RU848789

So, up to 3.0" at 1:30 am, meaning 0.75" the last hour, with greater intensity, obviously, and the radar continues to look quite good, with moderate to almost heavy snow coming down - probably 3/8 of a mile visibility. Down to 27F.

So, up to 3.0" at 1:30 am, meaning 0.75" the last hour, with greater intensity, obviously, and the radar continues to look quite good, with moderate to almost heavy snow coming down - probably 3/8 of a mile visibility. Down to 27F.

As of 12:30 am, we're up to 2.25", for almost 1/2" the past hour and just in the last few minutes it started really picking up in intensity and I see the radar finally showing over 20 dBZ. Maybe we can get into 1" per hour rates, being not too far from the SPC's mesoscale discussion about 1-3" per hour rates through much of SNJ and the coast for the next few hours. 28F.

As of 12:30 am, we're up to 2.25", for almost 1/2" the past hour and just in the last few minutes it started really picking up in intensity and I see the radar finally showing over 20 dBZ. Maybe we can get into 1" per hour rates, being not too far from the SPC's mesoscale discussion about 1-3" per hour rates through much of SNJ and the coast for the next few hours. 28F.

As of 11:30 pm, up to 1.8", but only 0.3" the last hour, as the intensity let up some. Down to 29F. Radar looks like some heavier bands are en route.

As of 11:30 pm, up to 1.8", but only 0.3" the last hour, as the intensity let up some. Down to 29F. Radar looks like some heavier bands are en route.

Just went for a nice walk - it's spectacular out there - gorgeous dendrites sparkling under the lights outside! We're up to 1.5" as of 10:35, so 1/2" the last hour and well ahead of scheudule (1" by 1 am predicted by the NWS). Temp down to 30F. Radar looking good and finally looking good for our friends out in Hunterdon/Mercer/Somerset Counties, finally. Started to get excited about this overperforming here.

Just went for a nice walk - it's spectacular out there - gorgeous dendrites sparkling under the lights outside! We're up to 1.5" as of 10:35, so 1/2" the last hour and well ahead of scheudule (1" by 1 am predicted by the NWS). Temp down to 30F. Radar looking good and finally looking good for our friends out in Hunterdon/Mercer/Somerset Counties, finally. Started to get excited about this overperforming here.

Oh so that's only half from tonight's storm? Yeah, that's more like what I would've expected out there by now. Thanks.

As of about 9:35, we're up to 1". Coming down close to moderately at 30F. Didn't expect to have an inch until 11-12, so feels like we're ahead of schedule.

As of about 9:35, we're up to 1"!! Coming down close to moderately at 30F. Didn't expect to have an inch until 11-12, so feels like we're ahead of schedule

As of about 9:35, we're up to 1"!! Coming down close to moderately at 30F. Didn't expect to have an inch until 11-12, so feels like we're ahead of schedule.

??

As of 9 pm, we only picked up another 1/8" since 8:30 pm, as the snow let up, meaning we have 5/8". However, the radar is looking great and intensity just picked up and it's coming down nicely. Also, so far the snow that's falling is easily 15-20:1 snow to liquid, with very nicely formed dendrites making a nice fluffy snow. Not sure how long that will last, but if we can retain this kind of crystal growth in the DGZ once the precip gets heavier, we could pile up some snow quickly during the first half of the night - one of the pros on 33 said he thought we'd retain good snow growth through the first half of the storm. Down to 30F.

Wow, isn't that what already half of what you were supposed to get for the whole storm (3-6")?

As of 9 pm, we only picked up another 1/8" since 8:30 pm, as the snow let up, meaning we have 5/8". However, the radar is looking great and intensity just picked up and it's coming down nicely. Also, so far the snow that's falling is easily 15-20:1 snow to liquid, with very nicely formed dendrites making a nice fluffy snow. Not sure how long that will last, but if we can retain this kind of crystal growth in the DGZ once the precip gets heavier, we could pile up some snow quickly during the first half of the night - one of the pros on another board said he thought we'd retain good snow growth through the first half of the storm. Down to 30F.

We got what looks to be a nice bonus band that was really thin and just happened to come right over us (see pic - Edison, by 287/TPK) from about 7:40 until 8:20 as per the pic and it put down our first 1/2" as of about 8:25 pm. Everything covered, including roads, as I was just out to get takeout (Fire and Flavor - yum!). 31F.

Been snowing lightly in Metuchen since about 7:10 pm - a new dusting after 1/4" earlier today, which was gone. 32F. C'mon, want to get my predicted 8.25"!

One more try: @wdrag@SnowGoose69@forkyfork or anyone who might know? Anyone? Bueller?

@wdrag@SnowGoose69@forkyfork or anyone who might know: does anyone know whether the NWS uses ratios (Kuchera or other) in constructing their snowfall maps or if they just use 10:1? With the latest NWS-Philly maps being so bullish, it makes me think they're factoring in something like 15:1 ratios, so 8-12" of 10:1 snow becomes 12-18" at 15:1, for the immediate coast, for example. Thanks!

You wouldn't happen to have the 12Z NBM map would you? TIA...

Got a nice little dusting in Metuchen this evening on all surfaces (it's <29F) like most have in the region - some could get up to 1/2" in the 95 corridor and towards the coast and could be an inch or so N of 78 in Somerset/Hunterdon and the Lehigh Valley and up to 2" in the Poconos/far NWNJ, according to the NWS. Sneaky little clipper. It could get slippery tonight/overnight, especially N of 78. It's very light/fluffy snow, by the way. Need to measure, but the Bills-Chiefs game is enthralling...https://www.weather.gov/phi/

This AFD was when we knew we might be in trouble and it just got worse from there. Didn't help that the 0Z models were showing anything from 0 to 5" of snow just hours before the event started - we don't usually see that bad of a spread that close to an event. I know there's more to forecasting than picking the right model or following a blend, but this had to be a tough one for the pros and I can see why one would've forecast 1-2" - and been wrong.

GFS Cat 3 Snowicane on the 12Z run today, days 8/9 - it's a lock, lol...

Intensity let up a bit and as of 10:30 am,we have a whole 1/4" and the radar looks weak to our SW, so I think it's time to officially declare this a bust... The 1/4" did bring my seasonal snowfall up to 7.0".