Volcanic Winter

You also can't have people preparing for this literally Friday. IMO we shouldn't project our disappointment on the fact that they started telling people about the storm's potential. Very tough situation with the models split like that, unless their meteorologists were prepared to toss the Euro completely and commit to the GFS no way you can't bypass giving the millions of people that live here ample notice given the potential for a very, very potent storm. I work in an area related to this, if they waited much longer and this pans out, it would be absolutely nightmarish on Friday.

Boxing Day was my favorite storm of all time, and I was a kid for 96. Still like my memories of 2010 best out of all the storms I've seen here in NJ the past 30 years. Was in North Brunswick at the time.

I'm taking a break. Some of you should, too. Clear mind, clear thoughts. Refresh and come back to it later. Along with what was posted about the Tweet from Mike Masco I've read some about this being an anomalous run of the Euro that flubbed positioning a bit. I'd say room for a bit of optimism. See you hotdogs later.

Anyone have a read on what professional forecasters are saying at this juncture, if anything? Can't dig too deep while at work. Just enough time to relentlessly refresh this thread lol.

Most people have no concept of the extreme volatility AGW will force into the climate system.

It's an emotional thing, no doubt. I don't hold it against anyone. I feel like I need AA after this, whatever happens.

The lack of forecasters popping in and weighing in here reflects the uncertainty right now IMO. We're also not seeing anyone so far saying to give it up yet, because it's too early.. Is there writing on the wall for disappointment? Yeah, probably. If the Euro holds and the NAM continues with a good look as it gets closer inside its range, I'd say there's still hope for a good event.

Let's wait for upcoming runs before jumping off the ledge, k guys? Everyone expected shifts, if they hold or worsen then it's time to worry. Let's see how the Euro responds.

Hi Doorman. I'd like that with a side of fries please. And gravy.

If the NAM stays in our corner especially as the hours tick by that should be a nice boost of credibility to the Euro solution. Could the GFS just not be correctly modeling the phase and thus is skewing the runs?

Thanks USCG, that actually answered some earlier questions of mine. Great post.

Think of it in the context of those with frail or elderly parents, or those with loved ones otherwise reliant on care. Not everyone is fully self reliant and a major storm can be a difficult challenge. Yes plowing happens quick these days but in a storm that's not riding 32 degrees the roads can definitely stay very messy until it warms. Not as much for those in the city, but in general combined with the massive population of the area and you get the NJ special snow panic frenzy.

QPF is really the best thing to look at, or?

The Euro has me feeling weak in the knees. Have to continue to be somewhat skeptical until the GFS adjusts west again. The storm as modeled for my area (Tom's River, work in Union) would be one of the all time biggest snowfalls. Insane. Even 75% of these latest totals would be simply mad (ticking down for wind or missed banding etc). But there's precedent for the Euro spitting out ludicrous results only to correct shortly before showtime, right? Hoping this isn't one of those times, but again just trying to stay tempered while there's still divergence between Euro and GFS.

I remember the thread for our second snow event of Jan. Lots of uncertainty, then a wild Forky appeared and confidently told us all to enjoy the snow... And snow it did.

Gonna ask a couple tough questions: 1) Lot of people here have been saying the GFS has been outperforming the Euro on our snow threats this January; why would this be different? Non-rhetorical or pointed, I'm genuinely asking if this is a different case. 2) I hear a lot of "the Euro normally overamps," so why would this be different considering it's the same situation we're staring down (the Euro looking strong and aggressive, the GFS weaker and OTS). Just playing devil's advocate and trying to broaden my knowledge. I want to latch onto the Euro and snuggle it in bed with me here shortly (if I can even sleep), but I'm getting that lump in my throat I had several years ago during The Storm That Shall Not Be Named where I sat looking at my radar and nearly punted my phone out the window. Not an equivalent circumstance, of course - as is probably best they've been very conservative in hyping this and we're much further out.

In a quick stroll through Twitter, man a lot of forecasters are disregarding the crushjob OP Euro run. I get it, certainly. But a lot acting like it's not a possible outcome (or even in the ballpark of possible). I think NWS Mt Holly telling NJ to expect a 6 inch storm. Seems like many are favoring the GFS here. Certainly seems like a decent risk for a big part of NJ to get more than 6 inch at this point, but I certainly get the hesitation after 2015 and with a set up like this.

Nothing would make me happier than getting sick snowfall here in coastal NJ while all you guys also rock out up north. Let's do this! (No whammies)

Okay, can someone just let me know if it's too soon yet to put my wetsuit and snorkel on and go lay out to on the grass?

All things considered, I still think we're in a really good spot for this. If the Euro changed course this morning it'd be one thing, but it's holding strong and adding the RGEM on board? I'll take it. I like that even the GFS has my area getting a few inches; that's a nice consolation prize. Long ways to go.

Good example of how sensitive this is. GFS hangs that initial piece of energy back just a bit, and it's enough to kick the storm out east. Probably good even if this is an anomalous run, because I'm letting myself get too amped. The hype must flow but hype is also the mind killer, in a bit of a paradox.

The trend is your friend, until it's your enemy. I think Napoleon said that.

Welp, that would be a mixing nightmare for me down in Ocean Co. Hoping to see us all stay snow. Boxing Day was so special for that (though I lived in North Brunswick at the time, it performed beautifully where I live now).

I took it that current guidance favors NE, but historical model bias (and current trends) suggests we're still very much in the game, and even compared to other major events. Not bad at this point IMO. The set up is clearly extremely delicate however, and it's really tough to start feeling excitement knowing how easily / quickly this could crumble.