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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Models now trending away from the late October cool down despite a building PNA and -NAO/AO. Big cold dump out west struggles to make it here as weak SE ridge builds. Wouldn't be a terrible pattern for the winter though.
  2. SnoSki14
    Looks like a Nina pattern, definite gradient type look as well. Wouldn't be surprised to see those heights get squished out east if the blocking is strong enough. Warmth may be confined from Mid-Atlantic south.
  3. SnoSki14
    I'll admit the unpredictability is kinda fun.
  4. SnoSki14
    GFS has looked better than the Euro lately in terms of the overall pattern. Euro keeps popping these anomalous eastern ridges in the face of strong blocking, a forecast +PNA and a developing -EPO.
  5. SnoSki14
    Tell that to every pro/amateur forecaster and all private weather services.
  6. SnoSki14
    Given the developing -EPO and Atlantic blocking, November might actually turn out quite cold & dare I say snowy.
  7. SnoSki14
    Bc you know I'm right.
  8. SnoSki14
    I'm done playing the guessing game. We're getting never before seen configurations and past analogs are becoming less relevant. Just look at the disastrous winter forecasts of last year. I guess based on what I've seen thus far, a Nina pattern with spurts of Atlantic blocking make the most sense but who knows at this point.
  9. SnoSki14
    Really impressive system regardless of what happens. The HRRR has the secondary going from around 1000mbs to 975mb in less than 12 hrs, that's bombogenesis in half the time required. The low pressure would also set records in New England for October.
  10. SnoSki14
    Models/ensembles relax the strong Nina type pattern late October so we should see cooler air masses brush by us. The mean trough still looks to be west of us so it should be an active though not cold pattern.
  11. SnoSki14
    The EPS out to 10 days doesn't show that at all. It has the mean trough in the lakes.
  12. SnoSki14
    They both could be AN, def Oct. Also not sold on a big trough in the east just yet, I see plenty of WAR resistance with a mean trough near the lakes. Would be an active pattern but mostly mild or near normal averaged out.
  13. SnoSki14
    Holy crap with that block in fantasy range on 12z GFS. Would make for a crazy end to October/early November.
  14. SnoSki14
    So far I see a good consensus of a 2"+ widespread rainfall total with 3"+ isolated spots. Would be a nice way to end the dry spell.
  15. SnoSki14
    NAM went nuts with this, from 1000s to 960s mbs in like 12 hrs or so. Still looks like a Gusty rainstorm for us though with much bigger impacts out east. Any potential for a sting jet as it heads out? Could definitely see Thursday overperform on winds if the stronger guidance is correct.
  16. SnoSki14
    The nonstop Western troughiness stops temporarily. Halloween week could be on the cooler side.
  17. SnoSki14
    I buy this, it's a progressive pattern and the Euro has been far too slow/west lately...see TS Melissa.
  18. SnoSki14
    It's a nice little system but nothing too crazy until eastern CNE/NNE. Still it's a decent rain event with some gusty winds. I don't see any blocking so this thing should be speeding through quickly.
  19. SnoSki14
    Don is showing the reality that the upcoming winter will likely be warm. A warm, dry Oct/Nov is 2001/2011 in a nutshell and it's been a while since we had a truly warm, snowless winter. Even the past few warm winters weren't that bad in the snowfall department. I for one wouldn't mind a nice, warm snow free winter. No traffic headaches, no shoveling/ice issues, 60s during the day, sounds pretty good imo.
  20. SnoSki14
    That's all we get nowadays, weeks of warmth to record warm with a couple days of cool mixed in. Today's Euro really pumps the ridge up but the strongest anomalies are to the N & W, we get undercut somewhat. However I have a feeling this will change and we'll get the brunt of the heat. Widespread 80s for 2-3 days look likely. This current pattern would be really ugly in the winter. The -NAO blocking is gone and there's a relentless Pac Jet present. Better hope that changes by Dec/Jan.
  21. SnoSki14
    Wow the EPS has a massive torch for us in about 9-10 days. That's easily 80s, maybe even a stray 90F in there. Downright scary how often these record breaking torches are showing up.
  22. SnoSki14
    If there's better luck than last year then it'll work out but you're playing with fire there. And I guess the Modoki Nino is pretty much useless given the Nina looking pattern the last 2 seasons. ENSO conditions, unless extreme, are becoming less relevant as the world warms.
  23. SnoSki14
    Maybe another record temperature drop in the works. From 80s to 30s in late October.
  24. SnoSki14
    Outside of tomorrow it looks fairly mild from now till Wednesday. Temps will be near 70 or better, lows in the upper 40s/low 50s. It'll get cool for like 2 days before the next big warm surge. Big bust this week.
  25. SnoSki14
    Dodged the rains to my west and east. Chilly & breezy though at only 54F. Those 70s this weekend will feel nice.
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