RU848789

Yeah, the CMC output is still stuck at 24 hrs on Pivotal/TT, but I've seen people saying the CMC was "great." Can anyone share a CMC snowfall map? Thanks.

Been a mix of sleet and snow the last 45 minutes or so and we're up to a full 1/2" on the ground - we might need a SOE. We're in a lull right now - supposed to be a few more hours of precip, but it looks pretty dry to our SW. Down to 32F.

Snow intensity has increased to moderate with a whole 1/4" on the ground now. The snow rain line also moved SE by 10-20 miles and is now down close to 195. Maybe we can get 1" out of this after all. Temps have also dropped to 32-33F with evaporation cooling of the column so we're getting accumulations on all surfaces - snow is way better than freezing rain.

Snowing here in Metuchen at 34F with a whole dusting on the ground, lol. Reports of rain south of the Raritan and SW into Mercer and sleet/snow north of the Raritan and in places like New Hope.

Well, somebody had to do it. Nice eye candy 6-8 days out (although this includes what falls tomorrow, so there's not actually that much N of 84 for this; it's also a 36+ hr event as per the model, which sounds fishy). We can dream though. Nice to also see the GFS/CMC with significant storms, even if the evolution/placement of precip is different. And the UK is showing the start of the storm, too at 144. I sense a lack of sleep coming soon.

Essentially every global and the NAM/RGEM have CNJ/EPA getting 1" or so along 195/276 (with less to the south, except for a couple of models that have 1-2" from the initial SW flow) with amounts increasing to 2-3" up to about 78, with some divergence north of there: some of the models have 2-3" for points N of 78 also, while some have 3-4" N of 78. The exception to this is some of the models only have 1-2" for LI. Obviously, we're still ~60 hours away from the start of the event, so much can change, but I could live with a 1-3/2-4" event for most.

Euro sees it this way too, with the first system being a dry, sheared, suppressed miss for this forum, but the 2nd system providing at least a minor/moderate event with a long duration. Something is better than nothing and I can live with a day later, although I'd like to have my 4-8" storm from 2 days ago back, lol.

So the GFS finally caves to the Euro, UK, and CMC tonight and then the Euro fizzles for us...just not much precip...

I like having the UK and Euro on our side, even if the Euro isn't quite as robust as the UK - still 5 days out, so much can change...

Mark me down for this, lol...

not even close...

Every one of those on the PNS were from last night, which are incomplete - every report from this morning was 6-9.5" - my 8.25" report fits in there nicely (and I'm pretty sure I measure more diligently than the other Metuchen person - in a situation like last night, with some drifting, I was averaging about 25 different measurements). I find it annoying that the NWS publishes reports, after the storm is over, which are from well before the storm is over (I get having them there during the storm, of course). ...Middlesex County... Plainsboro Township 9.5 in 1044 AM 12/17 NWS Employee East Brunswick 8.5 in 1220 PM 12/17 Trained Spotter 1 WSW Iselin 8.0 in 1030 AM 12/17 Trained Spotter 1 W Carteret 8.0 in 1013 AM 12/17 Trained Spotter South Brunswick 7.5 in 0900 AM 12/17 Trained Spotter Carteret 7.5 in 1245 AM 12/17 Trained Spotter 1 WSW Rossmoor 7.0 in 1120 AM 12/17 Public Port Reading 7.0 in 0955 PM 12/16 Trained Spotter Old Bridge 6.5 in 1020 AM 12/17 Public Metuchen 6.5 in 0745 AM 12/17 Public 1 NNE Milltown 6.3 in 0700 AM 12/17 CO-OP Observer South Plainfield 6.0 in 1223 PM 12/17 Amateur Radio Woodbridge 6.0 in 0946 AM 12/17 Public Edison 6.0 in 0855 AM 12/17 Public 1 NNE Parlin 5.0 in 1015 PM 12/16 Trained Spotter North Brunswick 5.0 in 0830 PM 12/16 Trained Spotter South Brunswick 4.0 in 0720 PM 12/16 Trained Spotter Metuchen 3.9 in 0720 PM 12/16 Public Avenel 3.5 in 0920 PM 12/16 Amateur Radio Highland Park 2.8 in 0920 PM 12/16 Amateur Radio 1 NNE New Brunswick 1.6 in 0600 PM 12/16 Trained Spotter

That map is way off for northern Middlesex, where most reports were of 7-9", not 4-6". I always wondered how they constructed these, since so many "public" reports are crap (especially with the NWS publishing reports from before midnight, which is just dumb given the 2nd round most got).

FWIW, I thought the CMC, at least based on the 0Z run from Tuesday late night did the best with the storm, overall (and it was good before then too). It didn't have over 12" for Philly-NYC, like some did, and it captured the very heavy snows in central PA and NY state, as well as across parts of VT/NH better than the rest of the models.

Looks like I was premature with this post, lol, as plenty of folks, at least in NENJ/NYC/LI etc. picked up 2-4" more snow - nice! We got in on that action a bit with 1.25" more overnight to bring my total to 8.25", which is (barely) in line with my 8-12" prediction for the 95 corridor from Trenton to NYC. I had cleared the board and shoveled and there was 1.25" or so in both locations, plus I woke up a few times and it was still snowing, including a really nice surprise 20 minute heavy band about an hour ago that probably put down 1/2" of that. Locally, Perth Amboy reported 9" and many other locations in Middlesex County reporting 7-9". Have even seen reports of 6-8" in northern Monmouth, which really overperformed. As per posts on this board and elsewhere (not yet in the NWS PNS), Central Park up to 10", Newark Airport reporting 11", the Bronx with 12.6", Elizabeth with 9.1", LaGuardia with 9", JFK with 6.2" (close to the coast, so a lot more sleet) and Philly with a final tally of 6.6". I think we're going to see a lot more reports in the 8-12" range for Middlesex and NE NJ (Union/Hudson/Essex/Bergen/Passaic), given the snow that fell over night. So, when looking at the public reports from the NWS, they're likely incomplete if they were from before 1 am. Thought this was a cool graphic, below, showing the storm total precip - puts me in the 1.0-1.5" range, which makes sense, given the sleet for a few hours (lost 1-2" due to that - probably would've had 9-10" without the sleet). Look at the NJ coast - could've been a giant blizzard there with a track further offshore and a little more cold air.

We had 6.0" at 11 pm and then after finishing up poker around 1 am, I went out and shoveled while it was snowing mostly lightly (had sleet before then) and finished around 3 am. We got about another 1" from 11-3 for a probable final tally of 7.0", which matches up well with the 6.5-7.5" amounts I've seen in northern Middlesex County; we did get 12-16" drifts, lol. Not quite the 8-12" range I was thinking for the 95 corridor, but not that far off either. Was certainly a fun storm to track and enjoy. I had cleared the board at 11 pm and we got about 1/2" of sleet and a 1/2" of snow, which would've been about 2" if all snow (which would've been 8" total). Yeah a foot would've been nice, but I got almost as much as all last winter, so i'm pretty happy. Was interesting to see how many of the areas predicted to get maybe 1-3/2-4", like much of SNJ near Philly (which got 6.3") and northern Ocean and much of Monmouth County ended up getting 4-7", so those areas overperformed while the 95 corridor underperformed a fair amount vs. the NWS forecasts, but weren't too bad vs. the 6-12" forecasts many had. And the areas NW of 95 and well NW that were forecast to get 12-18" (and up to 20" in spots) busted pretty badly as I've only seen a few reports over 10" with only the Poconos getting over 12". The 8-14" for NYC/LI busted moderately, as they mostly got 4-8" with Central Park getting 6.5", more than last winter although maybe it's not quite done there yet. Turns out that it wasn't really the sleet that got us nearly as much as simply not getting the precip. The areas that got all the precip were huge swaths of central/northern PA and much of NY from Binghamton to Albany, where many locations got over 20" of snow (and some places got 30"). Some folks may still pick up another inch or so (we're getting some light snow still). And yes, my back is killng me, lol - this is why I usually shovel every 3-4" and not all at once...

So, same question I asked 3 hours ago...can this happen still?

As of 9 pm we have 5.75" OTG - slowed down a bit the last 30 min with the radar break; hoping it picks back up soon. Pretty happy so far. Would love to get to 10". 26F now.

is this possible that the HRRR has 5 or more inches left?

As of 8 pm, we have 5.0" OTG which is 1.5" the last hour - that's pretty heavy snow. Pounding here now. Still 25F. Very heavy band on our doorstep.

As of 7 pm, we have 3.75" OTG which is 1.5" the last hour - that's pretty heavy snow. Pounding here now. Still 25F. Very heavy band on our doorstep.

SIAP, but here's the latest from the NWS...if the underlined part about the snow/sleet/rain transition line being further SE than expected comes true, folks from Trenton to NYC will likely see mostly or all snow (and at least 8" and up to 12" and maybe more if the back end delivers), but that's certainly not a given. At current rates, we'll have 6" by 10 pm, the earliest any models showed sleet. We'll see... Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 555 PM EST Wed Dec 16 2020 NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Evening Update... The storm is well underway now, with steady to heavy snow, sleet, and rain having overspread all areas. Made a few tweaks to the snow amounts to reflect some observations, but we`re well past the point for any meaningful changes. In general the onset and ptype transition have gone about as expected and the forecast continues to track well for such a big event. If anything the cold air has held on a little longer than expected and certainly longer than a lot of this morning`s hi res guidance indicated, leading to some higher totals across portions of southern New Jersey. This includes here at the office where some massive snowflakes and snowfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour have been observed leading into the transition, which was happening here around 5:30 PM after about 4 inches of snow. That transition line continues to march north and there have been no changes to headlines or the overall forecast philosophy, with the sharp gradient appearing it will end up just slightly southeast of forecast especially in New Jersey. In addition to the ptype transition, satellite and radar also show the dry slot rapidly approaching from the southwest. This should lead to precipitation rates falling off significantly or precipitation ending completely for areas such as Delmarva and parts of southern New Jersey over the next few hours. Further north, snow rates are starting to come up significantly, and these areas remain in line for the highest totals. No noteworthy changes to the forecast to the north and west with a widespread 10 to 20 inches of snow still expected. Dry slotting should be less of a factor to the north, but banding will produce local variations in totals. Late tonight as the low starts to pull away, a final wrap-around band of precipitation may bring some additional snow to many areas, especially towards central and northern New Jersey. This could add on an inch or two of accumulation within a couple of hours during the predawn hours. In addition, falling temperatures later tonight could lead to a refreeze of any water or slush, yielding continued treacherous conditions into the morning. No changes to the wind forecast either, with winds steadily ramping up from south to north. A 60 to 70 kt easterly LLJ will continue to bring a lengthy period of gusty winds as it partially mixes down to the surface, especially along the coast and within the heavier precipitation. Gusts up to 60mph remain possible along the immediate coast this evening and into tonight, with 45 to 55mph gusts possible in the coastal plain and 35 to 45 mph gusts elsewhere. Storm total QPF continues to look mainly at or below 2 inches, possibly a bit higher along the New Jersey coast and towards the Poconos. Dry slotting should help keep liquid totals manageable in most areas. Outside of nuisance/poor drainage flooding, no hydro issues are anticipated. Marine and coastal flood headlines remain in effect, and are covered in their respective sections below.

Just got in from a wonderful Jebwalk with my wife, our son and his girlfriend. As of 6 pm we have 2.25" OTG (was only about 1" at 5 pm, so it's coming down) and it's 25/23F. Heavy snow right now with 1/4 mile visibiilty. Gorgeous out there - don't forget to get out in this stuff - snow angel time soon, lol.

Nice! That's where I grew up - WTHS Class of 80. Hated being on the wrong side of the rain/snow line growing up, relative to Philly and NW suburbs, but good to see it's overperforming for you already, as you're on the NWS ~1" line.