Wow
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18z GEFS is the wettest mean yet. Here's a trend loop:
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At 120, the 0 line is running from CLT to Salisbury to RDU
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Then changes over S of I-85 at 120
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@114, snow over most of NC, even RDU
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The s/w is less amped at this stage (less phasing of energy) and the high is further east, indicative of increased confluence.
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GFS is slower with the southern s/w progression, closer to Euro
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18Z Nam identical to Euro at 84 hrs.. GFS & FV3 have been faster
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Pulled that one out by the skin of my teeth to stay all snow
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That's a lot of water
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The 6z FV3 run looks identical to yesterday's 0z run (12/3). Then it went back to a slider for a few runs. So model runs across the board are going back and forth with the idea of it pulling north. We'll see what happens today if we gain any confidence in that idea.
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Well, yeah ..
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I haven't seen a model show something like this since the 12z FV3!
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Congrats old GFS!
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Still looking good. GFS improved from prev run.
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Bump again!
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Ensemble means, people. Even then, you'll get hiccups.
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KSVH (Statesville) is at 12", previously 8"
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Here's the past 8 runs of the FV3 total QPF... definitely trending wetter regardless of the precip type
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Here are the last 8 runs of the FV3 snow totals. I will say it's been generally consistent with a NC winter storm in some form
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Looks like we traded fantasy snow totals vs 12z
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FV3 looks the same, though NW vs its 12z run, but the setup is no different. Good run overall at this range.
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Just think, if this storm were coming a month from now, the current FV3 model would be the operational GFS.
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Ensemble means, people
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CAD areas for the W piedmont & foothills are within a degree of 0 at most. It's minor details at this point. Overall setup is holding. CAD high in place.
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Euro not as robust with the s/w compared to the FV3 but the setup is nearly identical
