Jump to content

Stormchaserchuck1

NO ACCESS TO PR/OT
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    3,298

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    The last 2 Winter's before this one were stormy in the SW, US. I think LA had their coldest January on record 2 years ago. The theory is that weather out there leads us by years.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    Same place as we were last year at this time. Summer has been ridgy on the Pacific side. SW, US drought correlates with -PDO rolled forward up to years. Not good that they had so much High pressure this Winter imo.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +4.7 +4.5 +4.6 +7.0 +4.5 +3.8 +3.2 +2.4 -2.7
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    no way. Index patterns are horrible. We did see somewhat of a La Nina STJ this Winter. This March warm up also fits the decadal RNA pattern that we have seen Feb-March 2018-2024.. it's still alive and going.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    Some light snow for northern MD on Tuesday on the GFS
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    6z GFS ensembles really look warm at the end, with +EPO for mid-March.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    We have only had ENSO Neutral 7 of the last 31 years, and that even counts last Winter as ENSO Neutral. We've only had 2-consecutive ENSO Neutral years 1 time since 1994 (12-13, 13-14).
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's not like a pattern that's going to bust colder, without much going on in the upper latitudes. Best we have going is that the NAO is no longer strong positive.. it goes to neutral. Maybe a better chance up your way..
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    February +PNA rolled forward 2-months is a nice severe wx signal for the Midwest
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    Enjoy 60s 3 of the next 4 days, with no major index pattern change after that.. NAO neutralizes and PNA starts turning negative..
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    +QBO/Nina has been one heck of a force to keep the 10mb layer really cold all Winter.. it's made it hard for -AO/NAO episodes to sustain. Imagine like a tornado vortex going from above to the ground.. although there can be wobbles from time to time, the strong vortex comes back to dominate..
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    96-97 was a pretty early one. I remember, as a kid, early buds on the trees. I was torn when Apr 1, 1997 was originally suppose to give us 12"+ in Baltimore. A lot of people don't know this, but it shifted 1 day before to go north. It was originally expected to be a big one - killing the Early Spring foliage. The early leaves survived.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    Does a February Nino 1+2 spike precede El Nino? A lot of people are claiming that an El Nino for 25-26 is underway because Nino 1+2 is near +1.0c right now on some readings. February '25 is the month where it went moderately positive. I don't see this correlation to later in the year on the roll forward, although that is a high correlation for +SSTAs near Asia and in the Atlantic. Nino 3/3.4 are 0.0 correlation.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    End of last nights 0z EPS
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    My last big storm was 5.5" on Nov 15, 2018.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    There is still a lot of cold water in the ENSO subsurface. Here is a time sensitive map: Last year at this time, strong cold anomalies had already taken over the subsurface at this time.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    Really running with the AO. Here's another one:
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    While I do expect it to get warm.. and this lingering cold layer is also fuel for thunderstorms, there is also a growing drought in the SW, US. In the Spring, you want to see troughs in the SW, US, that spurs on activity in the Midwest. That's a little different this year with a growing drought and kind of persistent ridging over the SW, US. It may be a more active season further east from the typical areas.. although a lot of N. America is dry right now, a pattern that started last year.
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    Good catch. +Mountain Torque over Asia correlated with +PNA earlier in the Winter
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    We still have a lot of negative water in the ENSO subsurface Last year at this time it was already moving full Nina in the subsurface
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    Natural Gas down almost 7% today. GEFS now has a strong Aleutian High Days 11+. +250dm reading on the mean for hr262-384.
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    Natural Gas opening -5.3%, definitely gives credence to the warm March idea. However, Natural Gas did rise +60% this Winter. When I released my Winter forecast, it was $2.60. Now it's $4.00. That's a +$1.40 increase on $2.60. So the Winter was colder than expectations, as energy prices reflect this.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    Good info, thanks for posting. I can tell how the ice looks different from now.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    Indexes really turn rough. There is some left over EC trough from the +PNA, then it just goes all-south Days 14+. It can change though.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    It was a west-based Nina though. 1=1. You can't throw it out unless something else that is happen doesn't match. In this case I'm using ENSO, because the La Nina has come relatively late, and the SOI is running positive, etc.. Winter trend though has been for +PNA, so we'll see how that goes.
×
×
  • Create New...