SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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The speed of Lee is a major reason why. The slower it moves the more time for ridging to build to its northeast.
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The Euro would have some significant coastal impacts. Even though it won't be strong, probably 75-90mph, it'll be a very large system with tons of wave/erosion & surge potential.
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I remember those days. The fact more people aren't alarmed we're still getting lows in the upper 60s & 70s in mid September is jarring.
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Yeah because I want a hurricane to wreck my house.
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Coastal impacts may be quite extensive purely due to its massive size (likely double from now) once it gets here. Those impacts would increase big time if there is a hook west.
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Quite strong too with baroclinic boost so could have some hybrid characteristics. Wind field will likely be massive SSTs would also be warmer the further south it hooks as well delaying weakening.
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The strength of that Wed shortwave and how quickly it lifts out plus the speed of Lee are all major factors. If the shortwave is weaker, lifts out faster and Lee is slower moving then it'll get hooked pretty far west. I guess that's your best case scenario if you want a good hit.
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Sometimes models latch onto something and trend in that direction for better or worse. We see this often in the winter where a seemingly favorable solution turns to crap as we get closer. Need the Euro to resemble something like yesterday though
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Nice weenie cane for NYC on the GFS
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We'll see if the Euro was onto something. GFS has another major threat about a week later. The tropics are really buzzing. Super Nino says what?
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Not really seeing that big autumnal front just yet. Probably won't happen til October. Nino Octobers are typically cooler than usual
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What a joke
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Oh good maybe my region will get more than 2" this winter. The winter was so bad that even normies recognized the lack of snowfall and still mention today how last winter it barely snowed. Given people's very short memories regarding weather events, that's pretty telling.
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That adds up to what the Euro OP was doing. Probably too early to count out eastern SNE just yet. Bottom line is that a slower moving Lee is a bigger threat. I think just as many are ready to discount any possibility of a threat as those on social media hyping it up. Quite fascinating really Just to stay on this hype train. How strong do you think it could be realistically. I'd imagine there would be some baroclinic assist.
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He's an expert on tweet discovery
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I can see that. The less interaction with the first trough the more likely this can curve NW towards the coast.
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The most likely scenario is it gets caught up in the first trough and hits eastern Canada. That's where the ensembles and most op runs stand and that's what I'm going with.
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Disagree, the Euro as shown makes sense. Trough quickly swings through, doesn't pick up Lee and ridging rapidly rebuilds causing the storm to move NW It helps how slow Lee is moving. Other models show enough interaction with that first trough to swing it NNE.
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Very strong gusts with this storm. Hail core is just to my east
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Some very heavy rainfall possible with this tropical like air mass
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Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23
SnoSki14 replied to BxEngine's topic in New York City Metro
Are you surprised given the endless barrage of conspiracy theories on socials -
Mid-late next week will feel cold despite near normal temperatures. And yes despite the record heat it still doesn't have the same punch as June through mid August due to those lower angles.
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The SSTs helped it rapidly intensify but it's never enough to overcome the shear which is clearly having an effect this morning.
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Not sure why you'd be rooting for a cane hit, it's not like a snowstorm. It would be fun for like 2hrs and then you'd have to worry about your house floating away and having to dodge massive trees & power lines. Give me that massive swell action and I'm good.
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Looks very wet/active over the next week even without potential PRE impacts from Lee
