SnoSki14

We've missed out on a blazing summer past several years. I think we're due for one. High temp/high dew combo in the works?

The nightmare is almost over. I'm actually a lot more optimistic about this spring. Right now it doesn't look like a repeat of past years' cold/wet blocky springs. This is definitely my worst winter ever. Worse than 11/12 & 01/02 which were a lot less murky. Snow wise it's about the same. This year we got the worst/ugliest pattern possible with the worst teleconnections you could find. Honestly the warmth & lack of snow easily could've been worse but the pattern gave us just slightly better conditions on this side of the globe vs Europe which saw the warmest winter ever.

The evolution for late Feb to start March looks similar to late Oct/early November. This would fit well with raindancewx's forecast actually. If this idea proves correct then March could turn out a lot colder/stormier than many are expecting. It could be a false flag but the idea of a cold end of Feb/early March is looking more likely as supported by ensembles.

March is a lot more fickle with regard to teleconnections. The rapidly shifting wavelengths can alter their signals particularly if they're very weak. And right now they're looking pretty weak to start March.

Nice hit for Eastern NC on the GFS.

They have a legit shot at a moderate snow event. Anything to add to our misery.

It's time to give it a rest and better luck next year (as far as snow is concerned). Next year by default can't get any worse, which is the only good news to come from this winter.

Only 13F right now, coldest night of the winter. A good early bug killer so I'll take it.

Tonight will probably be the coldest night of the season. 12F is the current forecast. Afterwards there'll be one more cold shot next week and then we should fully moderate and finally put this miserable winter behind us. It'll be interesting to see how the current pattern reacts with the seasonal changes though. There's some talks of a cold April a la 1990 and that seems very possible at this juncture. Course by then it'd be useless and just lead to a chilly/wet month.

The AO could hit +6 or better again after just breaking that record 2 days ago. The north Atlantic system will likely be sub 920mb (record is 914mb) and if that AO is any indication then they'll be more severely low pressure storms in the near future. Iceland and NW Europe are gonna take a lot of beatings.

Abysmal 1st half of Feb. Nonstop dreariness and it's just cold enough to irritate you.

A couple quick cold shot over next week that'll remind folks it's still February. Tomorrow's chill will feel arctic after past several days (weeks) of mild weather.

Yeah it's definitely a wrap. This is the most hostile winter pattern I've ever seen. I'm actually in awe how extreme it is on the unfavorable scale. It's amazing we've recorded any snowfall honestly. Don't know if March will torch but it seems very possible given the teleconnections.

Apparently the record for non-tropical low pressure is 914mb so this could get close. Should be a stunning sight to behold.

Latest GFS is 916 Incredible if it verifies.

Yes it'll definitely feel colder than usual. They'll be some nice winds to go along with the chill too. Wind chills could be in the single digits Friday night for the city, colder N&W.

Very benign honestly. Most winters we'd see at least one single digit reading. And it has moderated considerably from what was shown a few days ago. I think it'll continue to moderate. Probably mid to upper 30s Fri/Sat highs and upper teens to low 20s for lows.

I agree with the 3 months of March comparison. The rainy weather has really ramped up after a rather benign January, which just ups the dreariness of it all. Don't see the active pattern ending anytime soon.

So far there's no signs of a major pattern change for March so you could be right. However models won't pick up on the seasonal changes until late Feb. If nothing changes by Feb 20 then this pattern will stick into March. There's a possibility that April turns out to be the cold month but by then it really doesn't matter.

The pattern seems very locked in. There's honestly zero changes on the horizon going into late Feb and no I'm not buying whatever crap the 11-15 day GEFS is showing. I think a big March turnaround is looking more and more unlikely right now.

Maybe the complete opposite will occur within a few years and we'll set new snowfall records. Still it's amazing how despite having the worst teleconnections possible that we still have more snowfall than a handful of other years.

Yet another extreme record set over past few years.

This year's bug/mosquito problem could be horrendous. Lack of cold + wet weather is a recipe for disaster in the spring and summer. Also early vegetation growth in the south could be threatened with late season cold shots.

Not surprised.

Will probably modify into 30s and low 20s at night.