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Wow

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Everything posted by Wow

  1. Still have a hunch this will end up a SC hit. I think the N turn will be delayed.
  2. More likely than not but could be biased after watching Irma continue to defy model consensus and keep pushing west.
  3. This may have Hugo-like qualities as it may be pushing well inland with a more westerly than northerly path. This isn't like your usual storm hitting NC from a recurve path which keeps effects close to the coast. But unlike Hugo, this will be slowing down and could turn this into more of a flooding issue rather than the wind.
  4. 18z GFS farther SW compared to 12z at 54.. FWIW
  5. It would bring a lot of widespread flooding if it's going to stall out over the middle of the state.
  6. Wilmington to Winston-Salem...
  7. Irma pushed me to buy one last year so it definitely works.
  8. See ya in the banter thread. BTW an obs thread for this event has been created. We're that close.
  9. And that's true. The only trouble area with temps will be at the surface mainly. The LP is weak and little WAA to worry about. It's either rain or a heavy, wet snow.
  10. Well this is the GFS but it's feeling similar to last January's event where whoever is on the northern edge of the r/n is going to get a big wet snow storm.
  11. The 0.75" QPF line runs along I-85 this run. Quite a jump. Just how well the low level cold air works in will be the big question.
  12. I-85 corridor back on the r/s line. It's definitely wetter now.
  13. I think we're going to see a more consolidated LP with more moisture... it's slower due to this. Precip shield is farther north than any other run today so far.
  14. A lot less leading precip by 12.. it's consolidating the energy back in TX
  15. 21z SREF looks like the 9z from today, which is good since the 15z was a step back. Still not CMC/UKMET level to say the least.
  16. 18z GFS precip axis shifted NW over the gulf coast with the sharper trough. Still east of everyone else but giving it an A for effort.
  17. Definintely agreement on the leading wave for Friday to put down a light stripe from S MS thru CLT. Question is if the southern wave axis starts to turn more neutral and bring in a continuing slug of precip for most of Saturday like the NAM/CMC/UKMET/NAVGEM
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