RU848789

As of 9:30 am 4.5" of snow on the ground at 32F as we only got 1/2" over the last hour, due to being stuck in what looks like a subsidence lull. Might keep us from getting above 6" if this doesn't end soon.

I'm assuming that's subsidence and not a dry slot per se - we're stuck in it too

Here's a quote from a friend of mine who was at the NWS in New Mexico for 30+ years: "Been years since I’ve seen the models perform so poorly…especially in the east. One of my coworkers was a modeler in Environment Canada. We were talking how ******* the performance has been with this system. He thought it was because the upper wave went across the Rockies where drag slowed it down and weakened the system. A combination of fewer inputs into the models that far west and the diffuse nature of the upper system (and model resolution) had a big effect in model performance. This is something he has seen before (he is more into theoretical meteorology)."

Been snowing pretty heavily the past hour, so as of 8:30 am we have 4.0" on the ground, so that was 1.75" the past hour, which is ripping. Just did my first driveway/sidewalk shovel and that's heart attack heavy snow, especially the bottom half which has the sleet/wetter snow. The snow the past hour has to be greater than 10:1 ratio snow - much drier and gorgeous dendrites. 32-33F right now.

Been snowing pretty heavily the past hour, so as of 8:30 am we have 4.0" on the ground, so that was 1.75" the past hour, which is ripping. Just did my first driveway/sidewalk shovel and that's heart attack heavy snow, especially the bottom half which has the sleet/wetter snow. The snow the past hour has to be greater than 10:1 ratio snow - much drier and gorgeous dendrites. 32-33F right now.

Puking snow right now - heaviest in 2 years!

Puking snow right now - heaviest in 2 years!

As of 7:30 pm, 32F and snowing heavily with 2.25" OTG, so that's 1" in the last hour. With maybe 4-5 hours of snow left, think we can get to 6" but maybe not my 7.2" forecast unless we really get into a heavy band for awhile.

As of 7:30 pm, 32F and snowing heavily with 2.25" OTG, so that's 1" in the last hour. With maybe 4-5 hours of snow left, think we can get to 6" but maybe not my 7.2" forecast unless we really get into a heavy band for awhile.

It is pretty out there - just got in from a Jebwalk - lots of reports of accidents as local roads are treacherous right now with sleet underneath snow.

It is pretty out there - just got in from a Jebwalk - lots of reports of accidents as local roads are treacherous right now with sleet underneath snow.

As of 7 am, down to 32F and 1.75" OTG and snowing close to heavily now, with 1"/hour rates the past 30 minutes. It's gorgeous out there with everything covered - first plow just went by our house. TWC was just discussing how the low pressure off DelMarVa is strengthening and noting that short term forecasts are for 1-2" per hour for the next 3-4 hours for much of CNJ/NYC/NENJ.

As of 7 am, down to 32F and 1.75" OTG and snowing close to heavily now, with 1"/hour rates the past 30 minutes. It's gorgeous out there with everything covered - first plow just went by our house. TWC was just discussing how the low pressure off DelMarVa is strengthening and noting that short term forecasts are for 1-2" per hour for the next 3-4 hours for much of CNJ/NYC/NENJ.

As of 6:30 am, still 33F and 1.25" of snow on the ground and snowing moderately - that's only 1/2" per hour rates - going to need more than that to even get to 5-6", let alone 7-8".

As of 6:30 am, still 33F and 1.25" of snow on the ground and snowing moderately - that's only 1/2" per hour rates - going to need more than that to even get to 5-6", let alone 7-8".

Given the overperforming snow to the NW, the NWS reraised snowfall forecasts for that area to 8-12", as per the map below.

Given the overperforming snow to the NW, the NWS reraised snowfall forecasts for that area to 8-12", as per the map below.

As of 5 am, we were at 33F with 1/2" of mixed snow/sleet on the ground and as of 6 am it's still 33F and we have almost 1" of snow/sleet on the ground with it being all snow since about 5:30 pm with moderate snow falling now (nice dendrites). Going to need more intensity (more than 1" per hour and we've been less than that), though, to get more than 7" by noon, when things wind down.. I woke up at 5 am so I didn't see the changeover, but the radar indicates we likely changed from rain to snow around 4 am. Every surface is covered including the streets in front of our house and it's likely having some sleet helped with overcoming melting as sleet pellets have a much lower surface area per unit volume than snowflakes and melting only occurs at the surface, so melting is much slower for sleet.

As of 6 am, it's still 33F and we have almost 1" of snow/sleet on the ground with it being all snow sinsce about 5:30 pm with moderate snow falling now (nice dendrites). Going to need more intensity (more than 1" per hour and we've been less than that), though, to get more than 7" by noon, when things wind down.

As of 5 am, we're at 33F with 1/2" of mixed snow/sleet on the ground. Just woke up at 5 am so I didn't see the changeover, but the radar indicates we likely changed from rain to snow around 4 am. Every surface is covered including the streets in front of our house and it's likely having some sleet helped with overcoming melting as sleet pellets have a much lower surface area per unit volume than snowflakes and melting only occurs at the surface, so melting is much slower for sleet. For all of those saying snow/sleet wouldn't accumulate after the rain with above 32F temperatures, you should've paid attention to my days of posts on this, lol.

Well folks, I just looked at all the major recent models at 0Z and 18Z (that haven't run 0Z yet) and apart from the GFS (not counting the CMC or UK which are too "old" now), the consensus is growing pretty strong for a colder storm with less intense snow (and less rain to start) putting down maybe 6-9" of 10:1 snow (of which maybe 5-7" actually accumulates at maybe 8:1 ratio) with 32-33F temps during the 4 am to 10 am timeframe where 90% falls (still a respectable 1" per hour of falling snow) and this seems to be the case for the whole 95 corridor from Trenton (and maybe even SW to Philly) to SE CT and 30-40 miles NW of that line and 30-40 miles SE of that line. Sure some folks who thought they were going to get smoked are likely not and some who thought they were out of it (SE of 95 especially) will do well and at least NYC metro looks to do decently (on grass at least), which is nice given how long it's been for them. And who knows, maybe some of us will get a few inches more than expected with some better rates than are being forecast right now. That's all a preface to say that if you had told me a week ago or even 2 days ago that this event might deliver 5-7" of snow, I'd have been ecstatic. Sure getting a monster storm over a foot would be awesome, but this is way better for snow lovers than an inch of sloppy slush on only grass many of us were looking at. I'm going to go out and walk around in this at least every 30 minutes and measure and hope I can get to my prediction of 7.2" for my house made last night, but considering my first guess was 2" two days ago, I'm pretty sure I'll be smiling on my JebWalks around the neighborhood. Pretty sure I'll even make a snowman with this stuff and a snow angel or two. Enjoy it folks and then let's hope a few of these other threats over the next 10 days deliver at least a few inches and maybe one blows up. It's been a pleasure tracking with everyone and I hope at least most of you get the snow you hoped for (or some of it).

This is wrong. Intensity is the key. At >1" per hour, snow will accumulate in April at midday at 35F, so 33-34F in the morning in February won't be an issue - if we get that intensity, which is more than enough to overcome the melting rate. Ratios more likely to be in the 7-9:1 range unless you're talking about areas where mixing is occurring in the column.

Those scores are always nice to know for accuracy from a big picture perspective, but what's important right now and in every storm is which model is most accurate for snowstorms and are there different types of snowstorms one vs. another model is better for? And nobody has ever really given more than anecdotal opinions on that that I can recall.

Did this for 0Z, so figured I'd do it for 12Z with the same preface, i.e., posting the relevant snow maps at 10:1, as that provides direct data on snowfall QPF, plus the algorithms for snow ratios aren't always accurate in cases of high intensity snow. I'm sure we've all discussed ad nauseum how for this storm, especially for areas S of 78 and east of maybe the NJ TPK, surface temps are likely to be in the 33-35F range, leading to melting/compaction which would make the snow ratio produced up high in the sky (which should be >10:1 given great dynamics in the DGZ) something somewhat less on the ground as accumulated snow, but with >1"/hr snowfall it's likely that Kuchera and snow depth algorithms are too low. They're 6-7:1 for areas with any temp above 32F, but with the expected intensity, I think we'll see more like 8-9:1 for 95/south of 78 (although Kuchera are probably good where there are column temp issues near where there are changeovers, i.e., at the coast. So take these maps as starting points for how much snow might actually accumulate.

Likely Dr. Greg Postell, who's a little pompous (many PhDs are and I should know, lol), but knows his stuff. Dr. Knabb former NHC Director is also awesome, as are many of the regular shift folks and as schmaltzy as he can be Cantore is fun and does know his stuff.