SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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Bluewave ain't encouraged and neither am I. Trough out west is a killer
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Pacific isn't good so you really want the 4th system to trend stronger, which in turn will lead to a better 50/50 for the following storm so it's not an inland runner. I would be surprised if this worked out for us. Pattern is not very good for snow. New England is in a much better spot. Still the key will be that 4th system. Perhaps the poor Pacific will allow that one to keep amplifying
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That's not a bad look
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The storm that kicked off 2 decades of amazingly snowy seasons and killed the rut of those rough late 90s winters.
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Cold is dumping west and that's a smoothed out look. Probably would see more ridging in the east.
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Which means that day when he finally forecasts snow, it's definitely going to snow.
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So zero snow this year? And it's not just us, it's the entire CONUS
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You know its bad when so far this winter is starting out much worse than last year at this time (temp wise). And we had like 2" last winter.
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I'm not that mad if this ends up being another non-winter. There's a lot of positives to a warm winter. I just wish it wasn't so rainy. February will be the month to watch. Pacific looks like trash before that.
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Just compare each decade with previous decades and you'll get your answer. Warming has been steady if not accelerating and though cold/snowy periods still occur their frequency has diminished greatly. As things warm the frequency of wetter years will also go up. And though dry periods will occur, our region as a whole will see average rainfall totals go up.
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And yet some will say it's not as bad because it's not Dec 15. Well +5 against the highest normals is terrible. But I guess you could be +10 or better like folks further west
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Totally has nothing to do with AGW though. Just bad luck
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Most El Ninos don't really kick off winter until late Jan and Feb so that's probably our best shot this year. I think 15-20" could be reasonable as it wouldn't take much. The SSW timing would align well with Nino climo too given its lag time.
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At this point a single warning event would be a miracle. It's crazy that we're going on 2 years without one. Makes me lucky to be alive during the snowy 2000s & 2010s.
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Snow pack? Most would be lucky to see a snowstorm
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Nino climo with a SSW early Jan would be significant for late Jan and Feb. Would be nice to score something in the Jan 1-10 period too.
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Looks like January will open BN with snow opportunities followed by a Jan thaw mid month and then Nino climo really kicks off late Jan into Feb. CFS weeklies depict this very well.
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?
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In the 2000s we used to have highs in the teens for December, now getting below freezing in the city at night is an achievement.
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Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23
SnoSki14 replied to BxEngine's topic in New York City Metro
We really are just frogs slowly boiling Humanity is so f*cked -
I'll sign up for that. Though even my area got side swiped at times. The best action was 20+ miles south of me.
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Good chance we get decent snows in January. Split flow pattern. Plenty of cold for snow and favorable climo. Remember you don't need arctic cold for snow. I know everyone's jaded but the pattern isn't bad at all. People act like a giant ridge is forecast And appreciate Snowman19 graduating from the weenie emoji. Big step for him
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Need a few more days of this though. We've seen things get pushed back far too often
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That's workable in January for sure when climo helps.
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And we're the cooler region this month. The warmth out west (Midwest, plains) has been ridiculous
