RU848789

Sea surface temps are pretty marginal N of NC, though, so doubt we'll see a strong storm anywhere near us (doesn't mean we can't have very heavy rains though, with the right track - just talking winds/coastal flooding perspective). Also, not sure how "tropical" this system will really be.

Two camps in the 0Z suite. Camp 1 shows about 2-4" of rain for most of the Philly-NYC corridor (and points within 50-75 miles of 95) on the GFS and NAM with the low coming right up along the coast, while camp 2 has 1/2-1" of rain on the Euro (which was showing 2-4" of rain for the area in its previous two runs) UK, and CMC (less well inland, with the 1" amounts at the coast) with the track 100+ miles offshore, for what it's worth. More tracking on tap...

Never sleep on a Miller A, lol. It was written off as a major snowstorm 2 days before it hit, with most solutions showing the storm going out to sea, some missing completely and some showing 1-2" for the 95 corridor and a few to several inches for coastal NJ and LI and SE New England, whereas 3-4 days before the event there was absolute model mayhem with complete misses and blizzards (especially on the Euro). And then the epic 12/25 0Z runs all showed a huge snowstorm, about 36 hours before the event started. Thread below. I was in Charlotte visiting family on Christmas Eve night after everyone went to sleep causally surfing the web and watching the model runs and every model showed a bomb for our area. Best Christmas present I could get, lol. I even convinced my wife and then 16 year old son that we should leave Charlotte after Christmas dinner so we could be home for the blizzard and we left around 7 pm getting caught in the snow a bit for the first 3-4 hours of the drive with several inches on even the interstates, but traffic was light and we outran the snow by about Durham and the rest of the ride was fine. I got a couple of hours of sleep, played soccer the morning of 12/26, as usual for a Sunday, then sat back and enjoyed an incredible storm. Craig Allen had this to say after seeing the 0Z suite that night: "Good data or bad, garbage in/garbage out, wish for what you do or do not want, no matter what has been said before, from feast to famine to feast....the most amazing thing has happened tonight. EVERY SINGLE COMPUTER MODEL IS NOW IN LINE FOR A MAJOR SNOWSTORM/PSBL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LATE SUN INTO SUN NGT. NEVER IN 35+ YEARS OF DOING THIS HAVE I SEEN SUCH CHAOS LEADING UP TO A SOLUTION LIKE THIS."

Well, I'm liking the fact that all 4 major global models at 0Z are at least now showing a pretty significant to major coastal storm this weekend (mostly Saturday late morning through the evening for the Philly-NYC region), but only one of them is showing significant snowfall. The GFS shows a snow to rain storm with significant snowfall along and NW of 95, while the UK shows a monsoon of a rainstorm with 1-3" of rain (close to 1" well NW to almost 3" near the coast), and the Euro and CMC show a major storm a couple hundred miles off the coast, with just some modest rains near the coast, but huge rains offshore (1-2"), so the precip is certainly there with all 4 models. But we're about 5 days out and obviously much can change between now and the event, especially with the main players being well offshore of the NA continent. As many have said with borderline antecedent temps this is a serious "thread the needle" scenario, so a major snowstorm is unlikely, but we all know powerful storms like this can essentially "generate" their own cold air via dynamic cooling with heavy precip rates and sometimes turn a rainstorm into a pastebomb of a snowstorm. So, nobody needs to buy milk and bread yet (or a canoe), but this one is worth tracking and maybe it's our time to get lucky...or not. The one thing that's starting to look likely is the potential for heavy surf and possibly minor tidal flooding (fortunately it won't be a full moon).

that time of year kids...

Hey Philly folks - is there anywhere to get archived forecasts (and snowmaps) from the various Philly TV stations for this past storm? Were they predicting 6-8" for Philly? I know the NWS was estimating 4-6" for Philly, so just curious. Thanks.

bump again - not sure why not pinned...

Agree with the LOL. I once spent about 15 minutes talking meteorology with him and it was clear that, while he has a met degree (from Kean), his depth of knowledge of complex meteorological science is limited, as he admitted when I asked him some probing technical questions (I wasn't trying to trip him up - was hoping he could give me some insight into the Arrhenius relationship between atmospheric temperature, energy and moisture content and he said he's not really a "science" guy, but was more interested in forecasting). Nice guy, but no Walt Drag.

Thanks, wasn't familiar with that mode - maybe they should note it's in that mode on the radar page. Also, I understand the concept of scanning more slowly to better detect very light precip, but I still don't understand why they'd show "negative" dBZ returns - for Mt. Holly right now, there are what appear to be thin brown bands of "non-precip" (several of which are nowhere near Hillsborough, so it's not that). http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/239/ Yes, I know and appreciate that - is there any downside to permanently pinning? There have been multiple times there were storms in other regions and many of the graphics in this thread pertain to much larger areas than NYC Metro, so I find it annoying to have to hunt a few pages for this thread. Just wondering...

Maybe a dumb question, but on this radar and the standard NWS radar sites, all of a sudden I'm seeing "non-precip" shown, whatever that is (negative dBZ's in brown/grey mostly), which makes it hard to see the actual blues and greens (and more) denoting actual precip. Anyone know why that is the case? http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=dix&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no Also, IMO this thread out to be pinned in perpetuity and not allowed to slide off the first page, as it's a great thread regardless of whether or not we have an active storm.

I usually just rely on y'all for posting model graphics, since I'm not that well versed in searching through e-wall and getting the info on my own, plus I hate wasting my time if someone else has done something (thanks!). However, occasionally, I like to look at a model ru nor two on my own and right now, if I go to the e-wall and go to the 0000UTC Models area (0Z) and then click on, say, the NAM at 06 hours, the time stamp appears to be for last night's (1/21) 0Z NAM (not the current one or 1/22), whereas if I click on the 18Z NAM that ran earlier today, the time stamp (1/21 intializing at 1800) appears correct. Am I doing something wrong? Is there a better source than the PSU e-wall? Gracias...

Thanks, I found the radar loops (linked), but am now wondering if there is any way to control the speed/timing of them or to pause them and capture screen shots and the like. It appears as if all one can see is a very fast 24 hour loop that can't be stopped. http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=EWR&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&type=TR0&zoommode=pan&map.x=400&map.y=240&centerx=400&centery=240&prevzoom=zoom&num=1&delay=100&scale=1&showlabels=1&smooth=0&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0

Just curious - anyone know where I could find a radar loop of the heavy rainfall period from Mt. Holly and/or Upton? I've seen the radar totals, but not any loops. Thanks.

Question: I always thought these were the times the model output started coming out, not when they started running. I always thought the 0Z suite, for example, all started running with 0Z, or 7 pm EST, data inputs and that the models took varying times to run, hence producing different output times. Can anyone confirm whether that's right or wrong? If it's wrong, then why call them all the 0Z suite, then?

Pinnage please! (then delete this post to unclutter the thread)...