SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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Weather looks good after tomorrow. Weekend looks great. I don't see any major heat for now. Temperatures will probably stay close to seasonable levels averaged out. 3rd week of May could be cooler though.
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May obs/discussion thread - Welcome to Severe Season!!
SnoSki14 replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
Models want to hang onto the omega blocking longer today. Probably closer to seasonal vs torch -
May obs/discussion thread - Welcome to Severe Season!!
SnoSki14 replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
Could be a back and forth type deal too. Either way it should be a lot warmer. We're getting closer to that solar max after all. -
It takes a lot for us to see a cool month. We'd need the omega block or any extreme block to last most of the month. We've also seen a big swing where the west is cool & we're very warm since 2015. Parts of CA have seen top 5 record cold months.
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That's not that unusual. They can get snow well into May
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Don't doubt a warmup but with elevated heights from lingering block over western Canada, I could see a cooler trend develop as we get closer.
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Intensifying low coming up the coast so precip will fill in quickly. Subtropical look with bands that'll come from the southeast as low pulls up.
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HRRR really slams parts of C/N NJ over next few hrs. 2"+ amounts on top of what's already fallen
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I was gonna say this has a tropical feel to it. The surface low is really impressive down south too
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Ok this will deliver for everyone. Nice pocket of rain now and we still have the strong pocket associated with the surface low
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Why do you assume it'll be an east based Nino? Warming typically starts east and propagates westward. Monthlies show this happening by the fall. Strong eastern warming can collapse very quickly.
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Models sort of all over the place with rain amounts today. I do wonder if we'll be dry slotted with low going right over us with heavy rains west & east of us. Very chilly first few days of May. GFS has highs in the 40s on Wednesday with graupel likely
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The flowers have been out for a couple weeks already Very early leafout & bloom this year
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We need this during hurricane season A few more inches and our yearly deficits will be gone.
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I love it and the prolonged wet weather is much needed without the flooding risks.
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Yeah if we were having sustained 90s throughout April then that would be an extreme problem. The weather has been perfectly fine and mostly seasonable. We'll even avoid those chilly late April to early May rainy 40s to low 50s type days.
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You get different outcomes by late April/May. Closed low with blocking to the NE will cause a lot of rain. Fully anticipate models to ramp up totals Big signal from EPS
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I wonder what that means for late week into the weekend.
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Nice rain event. Hopefully GFS is right with the rains next 7-10 days as we're running a bit of a deficit this year.
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But it is theoretically possible then. This April is averaging 59 and we've had Mays average below 60. We would need a May 2005 though which is highly unlikely
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Looks like weeklies/monthlies actually shows a BN May after a record warm April. Has May ever had a lower average temperature than April?
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There's no indication of a super nino. I doubt it goes beyond moderate
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We're having the warmest April ever so it's fine. I also don't think it'll be that bad, we'll probably still have an above normal May.
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I think we're running behind some of the strongest Ninos. Although it's not out of the question I would go with moderate to moderate-high for now
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It'll be late March before you know it. Our warm records have really been accelerating. We might have also shot our warm load early. EPS has a substantial cool down for late April into May
