Wow
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Everything posted by Wow
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It's actually very similar to the 12z GFS with the track close to the coast
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Interestingly enough, the setup has some similarities to the '04 storm... just a bit weaker and further north with the trough
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2/2004 as I recall it was modeled always as a good precip maker with temp issues but in the last 72 hrs it trended colder and colder with each run.
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It's flatter with the wave a little longer before it captures it off the coast... 12z was a bit faster wrapping it up and keeping it closer to the coast. Minor differences for this range as the overall setup is the same.
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over 30 hour event possibly.. lol
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Wow.. at 180.. nearly stalled off SC.. snowing over most of NC
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Cut off low... pulls it close to the SC coastline
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Flatter wave... more west to east r/s line... good for eastern areas of NC
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Overall similar setup just further N with the sfc low .. better precip shield extending from NC to KS
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Looks like the Wunderground forecast algorithms have ingested the latest models.. lol
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I agree with Mr. Widre Mann.
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12z GEFS trend. Much less spread with the sfc low placement. More agreement with a Miller A type of track.
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All I know at this point is a lot of something is going to fall from the sky. It has been wet. Wettest fall on record. It has been raining all weekend here. If the clipper delivers a stout HP overhead like the models are trending toward, we'll be good to go.
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Looks about right given the track as far as the r/s line is concerned.
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It's a coastal hugger on this run so it's a jackpot track for western areas
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Welcome to El Nino. Best chance for wintry wx for eastern areas will be at the beginning
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It's a winter storm. Classic southern storm for WNC with CAD high and a dying primary/inverted trough over the TN valley.
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Instead of 60s and 70s at the gulf coast, it's in the 50s.. the WAA from the southern s/w is more suppressed
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Big 1037 HP at 150hr sprawling over the low, centered over WI !. Yesterday's runs were over NE or just offshore Cold air is ready and waiting. HP isn't going to slide out on this run. Snow breaking out over NE GA and NW SC. Low over New Orleans.
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12z GFS so far more separation between the jets at 126. Don't want much interaction between the two while it works east. Also a good trend of slowing down the northern wave to keep our front-end HP in place
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I sent out a bulk email yesterday.. had server migration issues
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Either way, it's getting really wet. Duke has dropped the lake levels by several feet in anticipation of the storm.
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3k NAM looks like it actually increased over NW NC? vs.
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I've had a few quick sprinkles today.. But still 0.00 in the rain gauge.
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That was the last fishing pier in Atlantic Beach. Sportman's pier was closed back in '06
