SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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So ensembles decided that fall is indeed coming now?
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Quite the reversal on the ensembles after the 8-9th now from a couple days ago. All of these competing influences seem to be screwing with the models.
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But does it have any legitimacy or is it the equivalent of its winter storm weenie runs.
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So if things played out moving forward it would basically ensure another warm, snowless winter.. can't say I'm surprised anymore.
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Not to sound alarmist but at this point voting for certain political parties really is a choice between life & death for many. That being said even the anti-climate deniers aren't doing nearly enough to address the ongoing climate change acceleration.
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Yeah it's insane. So much for that super Nino pattern. GFS looks like a raging Nina
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Winter 2023-2024
SnoSki14 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
We're seeing Nina like conditions to start October...not exactly promising. But who knows maybe we'll luck out and get a Nina December followed by a Nino Jan/Feb. Many competing factors so an outcome like that wouldn't be surprising. -
It's an October Forky pattern. No fall weather in sight. Huge trough out west with big ridge in the east. We may not even be done with tropical threats if that's the case.
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Endless summer starts in October. Looks nothing like a strong Nino pattern
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So much for the strong to severe Nino that Snowman can't stop talking about. We're clearly getting dual forcing here and yeah we're sort of lucking into a cooler 2nd half Sept pattern because everything else is blowtorching.
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It doesn't seem like we got a lot of rain because it was so stretched out but most places got 1.5-2+ so not too shabby. And there's more to come too
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Radar doesn't look so great for the region but showers could develop later.
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Euro trending more unsettled too especially later this week (Fri-Sat). Another rainy weekend perhaps? Very strong blocking high to our north continues so wouldn't be surprised to see a much more pessimistic forecast with continued strong onshore flow.
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Yes very latter October feel
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We'll get a good hit with the remnant low tomorrow, probably a lot more than today.
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We'll sort of be artificially cool despite a very warm pattern aloft because of how the highs are setting up. Tons of onshore flow, precip & clouds will keep highs several degrees below normal. But this is not a fall pattern. Lows aren't even sniffing 40s anywhere anytime soon.
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GFS is junk
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I think there's likely to be two rounds of rain with more steady stuff tomorrow and some convective potential with the remnants. Models are likely way too fast spinning this down. Sunday could easily overperform
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The system is very hybrid like. Although there is a tropical core the system is stretched out like a subtropical system with tons of energy well to the NE. That energy is what will give us the rain/wind impacts up here. Just look at the HRRR
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You're very annoying. It's going to rain tomorrow. There's massive feeder bands developing and will move north.
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Strong pressure gradient and storm is stronger than forecast. Should be a very windy Saturday
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The bar is very low indeed. Getting to double digits would be massive compared to last season. Hoping we get something like 15/16 with at least one biggie despite an overall warm winter.
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I think it'll be less impactful and more dreadful to deal with. Rainfall totals look benign and outside of immediate coastal impacts there shouldn't be too much to deal with wind wise. Think of it as an early fall coastal storm with very poor timing sadly
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That was a solid 7+ days of record setting temperatures that will skew the month well above normal (+2) against the warmer averages. And in the city lows are still struggling to drop below 60 so yes its been a very warm stretch. A few cooler days won't change that.
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There will likely be a tropical connection too so I agree on locally much higher amounts. I think we need another full day of model runs before we know exactly what will happen.
