RU848789
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Everything posted by RU848789
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Had 1.5" at 4:30 am and just had our best 30 min of the storm and as of 7 am, we're at 2.0". Starting to doubt we get to 3" here (my prediction was 3.2"), as the radar has been much spottier over the last several hours than forecasted and the short term models right now aren't showing more than another inch falling along/SE of 95, if that, especially if mixing reaches 95 later this morning when precip rates are expected to increase, at least for areas NW of 95 and N of 78, where the storm has underperformed significantly with only about 1-2" for much of NWNJ/NEPA/NENJ/NYC. Huge doubts over whether the coastal is going to deliver as much snow/precip as was modeled even a few hours ago. Forecast was good for SNJ and CNJ SE of 95 with 3.5" in South River, 2.5" in Howell and 2.5" in Toms River.
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Just had our best 30 min of the storm and as of 7 am, we're at 2.0". Starting to doubt we get to 3" here (my prediction was 3.2"), as the radar has been much spottier over the last several hours than forecasted and the short term models right now aren't showing more than another inch falling along/SE of 95, if that, especially if mixing reaches 95 later this morning when precip rates are expected to increase, at least for areas NW of 95 and N of 78, where the storm has underperformed significantly with only about 1-2" for much of NWNJ/NEPA/NENJ/NYC. Huge doubts over whether the coastal is going to deliver as much snow/precip as was modeled even a few hours ago. Forecast was good for SNJ and CNJ SE of 95 with 3.5" in South River, 2.5" in Howell and 2.5" in Toms River.
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After a snooze, just checked the radar history and after an hour of nearly nothing, snow picked back up around 2:30 pm and then became moderate around 3:30 pm and I went out in it around 4:30 pm and measured 1.6" with the temp now at 25F. It is really pretty out there with moderately falling beautiful dendrites and nearly no wind. Had a nice little walk in the silent snow. The NWS cut back on snowfall a bit for the 95 corridor from Philly to NYC, down to 3-4" and SE of 95 to 2-3", as per the maps. Not a surprise with a bit less snow falling overnight vs. the forecast and with a mix (and maybe plain rain) probably occurring SE of 95 by 7-9 am and a mix by 9-11 am for 95 (based on a few point/click forecasts I looked at - the AFD wasn't very helpful). When any changeover to non-snow occurs will be critical in whether the 95 corridor gets to 3-4", as we're going to need to get a few hours of at least moderate snowfall to get there after the coastal starts to crank by 6-7 am, according to the discussion. Pretty sure most of the area SE of 95 already has their 2-3" or will by 6-7 am, based on posts I've seen on the weather boards.
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Colonia? Rahway? I worked in Rahway for 31 years, at Merck...
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As of 1 am, we're up to 1.1", so we had about another 1/4" last hour, but the radar has dried up to our SW and it's heading here, so expecting less this next hour, unless that fairly large hole closes up. Still 24F. Probably going to nap for a few hours...
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Had some weird PC crap going on, lol...deleted the dups...
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Not here - that hole is a hole in Metuchen - barely a flurry now and it looks like it could kill most of an hour for me.
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Welcome aboard! And let's get this man a red tag! And since you're here, how much QPF do you think the 95 corridor from, say Edison (I know, just outside of your CWA, but close and where I live, lol), to NYC will be losing to sleet/ZR/rain. Hoping the NAM is overdone with the ZR and we stay snow longer, but we'll see I guess. Appreciate the work the NWS does, especially PHI and OKX, as I'm right on the border.
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As of 1 am, we're up to 1.1", so we had about another 1/4" last hour, but the radar has dried up to our SW and it's heading here, so expecting less this next hour, unless that fairly large hole closes up. Still 24F. Probably going to nap for a few hours...
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Finally getting a decent band the last 10 minutes with heavier snowfall and bigger dendrites; looks like the band might last another 20 minutes, but hard to predict that stuff.
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And as of midnight we're up to 0.9", so another 1/4" or so in the last hour. Temp is down to 24F. Snowfall intensity remains a bit more than light, but not quite moderate with small, fine flakes, indicating we're not getting the best snow growth, with small dendrites/rods falling, so ratios are probably close to 10:1 if I had to guess. Assuming we stay at 1/4" per hour overnight, we'd likely have about 2.5" by 6 am, which is when the coastal low is supposed to be taking over and the models (and mets) are saying intensity will increase, but also bring in more warm air aloft, probably changing our precip to sleet or freezing rain or plain rain by maybe 10 am - but if we can get 3-4 hours of 1/2" per hour snowfall (moderate rate), we could add another 2" to get to around 4". We'll see. Interesting that Lee Goldberg has essentially the NJ TPK from Trenton to Ft. Lee as the 3" line with 3-5" NW of that line and 1-3" SE of it.
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And as of midnight we're up to 0.9", so another 1/4" or so in the last hour. Temp is down to 24F. Snowfall intensity remains a bit more than light, but not quite moderate with small, fine flakes, indicating we're not getting the best snow growth, with small dendrites/rods falling, so ratios are probably close to 10:1 if I had to guess. Assuming we stay at 1/4" per hour overnight, we'd likely have about 2.5" by 6 am, which is when the coastal low is supposed to be taking over and the models (and mets) are saying intensity will increase, but also bring in more warm air aloft, probably changing our precip to sleet or freezing rain or plain rain by maybe 10 am - but if we can get 3-4 hours of 1/2" per hour snowfall (moderate rate), we could add another 2" to get to around 4". We'll see. Interesting that Lee Goldberg has essentially the NJ TPK from Trenton to Ft. Lee as the 3" line with 3-5" NW of that line and 1-3" SE of it.
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As of 11 pm, we're up to about 5/8" as another 1/4" fell the past hour. It's still 25F, but the snow has increased in intensity the last 10 minutes and it looks like that will continue for awhile, so hopefully we'll start doing better than 1/4" per hour.
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As of 11 pm, we're up to about 5/8" as another 1/4" fell the past hour. It's still 25F, but the snow has increased in intensity the last 10 minutes and it looks like that will continue for awhile, so hopefully we'll start doing better than 1/4" per hour.
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Storm seriously overperforming for DC/Balt as warnings were just issued for 4-6" of snow as 4" is already on the ground in the DC area and 3" in Baltimore. Doesn't guarantee anything here, but it's also overperforming in the Philly/SNJ area, so there's a decent chance of CNJ/NNJ getting at least to the 2-4/3-5" forecast amounts (and maybe the high ends of those or beyond). https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=PHI&wwa=winter%20storm%20warning
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As of 10 pm, we're all the way up to 3/8", so 1/4" the past hour and down to 25F. Obviously, still just snowing lightly, but some better returns are not far away.
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As of 10 pm, we're all the way up to 3/8", so 1/4" the past hour and down to 25F. Obviously, still just snowing lightly, but some better returns are not far away.
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Clearly, they only see a bit of ZR occurring... Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 933 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2024 NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 930 PM update.... No significant changes to the forecast as of 930PM. Snow overspreading the region as expected with transition to ice happening in southernmost zones presently. Tweaked the wording for the WSW to give a bit more range in better agreement with our existing forecast, and spread a bit more ice further north and west into PA and central/northern NJ, but these are minor adjustments since a light icing on top of plowed, treated roads should cause little additional issue... a crust on top of the snow otherwise.
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The ZR scares me if that verifies, even if a fair amount of the ZR doesn't accrete, plus much of us along 95 would be losing 3" or more of snow to ZR - I want it all as snow, at 15:!, lol.
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As of 9 pm, we have a heavy dusting, i.e., about 1/8" of absolute pixie dust, fine grained snow, on all surfaces at 26F.
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As of 9 pm, we have a heavy dusting, i.e., about 1/8" of absolute pixie dust, fine grained snow, on all surfaces at 26F.
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That's what I said!
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People in the Philly burbs already reporting 1.5-2" as of 8:30 pm (Philly forum) and 0.5" in Philly already. Not sure if early, great band or storm overperforming...
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2.1" already?! That bodes well for the storm to overperform for the Philly/SNJ area and hopefully up through the rest of NJ/NYC. No model had the Philly area over 1" as of even 10 pm, let alone 8:30 pm or so.
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Started snowing lightly here around 8:15 pm and we already have a dusting on everything at 26F...
