Interesting snippet from LWX's AFD:
Nothing has changed in terms of the pattern for a storm along
the Eastern Seaboard this wknd. A 50/50 low & -NAO, Idaho Ridge,
blocking over the Hudson Bay, and trough moving into the east
Pac. Couldn`t ask for a better synoptic setup, but the formation
of a storm remains in the details of this highly sensitive
pattern.
Latest guidance does reveal northern stream energy is a little
stronger and further west/slower. Therefore, eventual ULL is
slower to push eastward and slightly further west. This has
resulted in a slight shift west in recent storm tracks. Will
have to continue to monitor if this is a trend or noise.
While the ceiling is certainly high for this storm, there is
equally if not higher odds it just skirts out to sea. Future
runs will have to be seen if this is a trend or noise. How the
TPV evolves will be one of the biggest factors on if this storm
comes to fruition or not and impacts land. TPVs are notoriously
not modeled well given the source location with limited UA data.
Therefore, expect fluctuations over the next day or so until
the pattern is better sampled as associated energy is onshore
across the western US.