SnoSki14
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Everything posted by SnoSki14
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Sometimes models latch onto something and trend in that direction for better or worse. We see this often in the winter where a seemingly favorable solution turns to crap as we get closer. Need the Euro to resemble something like yesterday though
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Nice weenie cane for NYC on the GFS
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We'll see if the Euro was onto something. GFS has another major threat about a week later. The tropics are really buzzing. Super Nino says what?
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Not really seeing that big autumnal front just yet. Probably won't happen til October. Nino Octobers are typically cooler than usual
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What a joke
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Oh good maybe my region will get more than 2" this winter. The winter was so bad that even normies recognized the lack of snowfall and still mention today how last winter it barely snowed. Given people's very short memories regarding weather events, that's pretty telling.
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That adds up to what the Euro OP was doing. Probably too early to count out eastern SNE just yet. Bottom line is that a slower moving Lee is a bigger threat. I think just as many are ready to discount any possibility of a threat as those on social media hyping it up. Quite fascinating really Just to stay on this hype train. How strong do you think it could be realistically. I'd imagine there would be some baroclinic assist.
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He's an expert on tweet discovery
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I can see that. The less interaction with the first trough the more likely this can curve NW towards the coast.
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The most likely scenario is it gets caught up in the first trough and hits eastern Canada. That's where the ensembles and most op runs stand and that's what I'm going with.
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Disagree, the Euro as shown makes sense. Trough quickly swings through, doesn't pick up Lee and ridging rapidly rebuilds causing the storm to move NW It helps how slow Lee is moving. Other models show enough interaction with that first trough to swing it NNE.
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Very strong gusts with this storm. Hail core is just to my east
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Some very heavy rainfall possible with this tropical like air mass
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Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23
SnoSki14 replied to BxEngine's topic in New York City Metro
Are you surprised given the endless barrage of conspiracy theories on socials -
Mid-late next week will feel cold despite near normal temperatures. And yes despite the record heat it still doesn't have the same punch as June through mid August due to those lower angles.
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The SSTs helped it rapidly intensify but it's never enough to overcome the shear which is clearly having an effect this morning.
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Not sure why you'd be rooting for a cane hit, it's not like a snowstorm. It would be fun for like 2hrs and then you'd have to worry about your house floating away and having to dodge massive trees & power lines. Give me that massive swell action and I'm good.
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Looks very wet/active over the next week even without potential PRE impacts from Lee
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This will be ticking west. Anyone counting this out now is nuts. I'm seeing stronger SE Canada ridging and a stronger Midwest trough. You only need a couple hundred miles of adjustments which is easily attainable well over a week out.
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Pretty big westward shift with latest GEFS
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It was only a matter of time before a major cane was integrated into the strong WAR/record SST pattern. Anyone thinking this will harmlessly recurve needs to reevaluate that strategy
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At the very least this one should be a swell producer for the ages. Looks like a monstrously huge system nearby
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This is going further west than that for sure. Big blocking high develops over SE Canada. The question is how far west it gets before it turns north as it'll likely head N or NNE beyond that. GFS ticked west too
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So much for a strong Nino suppressing activity. Wind shear levels look like a Nina out in the Atlantic
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110+ or bust
