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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    I know.. the sun has been really bright around late February/early March the last few years especially.. I feel like we are going against trends to get this cold Feb 15th+
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    This is actually a -AO https://ibb.co/XX6TJ6p
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    For the first 2 weeks of February, we are like +5. All you have to do is look at models to see that. that would mean it takes a <-5 anomaly the 2nd half of the month to not be above average.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Today I'm going to say that the Euro snow maps for Feb 18-20+ is wrong.. and that we'll do well. Wild card is -NAO not happening like the models show, but it seems to be a strong feature on the CMC ensembles
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    I really like how favorable the Pacific is. Usually in +PNA you get a trough over the Aleutian islands, but its placement a little east on the models is the perfect position for our historical strong snowstorms.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Big energy dropping into the SW on the 12z GEFS.. Almost perfect position of the N. Pacific low, strong snowstorm potential ~ Feb 19th, maybe all the way down to Atl/NC if this is to be believed https://ibb.co/gDMrtYM
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    DCA 0.0 NYC 0.0 BOS 0.0 ORD +3.0 ATL -2.3 IAH -1.8 DEN +2.0 PHX +1.0 SEA +2.5
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    The board used to be rich with people making their own forecasts. You don't really see that anymore, they just analyze the model, and it's nothing that really posts any advantage vs what the model says. I wish more people would make their own forecasts, but that kind of thing is not really respected, and it is LR model fantasy worshipping just based on just what everyone wants, well said. Sometimes I don't feel the extra effort worth it (especially when I'll get 6 weenies for saying "pattern bad") and do the same thing. brooklynwx is the closest one to posting their own stuff of value, but he falls into a lot of generalized/lazy terms and methods that don't test back if you do the research, or know what it actually is.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    Not really a La Nina signal yet.. or at least, based on 75 years of satellite data https://ibb.co/gPrZP2Y
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    I wonder if LR models have a relative potential energy weight.. like it seems like when we are warm on the initial day or days +0-5, the LR goes crazy with cold at days 17-24. Like, warm now, is cold later, like a see-saw. Maybe not? It just seems like we have to have this 5-7 day running +departure to clear for more realistic LR model estimates to verify. Maybe because super LR output is new? I wouldn't bet against cold after Feb 14/15, but maybe it won't be as crazy as these -430dm -NAO's.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    It looks like Baltimore is coming in +3.3 for January, DC +2.3 and Dullus +3. Seasonals had -1 to -3. Looks like right now the same kind of deal for the first 2 weeks of February.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    384hr has had a +PNA since 1/22. It's been slowly bleeding into the sooner frames, and we even have it at day-13 today, but it's been stuck in the LR. Today's 384hr has the best trough over the EC of the cycle, but we also had some pretty big changes in the Pacific toward more -PNA for the first 2 weeks of February now.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    I said in my post it's still in the 13-day
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Now it looks like target date for pattern change is 2/15. It was starting to move into the 12-13d yesterday, but today at 12z it's back to 13-15d, with 384hr being the best signal. Been like that for 8 days now.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    Got rid of that SW energy. Still, I'll be disappointed if we leave the period without 15-20". The biggest issue with +PNA's historically is that they are dry, but there is no dry tendency this year.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    Who wants to choose the weekend as their threat window?
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    As Joe Burrow says, let them taunt. Such a stupid broken energy when they make so many calls because the players care about what happens. They get paid 50mill/yr, they don't need to care so much about the outcome of the game.. the incentives for winning are very small. Just really dumb, and a staple mark especially in America to penalize everything that could be something.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    I would have been surprised if we went throughout a strong -QBO/strong El Nino with -10mb.
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    Because I think the NAO on LR models is responding to Stratosphere warming, here's research that I did on typical lagtime: Jan 13-24 10mb warming https://ibb.co/PhFsN3M Correlates at +25 days to 500mb -NAO... so that makes its window ~Feb 7-18. Obviously the 17-24 day CMC and EPS that brooklynwx posted goes beyond that window of time, so we'll see what happens. I would bet that the chance of a -NAO goes down toward the end of February.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    Even if it comes in pieces, we should do fine.. global precipitation is way above average, #2 was Jan 2016. Too early to start a storm thread for Feb 17-18?
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    Finally got the +PNA to move out of the 384hr panel at 12z, it now has the strongest N. Pacific Low 336-372hr. Look at what's on the STJ here at 384hr: https://ibb.co/31Z0Xqw
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    Strongest LR +PNA signal I have seen on a 384hr GFS ensemble mean.. it looks like the weeklies/seasonals will be hitting it. https://ibb.co/xDkm28h
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    I don't remember seeing -250dm on the 384hr GFS ensemble mean before.. 6z GEFS has it as a solid +PNA low. Again, here's the correlation to storm placement in the east: https://ibb.co/M6msjHq
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    Really nice +PNA getting going here
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    Good post raindance. I think a lot of the warmth in that position of the country has come from +nao/+epo, where the actual El Nino forces the North Pacific High to be weaker, and that's what a more direct point of effect is. This year we have not seen that weakening of the North Pacific High like Stronger El Nino years.. funny that the energy mets will probably get it right, but it's important to know that in the future something like this sequence is less likely to happen again. I have been leaning toward a warm March for the US, because I think that's a strong trend developing over the last few years, but you make a good case for it to be an interesting month temp and storm-wise.
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