SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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It's the only month that averages normal to BN.
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Not optimistic at all. Looks like the same garbage we've seen for years now. Pacific jet on steroids. Expect 4 months of March essentially so 40s & 50s for highs and lows near freezing with lots of clouds & rain. Unless the Pacific changes it's going to be the same shitty Nina like winter pattern. No amount of Atlantic blocking is going to make a difference. Bluewave is right on the money as always.
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Euro/GFS op shows how Atlantic blocking doesn't mean squat when the Pacific is trash. I expect little to no snows in December. Pattern looks like garbage The -PDO is a death sentence here
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Safe to say it won't be a Dec 2015 style torch.
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Because?
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Not surprising. Most of the country has been mild and very dry to boot. Only the northeast has had a cooler anomaly this month but we've just had our rainiest event in weeks. Was very dry before that.
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That's the biggest factor. Winters in the east have sucked because of a powerful Pacific jet and western trough Doesn't matter if the AO/NAO are negative if not severely negative if the Pacific is garbage. You just get colder rainstorms.
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Highs were in the 20s on Thanksgiving several years back. The city is still struggling to hit freezing
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They'll fall below freezing this weekend.
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I think the only time people are ok with wintry weather is during the holidays otherwise 90% of people would welcome another warm, snow-free winter. However there are negative side-effects of a warm winter primarily bugs & diseases and yes impacts to snow favored industries. Personally the older I get the more I'm ok with what we got last winter. No travel headaches, low heating bills, no icy conditions, don't have to shovel or deal with plows, etc.
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It's highly doubtful we see a blowtorch December like past strong Nino winters due to the Nina influence, which skews colder for December.
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We've already had several 20s in the suburbs, right now it's 29F. It really takes a lot to get the city down to freezing.
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The MJO response looks very muted though. It mostly hangs in the circle. Also not sure what the response of those phases in a Nino for Dec mean. It may not mean much given a mixed Nina/Nino response. It's going to be a nightmare for models that's for sure.
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No it's not bad but things could get pushed back again so I'm very weary of any long range outlook
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GFS has a massive cold bias
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I feel like those days are past us with the rapid warming we've been seeing. Even strong blocking doesn't do much anymore due to its unfavorable location. That and the shrinking polar vortex makes cold less likely. The 15/16 Nino was our tipping point
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Actually most (public) would be happy with another warm, snow-free winter.
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Yeah I'll need to see more ensemble support. OP runs are extremely fickle given the chaotic pattern we're in. For example they were way too warm for this current warmup period. Of course a warm-up wouldn't be shocking by any means.
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Euro has been caving hard. It might be warm one day and it's not very warm at all.
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Gfs op is a joke. The flipping is insane. Hard disagree. Very strong ensemble support that last week of November will be very cool. However I do think we warm up once December begins and there's ensemble support for that too.
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Euro does not agree
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On a lonely island by itself.
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Too much of a Nina influence this time
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If you think the -PDO and Nina background state won't play a major role then you'll be very disappointed. Unless those elements change then I expect another lackluster eastern winter but hopefully it'll be more than 2" of snow in NYC...low bar
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EPS has some cool air spilling east around Thanksgiving but for the most part it's cold west, mild east like the past 8+ years. The Nina background state looks permanent
