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RU848789

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  1. RU848789
    All of the 12Z global/regional models have measurable precip over by 2 pm Thursday, with some over by 8 am to 11 am (except the Euro which isn't in yet). For selfish reasons (our RU football tailgate starts around 2 pm and the game is at 6:30 pm), I'm hoping that verifies. I won't love wet grass and maybe some mud, but it's way better than falling rain. Looks like the afternoon and evening could end up being very nice in Piscataway. Any comments on rainfall end time? Thanks!!
  2. RU848789
    I would assume the water pumps have backup generators...
  3. RU848789
    Dr. Knabb (former NHC Director) was just on TWC saying the exact same thing about how hard it is to predict tracks without having a closed circulation, but obviously he also is worried about this one, since there is some chance it could become a very dangerous storm in the Gulf.
  4. RU848789
    Not sure if this has been posted, but look at the radar-indicated rainfall in parts of CNJ and NYC/NENJ, especially southern Middlesex (over 9" in Cranbury) and parts of Somerset, Hunterdon, Mercer, Monmouth, Ocean, and Burlington. Nuts.
  5. RU848789
    Very surprised the NHC didn't upgrade SE MA, the Islands and at least the south facing shore of Cape Cod to hurricane warnings, as they're closer to the center of the track than western Suffolk County - and they're to the east of the center, which should see greater winds/storm surge. Just don't get it.
  6. RU848789
    Yep, another 30 miles west, moving from about Southampton to Sayville since 5 pm. Was at the CT/RI border at 11 am and was at Newport at 5 am, so quite a change in 18 hours. Only 55 miles from Manhattan, so 2 more nudges west. If you had asked me yesterday if I thought NYC was really at risk I would've said it was theoretically possible, but not happening. Hmmm...
  7. RU848789
    Love when Dr. Knabb (former NHC Director) is on TWC analyzing tropical systems. He's seeing strong signs of strengthening, as others here have: better outflow, improved convection, less shear, better organization. He's concerned it'll go above the 85 mph forecast and has concerns about how far west the storm goes - and where it stalls and heads west a bit - if that happens sooner, then NYC is at significant risk of a direct hit or close call and if later, the amount of rain we might see in parts of interior New England and NY State could be biblical.
  8. RU848789
    lol...or if we consider Schroedinger's cat, we shouldn't bother ever making a forecast, since the act of making a forecast destroys the forecast...
  9. RU848789
    Anywhere to get a good graphic on rainfall over the past week or for July to date for our area? Thanks. iweathernet has a radar composite map for up to the past 72 hours, but not further out than that...
  10. RU848789
    They don't make a measurement when the precip changes? They're supposed to... If snow and rain are mixed and there is snow that accumulates, report the precipitation (melted) in the gauge as your daily precipitation, and report the maximum accumulation of the new snow as Snowfall. If the snow is likely to melt before the official observation time, it is best to measure the depth of the new snow as soon as possible after the snow ends before it has a chance to melt. Be sure to include that you had mixed precipitation in your comments. https://www.weather.gov/coop/Forms-Manuals-Equipment
  11. RU848789
    Started mixing around 12:45 with rain, so I measured and got 1.75"; since then it's been mostly rain (not sleet, as the dual pol indicates it might be) with some flakes mixed in. That might be it for us, unless it's an intensity issue, but that's all bonus snow. Still 33F.
  12. RU848789
    As of 12:30 pm we're up to 1.5" and it's pouring snow at 33F. Gorgeous. Hoping the rain holds off, but the radar looks close for sleet, I assume.
  13. RU848789
    As of 11:55 am we have 3/4" on colder surfaces and a slushy accumulation on paved surfaces with moderate to almost heavy snowfall rates; street in front of the house now has slush on it yet. Temp down to 33F now and if it stays there, we could be in for a few inches of snow. This one appears to be overperforming almost everywhere.
  14. RU848789
    Well that escalated quickly - moderate snow now and 35F (wet bulb is 32F).
  15. RU848789
    Light snow started in Metuchen around 10:45 am; it dropped from 38 to 36F in the last 20 minutes and has more room to drop with a dp of 26F. Any snow today is bonus snow, IMO.
  16. RU848789
    Has anyone seen snowfall maps from the NWS, either the offices or those regional maps we sometimes see? I find it very frustrating that they're not shown prominently somewhere on each office's homepages (or at least on their winter weather pages) or FB pages. Didn't see them on that Eastern Region page either. @wdrag maybe?
  17. RU848789
    This is also one of those rare events (at least around here) where the "best" surface to measure on is the previous snow, since it was hard packed and a ruler wouldn't go through it, plus, since it's frozen, it's at 32F, max, by definition (it can be colder, but not warmer), so snow will accumulate on it immediately (as long as the snowfall rate exceeds the melting rate from the ambient conditions). The snow works especially well on a day like today, where the wind is light, so it doesn't really matter much where one measures.
  18. RU848789
    Well we had 1/4" about2 hours ago and then one last band just now. Holy crap, I stayed outside for almost all of this last band, as it was just stunningly gorgeous - not to get maudlin about it, but at my age you never know when it'll be your last storm, lol. Not the heaviest snow I've ever seen, visibility/intensity-wise, but some of the most beautiful, feathery, cotton-candiest dendrites I've ever seen, with most 1/2-3/4" across and some even up to 1" across and they nestled so pefectly together on top of the snow and whitened up every surface including all the trees (and paved surfaces, so be careful, although it only took 5 minutes to broom it away). We got another 1/2" over about 30 minutes, bringing my total today to 1.75" and my storm total to 5.75". A perfect ending to a great storm - and yes, this is the last of it for CNJ and should be over down the shore in the next 30-45 minutes and it might be even more snow down there, i.e., I could see some picking up 3/4" from this band. Seasonal total now up to 41.75".
  19. RU848789
    Snow is essentially over for now and "only" got 1.0" (thought I might get more), which brings us to 5" for the "event" (I think yesterday and today are being counted together). I wonder if the midday almost-late-Feb indirect sun is doing a bit of work on the falling snow, even at 30F. I would expect this 1" to be gone by the end of the afternoon if we get no more snow.
  20. RU848789
    That was a quick 3/4" in about 40-45 minutes (about 1" per hour rates), although it's now just snowing lightly; however the radar shows another band coming in which isn't as big or as heavy looking as this past one, but should be enough to get us to an inch. Could be treacherous on top of the ice, since people won't see the ice now when walking or driving and this fluff won't stop you from sliding - I know, I almost just fell.
  21. RU848789
    Snowing nicely now! Moderate snowfall with nice big dendrites! Should easily get at least an inch from this, judging by the radar.
  22. RU848789
    People need to be careful out there. I just woke up from a nap and missed the freezing rain (ZR). We have a decent glaze (guessing 0.05-0.10") on everything and it's slippery on any untreated surface. Luckily I had put salt down where I had shoveled.
  23. RU848789
    So, we got almost all sleet since this post around 1:00 pm, when I cleared the board (it had been 6 hours), and we got another 1/2" of sleet over the last 1.5 hours, so that makes 4.0" of snow/sleet, which includes about 1" of sleet, which is equivalent to about 3.3" of snow (if one uses a conservative 3" sleet to 1" liquid to 10" snow (some use 2.5:1), 1" sleet is equivalent to about 3.3" of snow). So I have a "snow equivalent" of 6.3", which I'm pretty happy with. I usually shovel in shots, but I was out today, so I did it all at once and it absolutely felt like ~6" of snow. Would've been much prettier to have had all snow, but plenty of models were showing sleet up through the 95 corridor, so can't complain. Would be nice to get another inch or two tonight/tomorrow morning. We'll see.
  24. RU848789
    Did some "forensics" and closely inspected the snow "column" and I have about 3" of snow underneath about 1/2" of the mixed rimed snow/sleet (was definitely looking like pure sleet in there and others have said we had sleet while I was gone). If that layer is ~3:1 like most sleet, then 1/2" of it is about 1.6" of 10:1 snow, meaning I would have had about 4.6" of snow if it had been all regular snow, which makes more sense. Right now it keeps going back and forth between pure sleet (I checked it closely and it's sleet) and giant aggregates of snowflakes - if we could get an hour of these aggregates, we'd accumulate pretty quickly, but I have no clue what we're going to get for the next 1-2 hours whlie we're still getting decent precip. I did predict "3.5" of snow, then 1" of sleet (3" snow equivalent) on Thursday, then 1.5" of snow on Friday over a long period" yesterday for my house, which could end up being close.
  25. RU848789
    Just drove back from Elizabeth to Metuchen with my son, after stopping for White Castle of course and it was snow until about Woodbridge, when I heard pinging on the windshield and I thought, no damn this can't be sleet already as the met on 1010 WINS said the sleet line was in Manasquan. Sounds like it was more like rimed snow (with supercooled liquid that crystallizes as ice on snowflakes, making them kind of large and hard) - didn't see the classic small discrete perfectly formed sleet pellets (usually somewhat cubic) that were clear ice and they definitely made noise like sleet - have only seen that a few times. From what I heard we had a fair amount of that rimed snow, but also sleet while I was gone. Had 2.25" at 10 am and now have 3.5" at noon, which is only 1.25" in the last 2 hours - if that had been all snow, it would have been 2-3"+, looking at the radar intensity. Oh well, still a cool storm with more to go. Currently a mix of sleet and snow.
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