right track for this storm along with the EURO, especially with the drying trend.
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Severe Weather Outbreak 02/16-02/17
Powerball replied to Tallis Rockwell's topic in Central/Western States
Like most severe weather events as of late, this will definitely be a good setup for MS/AL. For TX and OK, it's looking like nothing special. -
18z RGEM came in even drier.
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Definitely a run for Detroit on the 18z NAM. I'd give it a 2% chance of verifying though.
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NW trends aren't really a thing any more. Now it's eveey storm trends SE or to a strung out POS the closer to onset.
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It is wetter and a hair further NW. EDIT: Wetter for the eastern areas, that is.
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Severe Weather Outbreak 02/16-02/17
Powerball replied to Tallis Rockwell's topic in Central/Western States
That title is a huge overreaction. BTW, I'm getting ****ing sick of these nighttime setups. That's all we've had in DFW since I've been here. -
'MURICA!!!
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The upper levels with this systems are definitely more supportive of a further NW/stronger storm than GHD III.
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As someone who has suffered through 10 houra of nonstop Sleet and got roughly that exact amount in accumulation, no you don't. I mean, it's better than freezing rain, but only by the slimmest margin.
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The NAM.
