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RU848789

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Everything posted by RU848789

  1. RU848789
    Dropped from 45 to 39F over the past hour here in Metuchen, as the rain started finally reaching the ground in the last 30 minutes. Hoping that that heavy slug approaching from Somerset/Hunterdon and seemingly aimed at us in northern Middlesex will get here as it changes to snow - would love to get 1-2" out of this even if it's just on the colder surfaces, but at the rates advertised for a couple of hours by the mesoscale models, I think the snow will even accumulate on paved surfaces. We'll see.
  2. RU848789
    This is where we need better ptype algorithms or to at least have them explained better. This is a perfect example of how TT and Pivotal account for sleet (TT counts it as 10:1 snow, while Pivotal does not appear to count it at all). Look at those two vs. CoolWx graphic for EWR, showing 3" of snow and then 0.88" LE as sleet (about 3" of sleet) and a little rain. If this is right, this would be a major winter storm, just without the pretty snow falling (sleet is just as hard to plow as snow - same mass per inch of LE - and it melts more slowly than snow due to its much lower surface area per unit volume in each particle). And even though TT is showing about 0.3-0.4" frozen LE for EWR (vs. maybe 0.1" for Pivotal), that's a helluva lot less than the 1.14" frozen LE for CoolWx - so their algorithm for determining ptype must be a bit different. It's why mixed precip events are so hard to model/forecast. I don't have a lot of experience with the CoolWx model precip type representations...
  3. RU848789
    I'd say this was one of the best snowfall forecasts ever by the NWS, which is pretty easy to see from the graphic of reported snowfall vs the NWS predictions above (reproduced the regional one, below, as it includes NWS Philly and NYC forecasts). Areas along 78 generally got 2.5-3.5" with little to no rain but some sleet as predicted, areas along/N of 80 generally got 4-6" with all snow as predicted (even including the Bronx), while areas south of about Ewing to Perth Amboy generally got 1" or less, as predicted. And their prediction for my house in Metuchen was 2" and I got...wait for it...2". The only area their forecast was a bit low was some of NYC and adjacent NENJ, where there were predictions for 2-4/3-5" and most got 1-3" (at least for central/southern NYC and eastern Union/Esses and Hudson); the LI and Hudson Valley forecasts were also quite good, with ~2" on the south shore of LI up to 5" on the north shore, as predicted and 5-7" for most of the Hudson Valley as predicted. I still think the Central Park measurement of 1.8" was quite low, given nearby LGA getting 2.7" and another report in Manhattan of 3.0", as well as the likelihood of compaction reducing their measurement.
  4. RU848789
    We've had a minor dendrite miracle, as it just flipped back to a snow/sleet mixture 10 minutes ago and we now have 0.3" of sleet/snow mix since the lull (luckily sleet doesn't melt or compact nearly as quickly as snow, so the 0.2" of sleet we had didn't budge over the last hour of mostly rain with some sleet), bringing our total snow/sleet accumulation to 2.0". Not sure how much longer this will last, but it was a nice surprise.
  5. RU848789
    After the lull, we've had a decent rate of mostly sleet falling since about 10:45 pm, with about 0.2" sleet accumulation through 11:30 pm, bringing our total snow/sleet accumulation to 1.9". Looks like the snow might be over as it's raining south of the Driscoll Bridge just about 5 miles SE from here, although if we get more intensity, it could flip back to snow as snow is only about 5 miles N of me, lol. It's 34F.
  6. RU848789
    As of 10 pm, we have 1.7" OTG, as the snow let up a fair amount since about 9:45 pm; snowing lightly now and we have what looks to be an hour or so lull coming up before the next slug could hit and then another lull before the next big batch in EPA hits, unless the radar fills in. Hoping we can still squeeze some snow out of what's to come. Still 33F.
  7. RU848789
    Holy crap, snowing close to heavily now, as we got 3/4" in the last 30 min (1.5"/hr rate) and have 1" OTG! As expected snowfall rates are now overcoming melting rates and driveways/sidewalks are covered and the street is partially covered (modest traffic on it). Down to 34F.
  8. RU848789
    Was light snow here in Metuchen from 6-8 pm with little accumulation and temps in the 36-37F range, but in the last 20-30 minutes, snow rate has picked up (moderate snow now) and we've now doubled our seasonal snowfall of 1/4", as we have a 1/4" on the ground now lol. Snow is accumulating on colder surfaces (not pavement yet, but soon, I think) with temps down to 35F. Woohoo! Would love to make my pre-storm prediction of 2.5" for my house (or more obviously).
  9. RU848789
    The night before the snowfall that could provide ten times as much snow vs. what we've had this entire winter through almost the end of February and there's nobody posting on the Euro. Might have to give you folks a timeout, lol. Anyway, not going to do analysis, other than to say the output is very similar to 18Z, which is good, as other models have pulled back a bit on snowfall vs. 18Z (not hugely, but moreso on the southern fringes, i.e., where I live).
  10. RU848789
    Same in the City: one of those storms that could put down 2" at JFK, 4" at LGA/CPK and 6" in Riverdale. Same in my neck of the woods, where we could see 2" in Edison, 4" in Summit and 6" in Parsippany. At this point, I'll take 2" and then rain, just to see some snow for a few hours, but I won't turn down 4-6" either, lol.
  11. RU848789
    NWS still not buying more than a few inches south of 80 and has 1" or less south of 78, but they did move a little snowier vs. this morning (when they had no snow south of 78) and they do tend to not like making big jumps with model jumps, which kind of makes sense...
  12. RU848789
    I'll countersue, lol. I love sleet and think we should multiply what falls by 3 to get to about 10:1.
  13. RU848789
    Pretty sure the UK is still 2nd, although those model verification scores are typically based on 500 mbar temps/pressures, iirc, and I don't know if we have accuracy scores on what all of us want, i.e., on NE US winter storms (I've asked some pros before and nobody has said we have that kind of data).
  14. RU848789
    Was outside this morning around 8 am and measured about 0.2" of snow on my car top and back deck (all surfaces were covered, but paved surfaces were covered unevenly). Just got back and we actually still have about the same amount as of 9 am, so very little melted (it's up to 29F from a low around 27F, so it's been below freezing). Schools had a delayed opening (just kidding).
  15. RU848789
    Been snowing lightly here for about 20 minutes at 29F and we officially have a dusting. which is about 0.1", so my snowless winter is over, lol. Looks like most places are getting some measurable snow in E PA, most of NJ, NYC/LHV/LI, with my guess being that some bands have delivered at least 1/4" for some and maybe close to 1/2". Woohoo!
  16. RU848789
    Looks like NENJ (Union to Bergen) and NYC/LHV got a period of snow around 3 am or so, at least by the radar, unless it was heavy virga. Any reports? Looks like a band might hit my area shortly - hope it's actual snow...
  17. RU848789
    Looks like NENJ (Union to Bergen) and NYC/LHV got a period of snow around 3 am or so, at least by the radar, unless it was heavy virga. Any reports? Looks like a band might hit my area shortly - hope it's actual snow...
  18. RU848789
    Remember, if it weren't for air conditioning, nobody would live in the south except farmers, like it used to be...
  19. RU848789
    Look at the urban heat island effect in Kenilworth, NJ (just west of Elizabeth), where it's 50F right now, lol. All kidding aside, it's always interesting to see the lack of any UHI when it's very windy, as the continuous convection whisks that heat away easily - pretty much the same temps everywhere, except well NW of 95, where there is some elevation. Quote
  20. RU848789
    Well it's almost 1 pm and temps in NW Sussex/Warren and the Poconos are at or below 32F - good luck with the snow. We started as sleet here in the Edison area around noon and got a tiny coating before the quick changeover to rain. That's it until late next week for us...
  21. RU848789
    GFS finally on board, but a day later - and of course, the CMC loses the storm at 12Z - let's see if the Euro still shows a big snowstorm at 12Z. Still in fantasy land, but I'd rather have models showing a potential major storm 7-8 days out than none at all...
  22. RU848789
    0Z NAM is even colder/snowier with regard to the southern extent of significant snow (except for the weird snow hole over Scranton). If either of these were to verify or even be close, there are going to be a lot of surprised people.
  23. RU848789
    Hard to ignore the significantly colder 12Z NAM and GFS solutions relative to earlier runs. Let's see if other models hop on board. Not going to "save" the 95 corridor, but would have big implications for the Lehigh Valley, Poconos, NWNJ, and the Hudson Valley.
  24. RU848789
    I should probably know this, but is there somewhere that captures when a first frost and freeze actually occurred for towns/counties in our area? Tons of websites out there listing average first frosts and freezes, but havent seen what I'm asking about. Based on the NWS map, I would assume Sussex/Warren and the Poconos have already had their first freezes, since they're not included in the freeze warnings (they don't get issued after the first freeze, which marks the end of the growing season; not sure if frost advisories get reissued after the first frost and before the first freeze, though). TIA.
  25. RU848789
    Like always? Meaning everything reported to date by the media on Ian has been BS? Of course not, the reporting has generally been fantastic. Such an ignorant statement.
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