SnoSki14

I'm not seeing anything remotely close to the heat we've seen in July though, looks like more typical mid August heat.

Warm Septembers are awesome, it might be my favorite beach month because all the tourists are gone, kids back in school, etc. And warm in September normally doesn't mean torrid summer heat plus a much weaker sun angle.

The good news is that the ice hasn't been able to beat the last record low from 7 years ago. Which could mean an ice free summer Arctic probably won't happen until the end of the 21st century.

AN forever

I stopped giving a rats ass about those people, they're as repugnant as anti-vaxxers or flat-earthers though having said trolls lead gov't is quite terrifying. Still even the most scientifically scholared gov'ts don't mind turning their back on what they know to be true. So at this point it's a big waiting game. Will we innovate ourselves out of GW or will GW shut us down permanently.

I didn't think the blocking would go away. This pattern's stuck for the long haul with some shifting every now & then.

I don't know, it seems the closer we get the more blocking starts to show up. The current warming, ice melt could even help enhance blocking.

These climate agenda arguments are so baffling to me, there's literally hard data from numerous sources/satellites that goes back decades to hundreds of years. But I guess in an age where anti-vaxxers and flat-earthers exist we shouldn't be too surprised. Regardless, the climate will do what science intended whether you choose to remain ignorant or not. I kid you not there were tweets where people tried to dispute climate change by stating it snowed in Alberta last June. But mention record heat in Alaska/Europe happening now and you won't hear a peep.

And you lost. Upcoming pattern looks brutal for Arctic, and if this pattern lasts through the summer like I think it will, then 2012 could go down the tubes.

The upcoming pattern is an absolute ice destroyer, massive blocking high over the Arctic. Extent will plummet late June into July. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html

The ice has gotten battered due to a very unfavorable May/June, and the pattern is only projected to get worse as renewed blocking develops. I expect a cliff dive in sea ice next couple weeks.

What's with all the dry outlooks, I haven't seen anything thus far that would lead to that outcome.

I think a near Cat 5 at the FL panhandle will win the prize this year.

Huge heat/ridge signal showing up for early October so you're not wrong.

I think that's it for 90s, Flo's influence will mitigate the ridge effects and things turn cooler after she exits. Even if ridging returns afterwards, 90s become very unlikely after September 20.

Makes sense with the heat dome in the middle/inter-mountain west section of the US. Mid-Atlantic may once again get the brunt of it.

He'll score big at times but he's also incredibly biased. He will often offer the cold & snow option for the east coast even in years that don't warrant it because he knows that'll get people to buy into his stuff. He does the same during hurricane season.

PD II is one unique way to get a big storm in this coming pattern. There's definitely support building from the 27-30th for a big overrunning storm. +NAO/-PNA but with a strongly -EPO/WPO. Could be interesting.

The CFS is a complete joke and should be disbanded immediately, it bit the bullet on November and the model, not the weather will burn in flames next month.

Nice storm signal next Saturday, strong east based block forces low to form further SE and rapidly intensify. The weather pattern has been so boring that even a coastal rainstorm would be nice.

It's a very mild, Pacific dominated pattern as far as I can see. Blocking completely disappears. I see 60s to start December.

Yes, 60s possible.

I agree it's sad and terrifying how easily people fall for anything whether it be a fake news article or a weather forecast. There's so much misinformation out there and nobody cares to check the sources.

That looks very Nina to me, classic N-S gradient.

This probably would be a top 5 start to winter if the Nina was weaker or cold neutral. Getting a decent Pacific is going to be a struggle this winter.