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RU848789

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Everything posted by RU848789

  1. RU848789
    As of 10:00 am it's pouring heavy snow here with 2.3" OTG at 24F. Heading to Elizabeth for about 90 minutes... https://twitter.com/NWSSPC/status/1362413637864878081?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1362413637864878081%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.33andrain.com%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fnwsspc%2Fstatus%2F1362413637864878081%3Fs%3D21
  2. RU848789
    As of 9:00 am, 1.7" OTG at 24F - about 0.8"/hr rates the last 30 min and it looks like the heavy stuff is about to come down...
  3. RU848789
    As of 8:30 am, 1.3" OTG at 23F - only about 0.6"/hr rates the last 30 min, but snow has picked up in the last 5 minutes here. Very pretty out there as I just went for a nice walk, but roads are obviously treacherous with temps so cold.
  4. RU848789
    As of 8 am, 1" OTG at 23F - got 1/2" the past 30 min for 1"/hr rates. If we can keep this up for 4-5 hours, I'll be happy.
  5. RU848789
    Started snowing lightly in Metuchen around 6:40 am and picked up around 7:00 am and we have 1/2" OTG as of 7:30 am. Moderate snow - would like to get into some of that heavier stuff. Temp really dropped from 27 to 23F with the snow sublimation cooling the column.
  6. RU848789
    Snow just started here in Metuchen around 6:40 am with a dusting on the ground already - looks like pixie dust out there. 27F. Lots of reports of people in the Philly area with 2" already, but I hear there's sleet in areas like Glassboro - don't want to see sleet...
  7. RU848789
    Slept 2 hours and woke up, lol. Mt. Holly cut back a little (maybe 1") in some places, but not all on both the map and in the warnings ("4-6 inches with locally higher amounts" now for most). On the flip side, Channel 7 increased their general snowfall for the entire area from 4-8" to 5-9". Sleet is still a significant risk to these snowfall amounts, especially south of 276/195 and SE of the NJ TPK from 195 up to about the Raritan. And of course the 6Z NAM looks great (6-10" for most over both parts), while the RGEM looks anemic (3-5") and the GFS ok (4-7"). In addition, radar is juicier than previously modeled and it looks like accumulating snow will arrive by 6-7 am for most of CNJ, which is an hour or two earlier than expected. Nap time for now.
  8. RU848789
    I don't like the decision, since much of the snow will be falling during the day, perhaps at a pretty good clip, making travel difficult as all snow will accumulate on any untreated surfaces with temps well below 32F for everyone. If it's a 50-50 call, I'd always err on the side of being conservative, probably from spending much of my career being involved in sitewide emergency management for a 5000 person site in Rahway NJ (Merck), as a side job, but an important one. Many people may dismiss this and if it overperforms even a little bit the afternoon rush could be a problem, especially.
  9. RU848789
    All but about 1" of this is on the ground by 7 pm tomorrow. Certainly good for my house and decent for most in the Philly-NYC area. That purple stripe could easily hit NYC too.
  10. RU848789
    Updated maps; watches everywhere except SENJ. Fun times ahead...
  11. RU848789
    33F with very light rain and the reported RH is 92% which gives a wet bulb temp of 31.5F, so freezing rain is not out of the question yet. I did just check and no signs of anything freezing yet.
  12. RU848789
    Almost every model is now showing no ZR for the 95 corridor and even nearby there and less to the NW, too. I'm guessing all the advisories might be cancelled and most of the ice storm warnings converted to advisories for up to 0.1" of ZR, except maybe for the Poconos/Sussex, where they might still get up to 1/4". And I would think everything will be ok just about everywhere by the morning rush hour.
  13. RU848789
    All of the precip in the map below is falling on surfaces that are below 32F and is shown as ZR on the Euro. This would be 0.2-0.4" of ZR for most along and SE of 95, which would be a pretty big deal. Temps except right at the immediate coast never get above 30F. The Euro is showing more QPF than most other models, but if it's right, this is a fairly nasty ZR event, especially with much of the precip falling at night.
  14. RU848789
    I think it would be more likely we might see 0.1-0.3" of QPF as sleet/freezing rain for most.
  15. RU848789
    Woke up at 7 am and took a final measurement of 2.75", as we only got 1/4" since 2:45 am, which looks about right, looking at the radar history since then. Very nice little storm. Brings my seasonal total to 36.0".
  16. RU848789
    Same here - 3" more puts me at 33.25", which is above normal for the season as we both get close to NY's seasonal avg of 28".
  17. RU848789
    As of 2:45 am, we have 2.5" OTG in Metuchen at 28F. Definitely lighter the last hour or so, although we have one more decent band coming through now and then it looks pretty light the rest of the way. We'll see about whether we made 3" in the morning, as it's sleepy time.
  18. RU848789
    As of about 2 am, we have 2.25" OTG at 28F in Metuchen. That's 3/4" the last hour and radar/intensity have let up a bit, but I'd still guess we have 1/4-1/2" per hour snow. Hoping we make it to my 3" prediction for my house, which we should as long as the precip from PA doesn't dry up - it's on the lighter side, but a few hours would do it. Regardless, what a beautiful snowfall - at its height we had about 1"/hr rates for over an hour with very nice, fluffy, dry, but smallish dendrites.
  19. RU848789
    As of about 2 am, we have 2.25" OTG at 28F in Metuchen. That's 3/4" the last hour and radar/intensity have let up a bit, but I'd still guess we have 1/4-1/2" per hour snow. Hoping we make it to my 3" prediction for my house, which we should as long as the precip from PA doesn't dry up - it's on the lighter side, but a few hours would do it.
  20. RU848789
    Just went for a Jebwalk - stunningly gorgeous out there right now in the absolute quiet of the middle of the night with a fresh blanket of white. Up to 1.5" in Metuchen as of 1:00 am, as it's still snowing moderately with nice small/medium dendrites. Seems pretty likely we'll make it to 2.5", but not sure how much more snow we'll get after about 2:30 am. Would love to make 3-4" and could with even 3-4 hours of lighter snow after this band finishes coming through in the next 30 min or so. Not a single station in NJ (or even DE) above 32F, so I assume this is all snow for everyone which is nice for the folks in SNJ.
  21. RU848789
    Snow picked up in intensity significantly the last half hour and we now have moderately sized dendrites that likely will give 15-20: ratios. Up to 1.0" at 12:30, which is a 1"/hr rate over the last 30 min. Temp has dropped to 28F
  22. RU848789
    As of 12:00 am we have 1/2" of pixie dust on the ground here in Metuchen at 30F. Coming down nicely - 6 hours of this gets us 3".
  23. RU848789
    And so it begins. Light snow started around 10:50 pm and we have a light dusting. 30F here in Metuchen.
  24. RU848789
    how much did you get?
  25. RU848789
    As of 3 pm, we have an even 6.0" of snow in Metuchen, which is actually what I predicted, which is kind of a miracle, given what the models looked like yesterday/last night. Snow is falling lightly and mostly over - could pick up another 1/4" or so. Fantastic, beautiful, easy-to-shovel snowfall - just finished shoveling round 3. As I said earlier, don't wait until after the SuperBowl to shovel as everything will freeze solid with temps in the teens by morning!! Still 32F and once the snow started falling in earnest this morning, cooling the column of air, temps were never above 32F. On to Tuesday, Thursday and maybe Sunday - the pattern that keeps on giving - up to 33.3" this winter.
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