Wow
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Everything posted by Wow
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It's a winter storm. Classic southern storm for WNC with CAD high and a dying primary/inverted trough over the TN valley.
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Instead of 60s and 70s at the gulf coast, it's in the 50s.. the WAA from the southern s/w is more suppressed
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Big 1037 HP at 150hr sprawling over the low, centered over WI !. Yesterday's runs were over NE or just offshore Cold air is ready and waiting. HP isn't going to slide out on this run. Snow breaking out over NE GA and NW SC. Low over New Orleans.
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12z GFS so far more separation between the jets at 126. Don't want much interaction between the two while it works east. Also a good trend of slowing down the northern wave to keep our front-end HP in place
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I sent out a bulk email yesterday.. had server migration issues
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Either way, it's getting really wet. Duke has dropped the lake levels by several feet in anticipation of the storm.
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3k NAM looks like it actually increased over NW NC? vs.
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I've had a few quick sprinkles today.. But still 0.00 in the rain gauge.
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That was the last fishing pier in Atlantic Beach. Sportman's pier was closed back in '06
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Good news is the models seem to keep her moving west rather than a stall and turn SW.. good news at least for the coast. More headache for inland though.
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A foot+ of rain over most of NC per GFS
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Well that looks interesting
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FV3 GFS is Wilmington to Myrtle Beach to Greenville SC
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Good thing here is it'll be accelerating as it comes further inland since it stalled earlier.
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Florence decided really late to pull a Hugo track.
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Well this one is going to hard to pin down.
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The GFS gets a clue.. poor thing
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Don't fear the reaper
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Obviously it depends. This is a very difficult storm to model with it potentially stalling out. Depending where it drifts will determine a lot where the biggest rainfalls occur, obviously. Wind-wise, a northern SC hit would likely be the worst case.
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Indeed.. there is still a good bit of complexity here to easily shift things 100 or more miles in either direction. SC to VA are all equally in the crosshairs IMO
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Not being political here.. just a friendly mockery of his tweeting skills. Take care down there.
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Indeed. While seeing the 0z Euro precip totals for WNC was quite a breathtaking thing to see this morning, in reality I don't want to see that again on a model run. I'll gladly take a nice soaking rain with some gusty winds on the west side.
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After Irma, I'm still giving equal chances from CHS to the OBX
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I know we've heard the name Hugo a few times with this one, but if the Euro is anywhere near correct, this would be far, far worse than Hugo for WNC with the flooding.
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The Irma experience is on my mind with that call.
