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RU848789

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Everything posted by RU848789

  1. RU848789
    This next band is now projectile vomting dendrites in my back yard, lol...going to skip the noon measurement, since I need a shower and am still wet from shoveling and measuring and walking around, lol...
  2. RU848789
    Just went for a walk in that insane snowfall and measured about 12" (tough with the blowing - 12" is the average of about 10 measurements in the back yard, which varied from about 10" to 14" - 2 are on my board, but the board becomes less useful with the wind). That would make about 2" in the last hour, which seems about right given how heavily the snow was falling for that last hour. Since about 11 am, the intensity has dropped off a bit to moderate snowfall (probably 1" per hour stuff). Temp up to 28F.
  3. RU848789
    OMFG, look at this radar snapshot from 10 am - that's 40-45DBZ over my house and insane rates over Somerset County. Some of the heaviest snow I've ever seen for the past 15-20 minutes. Was at 8.5" at 7 am, then 8.75" at 8 am (not much that hour), but then up to 9.5" at 9 am and 10.5" at 10 am and at the rate it's been falling since 10 am, I'm guessing we'll have close to 12" by 11 am. Shoveling (2nd shovel - my son shoveled at 10 pm after about 4") took me from about an hour. Hard work, but so nice being outside in it. Walked around a bit afterwards taking my measurements and just enjoying it.
  4. RU848789
    Yeah, I recall that, which is part of why I picked that time to snooze!
  5. RU848789
    Didn't get that much overnight while I snoozed. Went from 7.0" at 2 am to 8.5" at 7 am. From what the NWS discussion said, sounds like there was a lull, which was underway when I went to sleep around 2:30 am, plus some sleet/freezing rain fell with the lighter precip. Snowing moderately right now at 28F. Let's see if we get the 13=14" additional inches my point-and-click forecast says for Metuchen, which would be within the 12-18" the NWS map shows for 7 am through tomorrow for our swath in the map below (and close to the 13" of additional snow shown for nearby New Brunswick) from 7 am until the end, which would give me 21-22" total. I like the "expected snowfall" maps from 7 am this morning through 7 am Weds (with most of it today, obviously), but wish they'd also include a "storm total" graphic.
  6. RU848789
    Just went for a "JebWalk" - a beautiful night in the snow. Up to 7.0" here in Metuchen as of 2 am and yes, it's still 23F. Snow has been very light the last 20 minutes or so and the radar looks spotty for awhile, so this could be a good time to nap.
  7. RU848789
    Snow was a bit lighter the last hour, so as of 1 am we have 6.5" in Metuchen (1/2" last hour) and it's still 23F. I'm guessing this stuff is 15:1 ratio snow, since I've been able to "shovel" it with a broom.
  8. RU848789
    Another inch the last hour, so we're up to 6.0" as of 12:00 am in Metuchen. Still 23F.
  9. RU848789
    This may also be obvious, but I'm hyped up on snow fumes, lol. With 5" down here and in many other locations in CNJ (and other locations, like EPA and soon in NNJ/NYC), at the rate we're going, we should have 7-9" by 7 am (6 hours), assuming 2-4" more by then. And if the coastal cranks up and delivers the 10-14" of heavy snow from 7 am to 7 pm shown by all of the models, some are going to see totals of 17-23" by 7 pm Monday with another 3-5" forecast after 7 pm by most models - that could get some to 20-28", which would easily be top 5-10 for this area (at least for the 95 corridor; well inland has had more big storms than that), as there have been 7 storms over 20" in NYC (and 11 over 18") in 151 years of record-keeping. At this point, IMO, 12" is a lock for almost all of CNJ/NNJ/NYC (except the immediate NJ coast) and 18" is likely and 24" is very possible - barring some unforseen changeover or dry slot or nuts shooting lasers at the sky to kill the snow.
  10. RU848789
    As of 11 pm, we're up to 5.0" in Metuchen, with the heavist snowfall of the night - 1" last hour. Still 23F.
  11. RU848789
    Ripping snow right now - on the edge of heavy, but not quite there. Still heaviest snow of the night so far. 25-30 DBZ now.
  12. RU848789
    Up to 4.0" as of 10 pm in Metuchen - 1/2" over the last half hour. Temp steady at 23F. It's freakin' gorgeous out there - go take a walk if you haven't yet...
  13. RU848789
    Haven't been reading so forgive me if this has been said or is obvious, but keep in mind that just about every 18Z model (1 pm data inputs) had most of CNJ at 1-2" right about now, so the fact that most seem to have 2-4" as of 10 pm means the storm is exceeding expectations, so far. Also, the snow overnight isn't supposed to be that heavy, as the coastal low is just getting going now off the NC coast, so most of the models have CNJ in the 5-7" range at 7 am tomorrow, with the heavy snow from 7 am to 7 pm (a foot or more). And in NNJ/NYC, add 2-3 hours to those numbers. On FB and a couple of non-weather boards, people are wondering why we don't have more snow...
  14. RU848789
    Up to 3.5" as of 9 pm at 23F; snow has let up a bit and also smaller flake size, so presumably lower ratio.
  15. RU848789
    And up to 2.75" OTG in Metuchen at 7 pm at 23F.
  16. RU848789
    A guy on another board is saying he only has 1/2" in NE Philly - sounds low, especially with us having 2.5" up in the Edison area - anyone there?
  17. RU848789
    Just got back from getting takeout (Woodstack in Metuchen - really good flatbreads, pastas and specialty dishes). Roads getting pretty bad as we now have 2.25" as of 6 pm (3/4" the last hour), which is definitely beyond what was expected now (<1" on all models). Still 24F and snowing moderately - big fluffy flakes, so I'm guessing our snow/liquid ratio is at least 15:1 (usually about 10:1 here).
  18. RU848789
    As of 5 pm we had 1.5" and it was still 24F in Metuchen.
  19. RU848789
    Just got in from a ride around town and a bit on 287 and it's pretty slick out there with the cold temps (24F) and the snow sticking easily and probably melting/refreezing some. Saw a couple of spin-outs locally and even 287 is starting to get a little slushy. 1" already on the ground in Metuchen at 4 pm, which is certainly early.
  20. RU848789
    Surprisingly, as of 2:30 pm, in Metuchen, we already have 1/2" of light, fluffy snow - gorgeous dendrites - and it's 23F.
  21. RU848789
    NWS issued their updated snowfall maps, going with an 8-12" range for most of their counties in the Philly and NYC offices, but no 12-18" amounts, which is reasonable, given we're almost 48 hours out still and things can still deviate from their forecast (like the 6Z NAM with less or the 6Z RGEM with a lot more - and they have plenty of time to adjust upwards from 8-12" swaths if needed - the 8-12" amounts get the point across that a prety major snowfall is likely. I didn't like how aggressive they got early on with the 12-18"/18-24" predictions, most of which didn't verify (and they backed off on them before the storm started).
  22. RU848789
    Not sure if posted (no time to keep up, lol), but I like these regional maps best - people should also note that they're only through 7 pm Monday...
  23. RU848789
    I know - the poster I was responding to was comparing the 12Z UK and 0Z Euro...
  24. RU848789
    Kind of, although the Euro was still much better than the 12Z UK, which was a complete whiff N of 276/195.
  25. RU848789
    Walt - I've asked this question numerous times over the years and never really gotten a good response, but I don't recall asking you, so here goes. Does there exist somewhere data on accuracy scores of the various models for snowstorms and especially NE snowstorms (and NYC metro would be even better, lol)? We always hear that the verification scores (which are based on general 500mbar data verification, from what I recall) show the Euro best, then the UK, then the CMC/GFS lagging those two, but I think many people would love to know which models are best for snowstorms at various timepoints before the storm (5 days, 3 days, 1 day, etc.). Any help here or is it just "rules of thumb" based on anecdotes and/or memory of mets who've been around a long time? If not, maybe it's time for someone to do this as a PhD dissertation and then use it to coauthor the 3rd edition of the Kocin-Uccinelli book on NE snowstorms. Thanks!
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