Wow
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Everything posted by Wow
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Still looking good. GFS improved from prev run.
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Bump again!
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Ensemble means, people. Even then, you'll get hiccups.
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KSVH (Statesville) is at 12", previously 8"
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Here's the past 8 runs of the FV3 total QPF... definitely trending wetter regardless of the precip type
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Here are the last 8 runs of the FV3 snow totals. I will say it's been generally consistent with a NC winter storm in some form
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Looks like we traded fantasy snow totals vs 12z
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FV3 looks the same, though NW vs its 12z run, but the setup is no different. Good run overall at this range.
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Just think, if this storm were coming a month from now, the current FV3 model would be the operational GFS.
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Ensemble means, people
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CAD areas for the W piedmont & foothills are within a degree of 0 at most. It's minor details at this point. Overall setup is holding. CAD high in place.
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Euro not as robust with the s/w compared to the FV3 but the setup is nearly identical
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Probably better to look at the QPF amounts to see how it's coming up with so much snowfall. Widespread 2+" of liquid.. that's definitely in the 18"+ range. And given how robust these STJ waves have been this past fall season I wouldn't doubt it. Just need the cold air to make it happen.
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Here's the 120 hr panel to get a good look at the healthy CAD high over the NE. Very good.
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I'm in the bullseye with 30-32" lol
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I know, right? I came oh so close in the Feb '14 storm with that def band but only measured 8".. too wet and too much compression!
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Snowing in W half of NC for nearly 48 hrs per the FV3.. from Sat afternoon to Monday afternoon
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Yes, but the precip shield is further north
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FV3 is a monster. Plenty of cold air. Looks like all snow on a line at and north from GSP to CLT to RDU
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No, you want to see a healthy HP over the NE to funnel in cold, dry air ahead of and during the storm.
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Overall setup still supported for a sig storm for the SE... Don't get hung up on the details yet. 12z GFS was weaker with the s/w... thus the more suppressed solution. Also was dragging its feet on building in the CAD high.
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12z GFS further south but also slower with the northern s/w to drag the HP east
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0z Euro total QPF. It's juiced up.
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winter cancel
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This is correct. Our CAD high is not in place.
