Wow
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That's a lot of water
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The 6z FV3 run looks identical to yesterday's 0z run (12/3). Then it went back to a slider for a few runs. So model runs across the board are going back and forth with the idea of it pulling north. We'll see what happens today if we gain any confidence in that idea.
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Well, yeah ..
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I haven't seen a model show something like this since the 12z FV3!
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Congrats old GFS!
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Still looking good. GFS improved from prev run.
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Bump again!
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Ensemble means, people. Even then, you'll get hiccups.
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KSVH (Statesville) is at 12", previously 8"
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Here's the past 8 runs of the FV3 total QPF... definitely trending wetter regardless of the precip type
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Here are the last 8 runs of the FV3 snow totals. I will say it's been generally consistent with a NC winter storm in some form
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Looks like we traded fantasy snow totals vs 12z
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FV3 looks the same, though NW vs its 12z run, but the setup is no different. Good run overall at this range.
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Just think, if this storm were coming a month from now, the current FV3 model would be the operational GFS.
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Ensemble means, people
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CAD areas for the W piedmont & foothills are within a degree of 0 at most. It's minor details at this point. Overall setup is holding. CAD high in place.
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Euro not as robust with the s/w compared to the FV3 but the setup is nearly identical
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Probably better to look at the QPF amounts to see how it's coming up with so much snowfall. Widespread 2+" of liquid.. that's definitely in the 18"+ range. And given how robust these STJ waves have been this past fall season I wouldn't doubt it. Just need the cold air to make it happen.
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Here's the 120 hr panel to get a good look at the healthy CAD high over the NE. Very good.
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I'm in the bullseye with 30-32" lol
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I know, right? I came oh so close in the Feb '14 storm with that def band but only measured 8".. too wet and too much compression!
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Snowing in W half of NC for nearly 48 hrs per the FV3.. from Sat afternoon to Monday afternoon
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Yes, but the precip shield is further north
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FV3 is a monster. Plenty of cold air. Looks like all snow on a line at and north from GSP to CLT to RDU
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No, you want to see a healthy HP over the NE to funnel in cold, dry air ahead of and during the storm.
