Wow
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Need precip to really move in and crash the temps.. it's slower, thus the warmer temps
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850 temps are within a degree or 2 of 0... close
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Euro thru 60 hrs
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FV3 trend @41 hrs...
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NAM has caved to the FV3 and its allies. Flatter, weaker southern wave. Less WAA, less GOM convection moisture robbing thus no dry slot. Good stuff.
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The s/w is weaker and flatter... This will certainly keep the ice away and make this more rain vs. snow. Looks more like the GFS in that sense
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FWIW, 850 line near the NC/SC border
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The "finger" means more about trajectory then amounts IMO. I'd prefer to see it south and more west to east. That tells me more suppressed (not necessarily weaker!) and less worry about WAA.
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Despite the N trend from early yesterday, the GEFS popped back and is even further south prior to that trend
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18z vs 0z FV3
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A bit.. and colder, based on visual of the 850 line
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Stop yammering, people
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GFS definitely shifted south.. at 60 hrs.. r/s line down to state line
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Precip shield a bit further south thru 42
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NAM actually much closer to the FV3.. and colder than 12z. Actually has a stronger CAD signature
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I think it's just the precip shield. The low itself is now slightly south at 36
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I gave up on it after Feb '14.
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It really has been quite consistent. Here's a trend loop of the last TWENTY runs of the FV3 total snowfall...
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This is nearly all snow north of 85... transition zone south of there
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Yes.. reversed itself from the 12z output. Good to see.
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FV3 trended south and colder
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Total precip FV3... precip shifted south a bit.. barely making it into C VA
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It's all green because the sfc temps are just above freezing. The mid levels are all below. That's a good sign. In fact, 850 temps are colder at 54
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NAM looking much better.
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thru 90 hrs:
